Shoe Zone Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 21/4/2015 16:36

Masurenguy - Your ususal insightful comment - summed up in a nutshell. You still living on that windy rock ??

Thanks for reposting your 17th Aug comment - Agreed - A wise family decision (with hindsight) to diversify risk - BUT ........ (commsnt witheld !!)

[nivensxx] 21/4/2015 16:31

Have reduced my ( not inconsiderable )holding by 2/3rds. Feel better, although my SIPP is definitely poorer now.

[masurenguy] 21/4/2015 16:21

Hmmmm..............I think that todays price warning has damaged management credibility especially after their positive outlook comments in the January prelim statement. I took a look at the company last summer just after their IPO and also visited a couple of shops to get a flavour of their retail model. I held back from investing here, despite the 50% price surge between August 14 and February 15, mainly due to the basis upon which they had undertaken their IPO, as I previously posted in response to a comment from jakes114 last summer.

I will continue to monitor the stock although I still have considerable reservations about the alignment of management interests with those of the external shareholders.

Masurenguy - 17 Aug'14 - 21: An interesting comment Jakes114. I like this company and its business model BUT there are a couple of negatives that have inhibited me from investing so far.
1. This was a private family business owned and run by the Smiths who cashed up a 45% stake for £36m at the IPO. None of the IPO cash was reinvested in the business and they still retain a majority 55% stake and run the company. This means they have the leverage to still control and operate the business to their personal advantage which may not coincide with the best interests of the external shareholders.
2. In my experience an IPO is usually undertaken for one of three reasons.
a) Raise money for expansion.
b) Pay down debt.
c) Enable private shareholders to realise their investment by partially or totally cashing out.
I favour a) rather than c) as an investment criterion although I note that Gervais Williams has taken a significant stake here and he is a small cap fund manager whom I respect. I will continue to watch from the sidelines until I can overcome the two reservations that I have detailed above.

[pugugly] 21/4/2015 15:59

MM's holding offer steady at 185 or 186 - Someone seems to be taking stock. A gambler or someone close to the coy who suspects not as bad as perceived ??

However - IMO- Managment may have expanded too fast and taken their eye off the buying and stock contol functions - If I am half way right potentailly far more pain to come.

Nothing falls in price faster than out of style shoes - Most girls would not be seen dead in them even if given them for free (IN MY HUMBLE OPINION)

Do we have any female customers of SHOE on this thread who can comment on the current offering and styles?

[clocktower] 21/4/2015 15:26

They picked a good time to float it and if the prices falls with further bad news they can always buy it back for a song.

[reddave999] 21/4/2015 14:59

ankle boots apparently were the big seller not knee length boots!

[deanroberthunt] 21/4/2015 14:20

not the next ASOS then.......

[deanroberthunt] 21/4/2015 14:19

sleepy hollow....even the intraday chart is asleep....

[aishahq] 21/4/2015 13:17

Paul Scott is a holder and he is less than complimentary:



If the dividend hadn't been cut, I may have still held and weathered the storm. But in my experience, you only cut the dividend when things are really bad and I have been proved right more often than not. They say profit warning's come in 3's, so I'll wait until after a couple of sets of results/poss further profit warnings to see where the business is then. My hunch is their is more bad news to come.

[ptgint] 21/4/2015 11:58

I'm holding to, Redrumtum.

[reddave999] 21/4/2015 11:27

I'm with you on this one nivensxx having taken a big loss too :(

[nivensxx] 21/4/2015 11:03

Taken a heavy loss at these prices. My experience tells me that it only the first batch of bad news. Divi cuts reduce credibility. Nobody likes that. I agree management can not be trusted to do a good job now. Expectations were probably too high, including mine. Hopefully, i will be sensible and sell today at the best price I can get - although I hate yielding to market makers.

[ed 123] 21/4/2015 09:59

From today's rns ...

Overall revenues and profit for H1 will be behind the prior year and full year results are expected to be below market expectations, with the dividend being adjusted accordingly.

I reads to me that the dividend was planned to be a proportion of profit. As profit will be lower than expected, the dividend will be proportionately lower too.

They should have a good idea where H1 profit will be now, and that probably explains the timing of this rns. Interims will be released in two months. If it is simply a matter of poor weather, then turnover and profit should recover the following year (assuming the weather follows a normal pattern).

I suppose it's a case of, 'Do you believe them?' Only time will tell.

[saj3] 21/4/2015 09:56

Joe say - yes story might change and go even worse than it is! If you decide to hold good luck to you

[joe say] 21/4/2015 09:47

Saj - tbf even if you have read the RNS whose to say the story won't change in 3 months time?

;)

[saj3] 21/4/2015 09:37

Slops they have cut the divi read the RNS

[slogsweep] 21/4/2015 09:34

Aldi and Lidl have taught the UK consumer you don't have to pay high prices to get the goods you need.

Shoe were proposing to more than triple the divi to over 12p! even if it stays the same at 3.6 they are yielding 2% at this price. So profits are going to be dented for a half, so what, if its due to the weather reducing demand for stock ordered a year ago I can't blame management for that. Hopefully they can sell it next year if not the loss on stock is not the issue its cash flow can they get enough of the stuff people are buying.

Only slight concern is number of larger sales going through - do they know something I don't?

[bulltradept] 21/4/2015 09:15

Not quite sure we have a stronger economy mind...

[aishahq] 21/4/2015 09:08

Because the shares are so tightly held and liquidity is so low, only us smaller holders have been able to get out early at 'reasonable' prices. Now bigger holders are being allowed to exit (10-20k plus shares), at much lower prices because they have to accept whatever is given, we can see the share price being hammered even further. I think that trend may well continue for a little while.

As to what's not to like; how about management that can't be trusted, cut dividends, warmer weather for the second half which means lower sales of higher margin winter boots, uncertainty over how bad the numbers actually will be as no guidance was given, low liquidity, high spreads, stronger economy meaning people are more able to buy higher priced footwear elsewhere, increased competition from online retailers, etc

Have I missed anything...?

[reddave999] 21/4/2015 09:06

Tragic to say the least, I am relatively new to this game and whilst I did plenty of research on this one I have just been taught a real lesson. Hey ho I suppose the best thing is to keep cool and get back on my bike:)

[mrx9000] 21/4/2015 09:05

What looks cheap can get cheaper in my opinion. If things were all rosy and tickety boo than there would of been no need to cut/reduce the dividend. A poor RNS in my opinion. I do not rate the management after these announcements. Thankfully just a 0.5% overall loss.

[skip10] 21/4/2015 08:59

The weather forecast is wonderful and they make their money from nice warm shoes?

[macarre] 21/4/2015 08:54

Slogsweep - nobody can claim you don't fly the flag for shoe....