|bamboo - GBPUSD is definitely a strong candidate for your analysis I would contend. The uptrend is intact until it isn't.|
|hi hpcg, FX:gbpusd, at the weekend I said we had two potential turns this week, on the 7 and 8 Dec and that I would zoom in. So today we turn down, and later tomorrow we turn back up. I think the target is still intact, unless we see a greater than 50% retrace of the most recent move up.
e, arrows corrected|
|Presumably Sterling is down because barriers to A50 being submitted are coming down? Worth watching if the absence of coherent plan becomes apparent, but presumably this won't be known until well into the new year? There is a rising trend line, aligned with the 20ma, so nothing out of the ordinary yet, but important for those who follow uk listed global stocks and ftse 100.|
|Hpcg, like all of your posts very well considered and much to agree with. I imagine a lot of people around Europe are looking at the UK and US and seeing recent votes as illustrating that the Anglo Saxon version of capitalism is doomed to failure and the EU is better off with us outside the tent.Obviously many would disagree with that interpretation but there seems to be a collective inability on the part of many to progress from the childish level of arguing about who is right onto the adult dialogue about what parties want and how that can be achieved.I once took part in a fascinating arbitration when the QC listened to the opening statements and said "well, that's all interesting but we will only succeed today if one of you agrees to pay a sum of money to the other so let's just talk in figures from now on". Settlement was duly achieved.|
|It would be useful to have an acknowledgement that A50 is reversible within the time limit. The best settlement for Europe and the UK is a mutually comfortable divorce. The screeching about the EU falling apart does the reverse of this, and the language should also be reversed. Re-frame as the UK leaving makes to EU more likely to stay together, that there are advantages to the EU for the UK to leave, and to leave on good terms, and we can get somewhere. The confrontation of the EU must die Valkyries makes this less likely.
The Daily Mail, Express, Sun, Farage and Murdoch might think they can direct the blame for (hypothetical at this time) consequential economic hardship on Europe and foreigners, but they would be in for a shock. Their propaganda tools can be used against them, they just haven't been yet. Lots of faults in the UK population when it comes to blaming others, but the EU whipping boy will cease to exist once we leave. We can the concentrate on the real failures, collectively low productivity, the educational failure and anti-intellectualism of certain working class constuencies (white indigenous, paskistani and carribean primarily), and the cost of housing.
The EU itself needs to lose the distraction of the UK and deal with the concrete imbalances in the Euro. In addition the periphery needs some introspection to deal with its inherent corruption which keeps them poor.|
|I thought the programme by John Pilger appeared a bit chilling last night.
Possible War ...US China.....anybody see it?
I will likely see it on catch up.|
|Henry W7L's core business is own brand but with the excess parts to it running alongside.
I suppose it reflects the changes we are seeing in society in a way with people being adaptable
I guess its easy enough if you are depositing your products in Asda or wherever to bring a variety of products to the table.
It shows what a mark-up these big firms have though, that they are able to pass on these products so much more cheaply and W7L still make a profit out of them.
Their own brand ,though, is the main thing and it clearly has gained a presence looking at the sales figures.
I mean Schroders are quite canny.
|The BKG share price once again demonstrating Tony Pidgely's genius in timing,
buying right near the Summer lows.
You don't get to be a multi millionaire by 21, starting from nothing,
without being sharper than sharp.
As mentioned at the time, who do you want to take your cues from Blanchflower
or Tony. Tony every time.|
|Interesting volte face from Niall Ferguson as he admits he was wrong opposing Brexit.|
|Green Party allegedly accepted a 250k bung from a wealthy benefactor to stand down their candidate from the Richmond By-election.|
|Simon...I used Sage when in business and I see they now also do a package for sole traders & small start ups. There is competition out there for Freeagent but somehow, if I were a young start up, Freeagent would look more attractive/sassy to me. Sage sole trader/freelance starts @£6 per month which seems very attractive to say someone like a hairdresser. The cheapest Freeagent package is £19 per month after the initial six month £9 pm trial period. Like for like small business packages look similar in price but of course Sage has first mover advantage & market size. Prior to this post, if anyone had asked my opinion on start up accounts/bookeeping I would have said use Sage.
|New float FREE is a little software outfit for small business/sole traders, floated last month, does anyone have experience of their type of offering and how critical it is:
"FreeAgent Holdings plc, a provider of cloud-based Software-as-a-Service ("SaaS") accounting software solutions and mobile applications designed specifically for UK micro-businesses."|
|That's bit worrying
|Pity our politicians never had the guts to so much speak of such policies let alone implement them like several already have.I guess that's one of the many reasons though they will be glad to be leaving the EU. Much easier to avoid EU politics and policy for them.Much easier to blame all your failings on others.|
my retirement fund
|Facebook looks decidedly unhealthy. More so than possibly ever since floatation. Very tempting short. Disney on the other hand looking very perky.
Bamboo, many thanks for the DB analysis.|
|Folk will do anything to stay elected, ei. Merkel is no different to any other politician|
|Merkel mooting banning the burka in public, coupled with speeding up
Mood music changing.|
|Is Joris related to David Milliband? That reference halfway through seems quite strange|
|Prospect Magazine - November Issue 2016:
Britain: narcissist nation
The country's inflated sense of self-worth is beginning to look clinical
by Joris Luyendijk
Rarely have Europeans, including this London-based Dutchman, been granted such deep insight into the darkest corners of the English psyche (I am going to leave out the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish). The charitable view is that many English people have a superiority complex that prevents them from being realistic about their country’s place in the world. As the Brexit saga drags on, one wonders if parts of the UK’s political and media establishment, if not the whole country, are not in fact in the grips of collective clinical narcissism.
Diverging slightly from its usage in popular culture, psychotherapists employ the concept of narcissism to describe people with an unstable sense of identity. Feelings of vulnerability, dependency and helplessness can overwhelm them and for this reason narcissists cling to notions of grandiosity. They cannot consider others except as instruments to be manipulated or enemies to be fought. Marked by a mixture of bravado and contempt for those perceived as weaker, narcissists cannot accept criticism and feel no interest in others—let alone empathy.
So let us map this on to the Brexit debate. Grandiosity came in two forms. For “Leave,” Britain is a great country and if things don’t feel that way it must be because of the European Union. Being special, other nations will rush to strike deals with the UK post-Brexit. The UK, being a very special country, needs the EU far less than vice versa so Europeans will give Britain a great deal, too.
“Remain” grandiosity was more implicit, but still there. The most revealing example was probably David Cameron’s threat in Brussels to back “Leave” in the referendum unless he got “a better deal for Britain.” This was reported not as blackmail but as a demand for “concessions.” The implication: its very membership is a favour granted by the UK to the EU.
This inflated sense of self was built on by the “Remain” camp when it began to argue that the UK should stay so it can run the EU. Gordon Brown wrote a book called Britain: Leading Not Leaving while Edward Lucas of the Economist let it be known that “Britain’;s size, experience and friends make us the continent’s natural leader.” In this atmosphere it became very hard for Remainers to put forward the most powerful argument for the European pooling of sovereignty. That argument is so simple that Jean-Claude Juncker needed just two sentences for it in this year’s State of the Union: “Today Europeans make up 8 per cent of the world population—we will only represent 5 per cent in 2050. By then you will not see a single EU country among the top world economies.”
Compare that to the Spectator’s Toby Young gushing about the UK becoming the world’s third economy, Andrea Leadsom promising to make the UK the “greatest country on earth” and Boris Johnson’s Union Jack draped bluster. The case for European integration rests on the recognition of one’s own country’s growing irrelevance. But this simple insight remains a national taboo in Britain. A few important exceptions such as David Miliband aside, it seemed nearly impossible for most English politicians or pundits to say: look, seen from China or Brazil the difference between our country and Belgium is a rounding error; 0.87 per cent of world population versus 0.15 per cent.
Instead the public was fed one appeal to grandiosity after another, helped in no small part by wilful blindness in the media. Had English journalists fanned out across the continent in the months before Brexit they would have found out what the UK is only now slowly discovering: the EU is not an amorphous “block,” but a community of nations, each fighting its own corner. Do 450m EU citizens really want to be “led” by the UK—especially after the Iraq and Libya debacles? Why on earth would EU nations encourage their own Europhobes by giving the UK a sweet deal?
A week of interviews in each European capital was enough to see that the UK would be on its own post-Brexit. But investigations of that kind require a genuine interest in others, and empathy. To be fair, there were excellent reports in among others the Economist and the Financial Times. But the billionaire-owned tabloids and broadsheets were only too happy to continue indulging their readers with the sort of distortions that make the EU look terrible and, by implication, Britain superior: at least we are not “Yurup.” Indeed, the run-up to the referendum felt almost like a public school parlour game “who can think up the most outrageous analogy?” Boris Johnson and his minions went for the Second World War, of course, while the economics commentator of the nominally pro-European Guardian settled for “Soviet Union without a Gulag.”
And so now the English are on their way out of the EU. Everybody in London I speak to, be they “Remain” or “Leave,” assumes I must be sorry to see the UK leave. The truth is, I am with two thirds of Germans and three quarters of French who according to a poll taken in July do not, on balance, consider Brexit a loss. “Leave” and “Remain” supporters also keep asking me almost eagerly when my native Netherlands is next, even though the only Dutch political party to want Nexit polls at less than 20 per cent.
Rather than accepting itself as a country dependent on its neighbours like the rest of us, the English got lost in themselves, and then chose isolation. It will not be splendid.|
|Trouble with banks is that it's difficult to know for certain if they're insolvent, because whether loans are 100% bad or not is to some extent a matter of opinion: so rotten banks can carry on trading long after they should have been shuttered.
However it's reckoned that Italian bank loans are 20% bad compared to 1.4% in the UK and 4.9% or so worldwide.|
|hpcg, DB chart shows a confirmed INVH&S bottom/reversal. Target min 20, price is in a Broadening Rising Wedge. The neckline and BRW lower trendline form a triangle with an apex around Jan 31st 2017, and this could become a turning point for the price. High volume coincides with the low.|
|Three stand out non-commodity opportunities right now IMO:
1. Long Deutsche Bank. They aren't that exposed to Italy. There might be action on the failed Italian banks. Probably some sort of bail out with a small bit of bail in with Italy ignoring the EU. Commodity rebound has helped. This was not the bottom, there will have been 50% winners already, but a fair way to go I think.
2. Short term BKG - buy before the buybacks, sell in to those.
3. Sell / short high multiple US fast casual restaurants. They are going to be squeezed between increasing minimum wages and a consumer who will down trade. Chipotle is the obvious one, and has the benefit of being on the opposite side to Bill Ackman. With CMG now dropping and Valeant dripping down to zero he will be a forced seller and likely an ex hedge fund manager.
Buffalo Wild Wings, BWLD, is my second pick. Volatile and at the top of its range. Less expensive than CMG, but a good chance of 10-15% downside IMO.|
|I must say, I'm not finding this santa rally very exhilarating.|
|EI...the way the EU is shaping up it won't be of much use in two years time :-)|