Shire Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 08/7/2014 13:26

shot up but only those not having a coffee break could have got out . Quite a pullback and probably in buying territory at #46.50 level !

[snowydays] 05/7/2014 08:55

AbbVie to send Chief Research Officer to London to court investors.

I'm not sure this is going to make much difference. Investors want a higher offer.

[arja] 04/7/2014 07:39

might be dangerous to hold over the weekend I guess but I think eventually there will be an increased offer and the share price suggests that !

[snowydays] 03/7/2014 17:33

AbbVie give no indication to shareholdres of whether they will increase their offer. They wish to see Shire's accounts in more detail.

[arja] 01/7/2014 10:45

surprised it is so weak today as closed at about £45.90 in USA ! tempting to re-enter for a trade but will rely on intra-day chart to give an idea of entry point !

[snowydays] 30/6/2014 18:07

Shire projected takeover value £54. Current price likely to be the floor even if no bid emerges.

[snowydays] 30/6/2014 00:08

AbbVie to increase their offer but remain "disciplined" on price.

Interesting that AbbVie will not be able to move their tax status to Ireland unless Shire shareholders hold at least 20% of the enlarged group.

[arja] 29/6/2014 21:26

bit soon to sell I reckon but why not hedge by a short sell with a CFD as a kind of insurance .

[adamb1978] 29/6/2014 18:32

Been thinking about whether to bank the profits.

If the deal doesn't happen, then the share price will fall back to say £35, so a bit over 20% downside.

If the deal does happen at say £50, there's about 10% upside.

If you then look at probability weighting the potential outcomes, then on this basis you'd need to believe that there's about two-thirds chance that the deal will happen in order to justify the price. (or instead believe that the probability is lower but the likely acquisition price is higher than £50)

I think I might sell tomorrow morning - in a year when gains are difficult to come by, risking a 20% loss from here seems reckless

[snowydays] 29/6/2014 09:00

"THE boss of the American drug company trying to buy British rival Shire will fly into London this week to court investors amid expectations of an increase in his £27bn takeover proposal.

"Rick Gonzalez, chairman and chief executive of AbbVie, maker of Humira, an arthritis treatment that is the world's top-selling drug, will woo key Shire shareholders to win support for a proposed purchase.

"He has already had three offers rejected out of hand, the last of which valued Shire at £46.11 a share, equivalent to £27bn. Bankers expect AbbVie to increase that to more than £50 once it has canvassed investors."

[arja] 28/6/2014 19:17

thanks for that snowydays and looks like there is more in SHP to come - I see it recovered in USA after an earlier dip which augurs well foe SHP here on monday .

[snowydays] 28/6/2014 09:51

I'm holding for now. Takeover seems the most likely outcome to me.

Here is a bullish article in Barrons suggesting that "A knockout blow could be 20% to 30% above Friday's closing price of 45.70 British pounds ($77.86) a share" and that a new bidder entering the fray is very possible.



If that links doesn't work try clicking this instead.

[jamielein] 27/6/2014 23:02

I sold as I didn't think there'd be a huge upside from the current price.

As a standalone company I now believe they're overvalued.

I asked myself "would I buy them now?" and the answer was a definite no, as I view it as a gamble on whether there's going to be a higher bid or not.

[adamb1978] 27/6/2014 22:34

Am weighing up whether to sell now and bag the profit which is on the table. Risk obviously being that if the deal doesn't happen then the share price will drop back to say £35. Reason for not selling is potentially higher bid might emerge or competing bidder show up.

Whats other doing?

[snowydays] 27/6/2014 14:02

Yes, the proposed term are about £47 per share with the rise in the AbbVie shareprice.

It looks as if both sides want the deal and they are just haggling over price now.

Let's hope another bidder or two emerge soon. That could be very profitable.

[arja] 27/6/2014 13:30

AbbVIe has a lovely looking NOR chart too which is a bit unusual being the bidder !

[arja] 27/6/2014 09:07

it certainly goes remorselessly northwards and closed at £45.86 in USA which is LEAD market !

[snowydays] 27/6/2014 07:57

Flemming Ornskov, Shire's chief executive, on Friday forecast a doubling in annual revenues to $10bn by 2020 as he laid out the case for independence.

Mr González said the projection was more optimistic than AbbVie's own analysis of Shire's prospects, but signalled flexibility over price if the UK company agreed to enter talks.

He said AbbVie was "willing to move quickly and co-operatively to engage ... with a view to achieving a transaction for the benefit of all shareholders". However, Mr González did not rule out a hostile bid if Shire continued to resist, and said AbbVie planned talks with the UK company's shareholders to seek their backing for a deal.

[arja] 26/6/2014 16:03

thanks sport - I will try that .

[snowydays] 26/6/2014 14:12

Try clicking this link and then answering a simple question.

[arja] 26/6/2014 14:02

could not read it as not a subscriber

[snowydays] 26/6/2014 11:16

Shire Pharmaceuticals says it is open to takeover at right price

[arja] 25/6/2014 16:26

SHP in usa taking it higher and who knows where it will be at 9pm although quite often profot taking occurs alter in session ! AZN now recovering and a nice looking chart pattern !

[arja] 25/6/2014 14:05

smile ! I suppose when there are just vague bid rumours a deal does not eventuate or at least in the short term- but a firm proposal is a different thing !

[steeplejack] 25/6/2014 13:28

Yes,these deals never happen,of course they don't.Beechams never merged with Glaxo,Astra never took over Zeneca and the multiplicity of deals done in the USA pharmaceutical industry are but a figment of investors imagination.