Shell Share Discussion Threads

[svenice7] 12/9/2015 11:34

Last month goldman sucks said 60$ a barrel. GS make money from misleading everyone.

[the grumpy old men] 11/9/2015 21:43

4 POSSIBLE INTEREST

[sogoesit] 11/9/2015 11:04

Goldman Sucks says oil could fall to $20/bbl.

Based on its peak forecast of $200/bbl following which the market turned down it looks like we're close to the bottom :-)!

[bamboo2] 10/9/2015 10:53

Pennant. Change of shape and target lowered. Same b/o required.

[moneysage] 09/9/2015 21:51

Thanks Bamboo, really useful stuff.

[svenice7] 09/9/2015 21:29

Oil down again. £12 here we come.

[gymratt] 08/9/2015 22:10

Imperial,
The share price dropped to £12 during the banking crisis and the POO was a lot higher then, so never say never!
BTW , I'm long(..in my ISA).

[bamboo2] 08/9/2015 22:00

Hi moneysage, I found a code tucked away in the Forex tab. This is the pennant on the NYMEX:BZV15 chart. Needs eod close above upper trendline to activate target at 54.9

[moneysage] 08/9/2015 17:59

I could do with the Oil code for ADVFN Charts too please, anyone?

[bamboo2] 08/9/2015 17:19

Using the CRUD etf as a proxy for the Oil price, this chart shows an unconfirmed Pennant. Confirmation could occur over next day or two. Target 11.5.

Anyone know of an oil code for advfn charts?

[imperial3] 08/9/2015 13:58

I very much doubt this will fall to £12 as some shorters will have you believe.

[shaggies_view] 08/9/2015 12:20

Bamboo - I have similar target in the short term but a medium term target of 1900p (3-6 months). I don't see a move above 2000p for a long time (years)....

Shaggy

[bamboo2] 08/9/2015 11:27

This potential unconfirmed pennant offers a target of approx 1722

[la forge] 08/9/2015 06:42

Time to panic? not yet - CNBC Comment

by Wilfred Frost - 8 September 2015 1:36am

Wilfred Frost is anchor of CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange.

The bull market has further to run, says Wilfred Frost. But there may be better value outside equities

HINDSIGHT is a wonderful thing, but the recent correction in stock markets was hardly surprising. Even its extent and volatility were not totally absurd when you take account of a few crucial factors.

The most relevant factor is that this all occurred in the summer when volumes are thinnest. Moves were therefore larger and more prolonged than perhaps they otherwise would have been in normal trading. While European traders started filtering back last week, the US summer only officially ended yesterday, so we still don’t really know what the majority of traders feel about current levels until we are some way through September.

UNINSPIRING FUNDAMENTALS
The main reason for the correction is down to how strong markets have been in the short and long term, despite uninspiring fundamentals. European and Japanese equities had been unashamedly strong this year, supported by central bank bond-buying programmes, and US equities, while mixed, had not been particularly negative. That’s the short term. In the long term, markets have been fantastically strong since March 2009, all of which has been stimulus-led, and that stimulus is getting closer to being removed than added to in the all-important US market as the Federal Reserve gets ready to hike its interest rates.

China clearly has had a big impact over the last few months, though I consider that to be the spark for the correction, not its cause. I am bearish on China, but not because of the Shanghai market correction. China’s equities were not correlated with fundamentals on the way up and so, on the way down, they do not necessarily imply that the fundamentals are weakening. However, the Chinese economy is slowing and, as I have warned before, I am sceptical as to where it can settle and expect a much larger and sharper correction than most factor in.

RELATIVE ATTRACTION
I have been told more times than I care to count on Worldwide Exchange that equities are attractive relative to other assets. Relative attractiveness is all well and good when there is confidence in the market. But as soon as you have a risk-off moment, investors are quickly reminded that equities (and emerging market currencies and commodities) are risk assets, and will not escape negativity whether yields are higher than bonds or not.

Given the run over the last six years and that developed world growth is only around 1-2 per cent (a level that hardly justifies the global quantitative easing programmes), most risk assets are not attractive in absolute terms. This summer, China sparked a re-evaluation by investors of the long-term fundamental attractiveness of the assets they were holding, and we duly saw a volatile correction.

MORE VOLATILITY AHEAD
I imagine this is not quite the full end to the post-global financial crisis bull market. There will probably be another (volatile) leg to the uptrend, no doubt caused by further dovish sentiment from central bankers – the statement from the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi last week is a good example.

But ultimately, on any long-term perspective, do we really think that economic growth rates of about 2 per cent are enough to judge QE a success? Not for me. The fundamentals do not justify the action of the last six years. Thus the market rally we have seen is resting on either a sharp improvement in global fundamentals or more dovish action (not just rhetoric) – which would be increasingly ineffective, as China has clearly highlighted.

With that in mind, the yield of over 2 per cent on offer from the US 10-year bond seems quite attractive. There may well be equities available with a higher yield, and we may well be entering a rate-rising period in the US. But with growth still uninspiring, and yields on European and Japanese debt even lower, the US bond market offers some relative and absolute value.

Wilfred Frost is anchor of CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange. Follow him on Twitter: @WilfredFrost

City A.M.'s Opinion pages are a place for thought-provoking opinions and views. These are not necessarily shared by City A.M.

[ball deap] 07/9/2015 23:13

Chairman , you would like to think the U.S. has a intelligent strategy but they don't, Russia is smarter and tricks the U.S. every time. People seem to forget that the EU stole billions of Russian money out of Cyprus, most people forgotten , Russia didn't. Russia and/or Isis are behind the migrants heading to Europe from Syria , send a load of uneducated rejects to the EU to mess things up, it's a old tactic of war but Germany got tricked big time. Watch the dax fall apart in 6 months. Lesson learnt? Don't mess with Russia ! What do we get? Our stocks killed !!

[muffinhead] 07/9/2015 20:31

The market is always right

Reduce the dividend bill 50% and write down value of assets.. "mark to market"

Oil prices are staying down and BG acquisition makes Shell a different company

[svenice7] 07/9/2015 17:41

Short now. My orders at £12

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2015 09:57

If you wish to make a comparison between mining stocks and Shell
then RIO would strike me as the stock to compare with, GLEN appears very different.

No dividend is guaranteed, however it would be in 12 months time (if the OP
was at current or lower levels) that discussion about dividend sustainability
may be more relevant, all IMV only.

[smith99] 07/9/2015 09:55

the trouble shell have, which is very much to our advantage is no one wants to be in charge to announce a cut in dividend. they would much rather sell off some assets than be the person who broke the 70+ year habit of increasing year on year. For that very reason I am more than happy to average down every 6 months

[losos] 07/9/2015 09:45

Various press articles over the weekend about Russia and Saudi getting together (Behind closed doors and well away from the prying media of course) to agree a controlled and gradual reduction in output.

I firmly believe the Saudis were worried about the huge increase in shale production in America and thought they could put many of them out of business with a low oil price. But it's hurting them now, and Russia would probably benefit by cutting production also.

It won't happen tomorrow but over time (i.e. two to three years) expect to see a steady rise in price coupled with a gradual reduction in output.

Russia and Saudi are in a nice place 'cos any cuts they make now just leaves them with oil in the ground which ain't going away, in ten years time it will still be there. Who can know what the price might be then.

[moneysage] 07/9/2015 09:00

Also the poo in the past has been much lower in worse market conditions and despite this Shell has still maintained INCREASING dividends since 1945!!

[11_percent] 07/9/2015 08:51

Agreed, there is more chance of BP cutting.

[fangorn2] 07/9/2015 08:40

Slim because they've said they are holding it for next couple of years.

If Poo falls further and stays lower for longer then who knows. But gearing is sub 20% so plenty of room to borrow if needs be to maintain it.

Expect BP to cut first.