|No vote on heathcare tonight = no hope of it passing. Implication is that a Republican President can't do a deal with the economic right wingers. Does not bode well for infrastructure spending or fiscal intervention IMO, and the market may come to that conclusion too.|
|Traded out of KGF again, BRSN, quick in/out. Sold WG and a few HSTN,
bought some HLCL, added some more DLG this AM, nearly all DLG bought back now.
Added a few ASCI. Sold half of NXT.
ADAP put me off XAR, was tempted, but will give it a miss.|
|hpcg, did the President join the conf call? Still reading up on it.. to be honest I don't pay much attention to it all..|
|henry he was hoping Hillary would get in from what I read....
|RBW Picking up despite general market.|
|It was reported that Soros lost $1bn betting against the markets after Trump was elected. So whats another $100m :-)|
|hosede my post from before gives same sort of message
8 Mar '17 - 09:45 - 66581 of 67165 0 0 Edit
'Icahn Enterprises (IEP), which Icahn controls and serves as chairman of, quietly disclosed last week that it had a net short position in its investment portfolio of 128% as of the end of last year. That's a fivefold increase from the end of 2015.
The net short position means Icahn's firm is betting against 1.3 shares for every one share it's betting on. In other words, Icahn's investment portfolio will generally gain value when prices decline, and vice versa.|
|ah..seems it was "incidental" wiretapping
|very interesting indeed..Was Trump really wiretapped? Seems a whistleblower thinks so....
|Soros apparently betting $100m against Deutsches bank|
|Secure Trust Bank - at the same time they're entering the mortgage business.
Could it be a recession is good for a lender?|
|henry - thanks for that nugget from STB. Certainly worthy of note, and action.|
|Sold 50% of my NXT, in profit, did not expect that share price reaction this AM.|
Very interesting post on STB - thanks.|
|The brexit timetable in detail. Olly Robbins doesn't get started negotiating on our behalf until this autumn, he then has just one year to conclude negotiations. They have to be completed by Oct 2018 in order to be ratified by March 2019:
|This is an extract from Alemans post this morning on the NFDS thread post 42785.
From Secure Trust Bank:
Unsecured personal lending ('UPL') balances, net of provisions, continued to contract and were reduced by 12% to £65.5 million at 31 December 2016 (2015: £74.3 million). During 2015 and 2016 we consistently highlighted our unease at the competitive dynamics in this market. This is by far the easiest lending market to enter as all that is required is money to on lend and a way to originate loans. As the economy has continued to grow we have seen an increase in the activity of bank and non-bank lenders in this space with inevitable consequences for credit underwriting standards and pricing. The situation that now exists is that despite what many see as a peak in job creation, which could foreshadow an increase in unemployment and a steady increase in inflation which will reduce household disposable income, some lenders are offering fixed rate UPLs at the lowest ever rates. We share the regulators' concerns about the trends in the UPL market which we regard as unsustainable, hence our decision to cease originating new UPL business for the time being. STB has a large amount of experience in the UPL market, having been active since STB's formation in 1952, but at times has elected to reduce our exposure, for instance substantially reducing our UPL activity in 2006-08, in response to an unattractive competitor pricing environment at the time. We intend to re-enter the UPL market once the risk adjusted yields available become more attractive.
Secure Trust Bank pulled out of unsecured lending just ahead of the last recession.|
|Back in to KGF again 3.21, only a small amount.
bamboo mentioned around 3.15/6 from memory, that may be a decent entry.|
|Bridgewater Associates / Ray Dalio - 22/3/17:
Populism: The Phenomenon
This report is an examination of populism, the phenomenon—how it typically germinates, grows, and runs its course.
Populism is not well understood because, over the past several decades, it has been infrequent in emerging countries (e.g., Chávez’s Venezuela, Duterte’s Philippines, etc.) and virtually nonexistent in developed countries. It is one of those phenomena that comes along in a big way about once a lifetime—like pandemics, depressions, or wars. The last time that it existed as a major force in the world was in the 1930s, when most countries became populist. Over the last year, it has again emerged as a major force.
To help get a sense of how the level of populist support today compares to populism in the past, we created an index of the share of votes received by populist/anti-establishment parties or candidates in national elections, for all the major developed countries (covering the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) all the way back to 1900, weighting the countries by their population shares. We sought to identify parties/candidates who made attacking the political/corporate establishment their key political cause. Obviously, the exercise is inherently rough, so don’t squint too much at particular wiggles. But the broad trends are clear. Populism has surged in recent years and is currently at its highest level since the late 1930s (though the ideology of the populists today is much less extreme compared to the 1930s).
|ukpollingreport is the site I use for updates.
ICM/Guardian 20 March top line figures- CON 45, LAB 26, LIBD 9
ICM also asked about best team on the economy, May/Hammond recording a 33 point lead
Unbelievable, Erdogan the dictator in waiting wants to rebuild his Ottoman Empire by the look of it|
|Labour have lost the next two GE's, the only hope for the centre or centre/left
would be the formation of a new party, otherwise it's late 2020's.
Look at some of the latest polling stats, even in the 18-24 demographic the TP
now holds a lead. This is the Remain favouring age grouping.
A recession will make a difference at the margins only, it would need to
be something savage to unseat the Conservatives. The Tory dominance of the
1980's shows this. Thatcher was not universaly loved, but Labour was not trusted.
People can vote for the former but are repelled by the later.
Scotland is lost to Labour which just compounds their woes.
Shocking events today.
Sold my KGF at 3.30 for a quick small turn.|
|Starting to think a general election will be called in the next 12-15mths|
|simon...the government have 14 seats with a majority of less than 1000 votes. A very small swing could upset the apple cart if the swing is against them.
|Couple of big Ifs there Simon. We're in desperate need Of a credible opposition but Corbyn and Farron are not it|