Shell Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 25/11/2016 17:49

EJ

Google 'pitchfork analysis'.

[bracke] 25/11/2016 11:13

A chart is worth a thousand words.

[the grumpy old men] 25/11/2016 10:59

BP could end 2016 above 500p per share says Zak Mir
10:31 25 Nov 2016
BP Plc could see another leg up and close out 2016 above 500p per share, according to technical analyst Zak Mir.

In a Tip TV segment for Proactive Investors the chartist highlights the positive trend in the oil supermajor’s share price since June, thanks in part to steadier oil prices and the Brexit boost on the US dollar.

He says the base of the trend channel is 440p, while the top is presently seen up to 520p.

“We’re looking for that target on a one to two month timeframe …. the 50 day average at 464p is rising, so it looks as though we’ve got a new leg up towards 500p plus by the end of the year,” Mir says.

[waldron] 16/11/2016 13:51

Oil industry faces boom-and-bust, warns IEA energy group

2 hours ago
From the section Business

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Image copyright AP

A new oil industry boom-and-bust cycle is likely if the current reduction in new investment is not reversed, says the International Energy Agency.

The IEA says unless more money is spent exploring for, and developing, new oil fields, then demand may outstrip supply in the early years of the next decade.

That could see oil prices surging again, says the IEA, which represents 29 energy-producing countries.

Investment in new oil supplies last year was at its lowest since the 1950s.

"We estimate that, if new project approvals remain low for a third year in a row in 2017, then it becomes increasingly unlikely that demand... and supply can be matched in the early 2020s without the start of a new boom/bust cycle for the industry," says the IEA's World Energy Outlook report.

Over-supply of oil has driven down crude prices in recent years.

They have fallen from their recent peak of more than $100 a barrel in 2014, to less than $30 a barrel earlier this year.
Price fall

As a result, investment in new oil fields has also fallen from $780bn in 2014, to $580bn in 2015, and then to $440bn this year.

The IEA says world-wide investment must now rise to at least $700bn a year because it takes between three and six years for a new oil field to start producing.

The Opec oil producers' cartel made a similar point last week.

"While the recent oil market environment has been one of oversupply, it is vital that the industry ensures that a lack of investments today does not lead to a shortage of supply in the future," said Opec's annual report.

The crude oil price is currently about $46 a barrel, have fallen dramatically over the last two years.

[grupo] 14/11/2016 08:43

Shell vs BP: which oil giant should you buy?

0 Comments
BP sign
Experts are split over which stock has the best investment case Credit: Dave Thompson/PA Wire

James Connington

14 November 2016 • 8:18am

In the hunt for income‑producing stocks, BP and Royal Dutch Shell are two obvious candidates.

Both have so far kept dividend promises made before the oil price crash, leading to hefty yields: 7pc for BP and 6.7pc at Shell. But which firm is better placed to sustain such attractive dividends?

At first glance, it can look like splitting hairs. Each is prioritising dividend payments, although there is little chance of dividend growth.

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Both have taken significant action to cut costs and sell assets in response to the lower oil price.

They are also evenly matched on dividend cover, which is the ratio of a company's net profit to the amount promised in dividend payments.

In other words, it's a measure of a company's ability to pay a dividend from profits alone.

According to the latest figures, for 2016, Shell’s dividend cover is 0.5 and BP’s is 0.4, meaning neither is paying its dividend purely out of profit. Both have a forecast of 1 for next year, according to broker AJ Bell.

But there are key differences: Shell spent £40bn to buy BG Group, a rival firm, earlier this year, while the financial cost of the Deepwater Horizon accident was disastrous for BP.

Liz Dhillon, an analyst at investment manager Quilter Cheviot, prefers Shell.

She said: “I was positive on Shell’s takeover of BG. It has effectively bought future reserves, which all big companies are struggling to replace. I think it has sufficient flexibility in terms of costs and asset sales to maintain the dividend.”

Ms Dhillon said Shell’s “dividend first” policy might have to change if the oil price performed poorly, but “in a reasonably positive scenario I think the dividend is safe”.

She added: “I don’t dislike BP, and again don’t see much short-term threat to the dividend. My longer-term concerns are its focus on higher-risk areas such as Russia and the lack of growth in new exploration. It will need to spend more.”

BP also sold out of “an awful lot of potential growth” to meet the cost of the Deepwater Horizon disaster, Ms Dhillon said.

Eric Moore, manager of the Miton Income fund, holds both firms in the top 10 of his portfolio. He prefers BP, but said the yield figures for both companies implied that the market didn’t think either was sustainable.

“Generally, things that yield more than 6pc don’t do so for long,” he said.

“They are both reliant on the idea that oil goes back to $60 by the end of the decade. If you want to hang your hat on those yields, you can’t get away from that.”

His preference for BP stems from the timing of cost cutting and investment by each firm.
How to buy shares online Play! 02:17

“Shell spoke of a $70‑$110 range and kept spending assuming $100 oil. It has belatedly been cutting costs and canning projects, but its behaviour is cyclical, investing at the top and cutting at the bottom,” he said.

Mr Moore said he would like to see Shell investing now, while there are cheap assets and less competition for new oilfields. By comparison, he said BP had been making cuts and selling assets far earlier, putting it in a better position to invest now.

[grupo guitarlumber] 11/11/2016 14:10

The blue chip index fell 1% to 6,759 as Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) declined by 3.3% on a double whammy of weaker oil prices and a stronger pound.

[supermarky] 11/11/2016 13:06

What's going on with rdsb today? It's having a mare

[discodave4] 10/11/2016 21:32

Waldron/drectlyThanks, had forgotten today was ex div day.DD

[drectly] 10/11/2016 16:01

just checked the ex divi date, ADVFN have Nov 1st instead of the 10th as it is, just a typo. Then just check the yield and it looks high, 8.6 instead of the real 7% and they have used cents instead of p. Is it that hard to get correct.
For mistakes I can just do it myself.
Anyway, even at 7% it is a great divi if they can maintain it.

[waldron] 09/11/2016 15:14

Dividend timetable for the third quarter 2016 interim dividend

Announcement
date November
1, 2016

Ex-dividend date RDS A and RDS B ADSs November 8,
2016

Ex-dividend date RDS A and RDS B shares November
10, 2016

Record
date
November 11, 2016

Scrip reference share price announcement date November
17, 2016

Closing of scrip election and currency election (See Note) November 25,
2016

Pounds sterling and euro equivalents announcement date December 2, 2016

Payment
date
December 16, 2016

[stevenrevell] 09/11/2016 14:59

Is this xdivi tomoz

[abarclay] 09/11/2016 05:23

Damn I filled the tank last night


Lol. Down 200p at open?

[steve73] 09/11/2016 05:06

With Trump looking more likely to win, both the USD and oil appear to be taking a hammering (and the Mexican Peso even more so). Oil down c. $1.5, and $ >1% vs. GBP.

So in GBP terms oil is dropping even more - which could be argued is good for UK businesses (other than the oilers).

But with these external factors hurting oil, it should persuade OPEC to try to get agreement just that little bit harder.

For Shell, OPEC is the main event - the POTUS is merely a side show.

[waldron] 08/11/2016 20:58

Stocks will drop ‘no matter who wins’ the election, strategists predict
Alex Rosenberg | @AcesRose
2 Hours AgoCNBC.com











5
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Trading Nation: Stocks rise pre-election
Trading Nation: Stocks rise pre-election
Monday, 7 Nov 2016 | 2:42 PM ET | 03:18
‹

03:18
Trading Nation: Stocks rise pre-election
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11/07/16 2:42 PM ET
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›

As America heads to the polls, Wall Street appears to be hitting the "buy" button.

The S&P 500 is following up a 2.2 percent rally on Monday with a 0.5 percent gain on Tuesday. If the market closes at the level at which it finds itself after three hours of trading, then the market will have logged its best two-session stretch since the post-Brexit bounce at the end of June.
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Notably, this two-day bounce follows a nine-session losing streak for the S&P — the longest such run since 1980.

The sharp turnabout appears to be driven by traders' rising perceptions that Hillary Clinton will win the election. Among traders and financial strategists, Donald Trump is widely seen as a wildcard whose victory would lead to more uncertainty for the market.

Still, some say that the initial move should be faded, whatever it happens to be.

"A Hillary Clinton win gets you a slam dunk rally to be sold, a Trump win gets you a 10-15 percent plunge which should be bought," Larry McDonald of ACG Analytics wrote in a Tuesday note.

On the other hand, Miller Tabak equity strategist Matt Maley says that the entire bounce that had been expected on a Clinton victory may have already happened.

"It seems like we're setting up for a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' reaction," Maley wrote in a Tuesday afternoon note. This means that, like McDonald, he sees the outcome as a bit of a lose-lose situation.

"The market should now pull back no matter who wins ... it will just pull back more if Trump wins."

In another notable Tuesday move, the Mexican peso is rising sharply against the dollar. This currency pair has been closely watched for indications of Trump's chances, given that a core of the Republican candidate's platform is the restriction of international trade — a policy that could be expected to hurt the Mexican economy.

As a Clinton win has appeared to increase in probability, expectations for the size of the market's moves this week have fallen. Option prices currently show that the market is expected to move about 2 percent through Friday's close.

Alex RosenbergProducer

[ariane] 08/11/2016 14:41

r72

nothin can be taken as gospel

but some say the usdollar will fall thus impacting adversely on oil price and shares

due to a TRUMP WIN

Theres a lot more things out there affecting oil and shell etc

OPEC MEETING FOR STARTERS