Signet Gbl GBP Share Discussion Threads

[deepvalueinvestor] 19/2/2013 19:04

My frustration regarding the current cash figure shouldn't hide the value I see on a 3 year view versus equities, bonds etc. They are clearly not guessing nav but investors wanted a liquidity profile updated monthly and this was perhaps not realistic.

Elmfield, what are you expecting from sigg on a 3 month, 1 year and 3 year view? Oh and if you are buying, do so at 57p in the auctions at 11am and 3pm. Every little helps!

[elmfield] 19/2/2013 18:19

I just can't press the buy button, not sure why but something niggles!

[badtime] 19/2/2013 18:11

How much 'guessing' of the NAV been going on

[tiltonboy] 19/2/2013 18:09

It shouldn't be a case of guessing, the terms of each of it's investments should be known.

[deepvalueinvestor] 19/2/2013 17:57

Not much to say other than shared surprise. New management apparently feel that liquidity can't be so easily guessed so expect quarterly rather than monthly reports. Gottex will report to the Board next week then hopefully we will get further clarity after that.

[tiltonboy] 19/2/2013 10:44

dvi,

I would be interested in hearing what Numis have to say. I would normally ring Nathan myself, but no point us both doing it. I'm sure you will post your findings.

[jaws6] 19/2/2013 08:12

early move today

[deepvalueinvestor] 18/2/2013 21:15

I agree tiltonboy, it does amaze me that previous management did a month by month liquidity profile and could be so far out after only one month! I think we were all assuming that the end Jan cash figure was simply funds winding up last month and that it would be 13p ish. I will raise this with Numis tomorrow.

However, the bigger picture is that the nav is racing away from the share price and this can only be good news for patient shareholders.

[tiltonboy] 18/2/2013 20:37

dvi,

How can they get the short-term liquidity profile so badly wrong? They issued notice to managers so they should have paid out...if they could. I understand there could be slippage in the over one year category, but the short term, I'm struggling to reason why!

[deepvalueinvestor] 18/2/2013 20:33

Now that is the question indeed! It depends on your timeframe and view on other assets classes. I am bearish on equities, bonds and gold so happy with the risk profile here and feel it is a useful diversifer in difficult times.

[elmfield] 18/2/2013 20:12

Shall I shan't I, just can't decide, are we cheap?

[deepvalueinvestor] 18/2/2013 19:48

Nav showed modest gains in the underlying assets on top of the expected currency boost. This means that a current currency adjusted nav should be 98.1p as we creep towards the 100p mark and the long term bull case strengthens again.

However, as I suspected after the conference call, the cash figure is less than the previous management's estimate ( guesstimate, in reality). The indication was 13.9p per share of cash but current figure is 7.6p. This means that you are paying 48.9 p for 90.5p of estimated non cash assets and this represents a 46% discount.

At this stage we don't know if the shares are unfairly cheap but I feel relaxed about my stake as I can take a 3 year view.Although I have been lobbying for some currency hedging back to sterling, to lock in some of the recent gains, I am in a minority so expect our fortunes going forward to be tied to the expertise of Gottex and the level of weakness in sterling.

On balance, marginally better than I expected and I would expect to see a further upwards rerating of the share price over the next few months to 60p+. Not exciting stuff but steady as she goes until we get a full report from Gottex.

[tiltonboy] 18/2/2013 19:20

Nice NAV and in line with dvi's calculations. However, the pay-off profile is a concern if they can't even get the short-term calcs right, what hope have we got for the longer timescale.

[badtime] 18/2/2013 18:00

Yes but there was a nice 200k buy after lol

[praipus] 18/2/2013 17:30

Hmm 1 share buy is an old shorters strategy to entitle them to all the company info.

[badtime] 18/2/2013 16:56

I just want to say that 1 share buy after the bell wasn't me

[briangeeee] 18/2/2013 16:48

So £5.67m against the previous management's estimate of £10.4m at this stage. I guess with the changes there hasn't been much effort by (either the last or new) management on near term redemptions.

[hezza123] 18/2/2013 15:52

RNS: "Gottex Asset Management (UK) Limited, the Investment Manager to the Company, has announced today that the current performance estimate for January 2013 is approximately + 3.76% (GBP share class) with an estimated NAV for January 2013 of approximately 96.37p. The total cash held by the Company as at 31(st) January 2013 was GBP5,675,398."

:-)

[tiltonboy] 18/2/2013 11:54

Encouraging to see somebody has taken over the buying baton from dvi. Consistent stuff, and into strength.

[deepvalueinvestor] 15/2/2013 22:49

I dont think we are going to get the results of their globe hopping quite yet. As you, say if they produced a revised nav at a lower level then that might actually build confidence but I dont think it is likely to happen. The liquidity profile is my biggest concern.

[tiltonboy] 15/2/2013 22:11

dvi,

Absolutely. The next NAV will hopefully include any any provisions Gottex feel they should make, if they have now had chance to look at most of the assets. I am more interested in NAV than timeframe at the moment, but would still like a decent return this year.

I would be happier seeing a full and frank review, coming out with a revised NAV of 75-80p, which would indicate they have given consideration to what they have seen.

[deepvalueinvestor] 15/2/2013 21:33

tiltonboy, the nav updates over the next month will be the big story. We will also get an idea of cash and future liquidity from Gottex. I don't mind the seller as long as their offer rises every few days as it has done recently.

[badtime] 15/2/2013 20:42

lol...do u think they would take Zig off yur hands

[tiltonboy] 15/2/2013 18:38

He just confirmed that he has a large seller....still.

It wasn't a meeting about SIGG, he was up in Brum, so we shared a few beers, and a general chat about matters, before I took the p!$$ out of the Vile!

[deepvalueinvestor] 15/2/2013 18:36

Ah ok, never met but sometimes use his services. Anything interesting come out of meeting? By the way, looks like I failed to get any hedging here but perhaps that will work in our favour anyway with Sterling looking sick. Hopefully when get an idea of January nav soon.