Shell Share Discussion Threads

[kkclimber56] 09/12/2015 21:31

The message the Saudis need to get across is that as soon as they see drilling activity pick up in the USA they will again flood the market.

It may take a couple of cycles of

1. falling production leading to
2. price increases leading to
3. increased drilling leading to
4. increased production leading to
5. falling prices leading to
6. falling production

....before they get that message over.

[kkclimber56] 09/12/2015 21:30

The message the Saudis need to get across is that as soon as they see drilling activity pick up in the USA they will again flood the market.

It may take a couple of cycles of

1. falling production leading to
2. price increases leading to
3. increased drilling leading to
4. increased production leading to
5. falling prices leading to
6. falling production

....before they get that message over.

[4spiel] 09/12/2015 21:11

Shell will survive for sure and selling off assets to pay the diviidends short term. Hopefully oil will get back to 60 at least before long. Above there we have to be aware that from now on America will never be held to ransom by OPEC - whilst oil is cheap it stays in the ground but it's there as an insurance and guarantees that we will not see 140 dollars again. So let's hope gas prices get out of the doldrums too.

[sogoesit] 09/12/2015 16:33

Looks like bouncing around its long term lower trend line… for now!
Bought some BG as a cheaper way in yesterday.
Good luck!

[imperial3] 09/12/2015 13:30

I just wonder what the share price would be now,if the BG bid had not been made?

[jonwig] 09/12/2015 12:56

Careful - mostly in shares, but the fixed cash element adds a negative leverage which can't be ignored.

The rational supply response to falling demand ought to be to cut supply, but OPEC (and the rest) are increasing it to maintain cash flow. (Usually not by choice.)

And it appears that a lot of oil is stored offshore in tankers. The hire cost and supply of tankers are being squeezed, so more oli has to be released to the market.

Destruction of oil supply is the only possibility on the horizon: so widespread bankruptcies in US shale, maybe? But then look out for the financial crash in US and other banks.

[losos] 09/12/2015 12:53

careful - "2% increase in demand as predicted, plus a 2% decrease in supply would send oil rapidly towards $100."

Don't know where the 2% comes from but that is not a big number, demand could swing up 1% in a few months and at some point I think the Saudis will cut production.

Lot of negative comments right now and people hoping that shorting will make them a fortune, well let's wait and see.

[supermarky] 09/12/2015 12:16

Good post careful

[supermarky] 09/12/2015 12:14

Yes it is a very negative board at the moment. Shell might go bust 2016 lol

[careful] 09/12/2015 12:12

the bg deal is mostly paid for in Shell shares.
it gets cheaper by the day.
it will be great long term.

as for $29/barrel.
we have been lower than that before, then back up to $150.
a 2% increase in demand as predicted, plus a 2% decrease in supply would send oil rapidly towards $100.

it could happen quickly, and probably will.
hang on to your shell shares, they will never let you down long term.

[chairman20] 09/12/2015 12:07

And out to play come the de-rampers - what
a bunch od useless w....s.

[montyhedge] 09/12/2015 11:59

Most investors hoping for a juicy dividend, but beware value trap.I can't see them paying in full, perhaps a token dividend.Oil going to $29 in my opinion and cost of overpaying for BG.

[imperial3] 09/12/2015 11:15

Van Beurden has paid a too high price for BG,when there is so much oversupply of hydrocarbons.He is too optimistic on future direction of these products with his forecasts.He should have known this,as he is meant to be the expert,as who is suffering now,the shareholders.The reason why Iam still holding is because of the dividend because of the meagre returns elsewhere.I also accept that this could be under threat.

[4spiel] 09/12/2015 10:35

Maybe will get the Kindermorgan treatment-75 per cent dividend cut. Rich Kinder has a lot to answer for. So too have the management of Royal Dutch Shell.

[montyhedge] 09/12/2015 09:47

Here we go parachutes ready.

[montyhedge] 09/12/2015 09:08

1500p support level, if broken straight to 1435p, my view.Oil going below $30 my target.

[my retirement fund] 09/12/2015 09:05

Shell will most certainly look like a very different proposition with a far lower dividend yield.

Added to the bag it'll be the first dividend cut for two generations and a multi-billion dollar gas deal way too early at the tail end of a commodity boom, its really looking like a very ugly duckling indeed.

I suspect the shorters will really start moving in for the kill early 2016 as they become more confident that every present dividend declared will simply results in a lower and lower final valuation come late 2016/2017 when it will have to undergo the Anglo American treatment.

[montyhedge] 09/12/2015 08:57

To me dividend surely can't be paid with lower oil price and costs of crazy takeover.

[supermarky] 09/12/2015 08:51

My work sees 1400 next stop if yesterdays low 1490 doesn't hold. 1500 holding is critical and it is holding for now.. .Nobody saw poo going this low this fast. It can presumably do the reverse.

[montyhedge] 09/12/2015 08:49

Sellers 6 to 1 to buyers on L2 seems going lower.

[my retirement fund] 09/12/2015 08:37

The cash and shares offer looks overpriced, by at least 50% imo. Such madness could ruin shell for at least one if not two entire generations one moment of stupidity !

[montyhedge] 09/12/2015 08:33

They should walk away from BG, with all this uncertainty in oil and gas prices.

[supermarky] 09/12/2015 08:32

1500 area major support obviously. If this fails I will short

[montyhedge] 09/12/2015 08:27

Dead cat bounce, going lower.