Shell Share Discussion Threads

[badtime] 18/1/2016 15:28

Me to Sogoes lol

[whiskeyinthejar] 18/1/2016 15:26

I think once it becomes clear what Iran is able to produce without sanctions, they may be able to agree a cut all round.

You'd think Shell would have some idea of Saudi production plans as they jointly run a refinery in Saudi Arabia with Saudi Aramco. I can't remember the name of it, supposed to be the most advanced.

They also jointly run the biggest refinery in North America with Saudi Aramco. And I think another one in Japan.

Maybe not, maybe they don't share much. But I'm sure Ben knows more about oil market than Daily Mail anyway.

[sogoesit] 18/1/2016 15:22

Waiting for an answer to badtime's question Zyzz...

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 15:12

imo the deal will be pulled at the 11th hour. directors have their responsibilities to the shareholders.

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2016 15:04

Having come this far what OPEC appears to be attempting to do
is to scare the absolute sh1t out of the financiers of US shale oil
and some other producers.

I never thought crude would be back in the £20's, so where it goes from here ..

What I do have some experience of is where sentiment is this shocking it can turn
very quickly.

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 14:55

and demand side is poor also, including very bad data in US last week

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 14:53

latter looks much more likely. iran oil hasn't even started to hit the market yet.

[badtime] 18/1/2016 14:52

Which makes some sense

[rcturner2] 18/1/2016 14:50

My view is either we have a quick reversal to $50 to $60 (probably based on OPEC action) or we stay at a low $20 to $30 for 6-12 months, which will push plenty of producers to the wall and only then we will see supply tighten.

[badtime] 18/1/2016 14:33

Any chance of an answer?

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 14:31

they also have $16bn of debt. net debt grew by $1bn in Q3 alone to $10bn. imo as with petrobras it will need a fire sale if this deal is called off

[whiskeyinthejar] 18/1/2016 14:23

All oil and gas companies are facing revenue problems. That's kind of the point. Its also why the low price environment never lasts.

But Bg has $6 billion cash. $ 7 billion unused credit facility, average debt maturity of about 15 years, rising gas production and rising oil production.


Fields deplete without investment, production declines and right now investment has stalled. IIRC Shale needs $45 billion a year spent just to maintain production.

Even in opec, they aren't spending on oil. It's just a matter of time before a supply glut turns into a supply shortage.

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 14:13

petrobras is in a mess

hxxp://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/When-Will-Petrobras-Fire-Sale-Start.html

When Will Petrobras’ Fire Sale Start?

Petrobras’ shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange are down by 70 percent since May 2015, and they are down about 95 percent since hitting a peak in 2008.

The damage to the Petrobras’ financial performance is clear. But that, in turn, is severely cutting into the company’s long-term ability to produce oil and gas. On January 12, Petrobras once again revised its five-year oil production plan down.

The 2015-2019 plan now calls for just $98.4 billion in capital expenditures, down by $32 billion, or about 25 percent, from the original plan released last year. Years ago, when things were going swimmingly for Petrobras, its five-year spending plans routinely topped $200 billion.

The substantial spending cuts will translate into a much more modest 2020 oil production target. Petrobras now thinks it will be able to produce 2.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) by the end of the decade, which will only be slightly up from the 2.12 mb/d the company averaged in 2015. The target is about 100,000 barrels per day less than the most recent estimate from last year. But it stands in stark contrast to the company’s ambitions from a few years ago, when it projected that it would be able to produce 4 mb/d by 2020.

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 14:12

hxxp://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Forget-20-Oil-Prices-At-8-Per-Barrel-In-Canada.html

Forget $20 - Oil Prices At $8 Per Barrel In Canada

By Charles Kennedy
Posted on Thu, 14 January 2016 18:03 | 2
Where is the cheapest crude oil in the world? And how low can you get that barrel of oil?

WTI has declined to $30 per barrel, the lowest level in more than 12 years. But heavy oil producers in Canada would love to have $30 oil.

The price for a barrel of bitumen, the tar-like oil sands that comes from Alberta, fell to just over $8 per barrel this week. That is not a typo. Bitumen traded at $8.35 per barrel on Tuesday.

[badtime] 18/1/2016 14:05

Zz..just as a matter of interest do u have any finances tied up in Shell or BG be it short or long Just curious nothing more.

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 13:37

look at the BG Q3 results. the numbers were horrendous and they have $10bn of debt. with oil at current levels the business is a basket case. it is burning cash despite having $10bn debt. it is a shambles. so imo £2 is very possible.

imo shell must walk away if they have any care for their own shareholders.

[badtime] 18/1/2016 13:31

IMHO to suggest any figure based on pure guesswork is as useful as getting one by throwing a dart at a dartboard

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 12:39

BG has got $10bn net debt and burning huge cash even after slashing capital investment in Q3. imo BG will have to sell assets to survive if this deal falls through, so £2 is possible. look at the wipeouts across the E&P sector and most dont have much debt. imo for shell to pay £41bn for this basket case is absurd

[badtime] 18/1/2016 12:32

Ohhh £2 ...so the £4/5 per share that Shell shud pay next year u r suggesting on another thread seems a bit high

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 12:23

lets see the BG trading and operational update on wednesday. its Q3 results were a disaster, with EBIT down 70% and net debt growing by more than $1bn in just 3 months. so a break fee is not a problem.

imo BG shares could be at £2 if the deal is abandoned.

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 12:11

Shaggies_view

"Shell needs BG more than BG needs Shell."

LOL! this proposed deal is an absolute disaster for shell shareholders, will result in a massive asset writedown and dividend will be slashed. the math is not that difficult.

shell now has massively better options for spending £41bn.

without this deal BG is a basket case adding $4bn a year to its debt based on its Q3 results.

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2016 12:06

It's around $800 million from memory.

If we have a couple of better days market wise may have a run towards £14.20's
imv, although not counting on that given the pervasive gloom atm.

[badtime] 18/1/2016 12:02

That figure seems to make more sense considering the size of the deal

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 12:01

or going through with a massively value-destructive deal. BG burnt through $1bn of cash in Q3 alone.