Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 14/3/2018 11:46

No it's not - it's two people using their brains, logic and reasoning to debate the value of an equity. You should try it sometime - it's enlightening.

[fardels bear] 14/3/2018 11:37

That's two looking for an entry point, then.

[nigelpm] 14/3/2018 11:36

Interesting points FH - I'm sure there's a few reasons why the share price is still languishing around these levels and you raise some good ones.

Your knowledge of the sector is much needed on this board where there is certainly a bit too much "SQZ is going to the moon because I say so".

[flyinghorse1] 14/3/2018 11:23

Looking at the BKR assets Rhum is the main jewel, with Bruce/Keith on last legs.
Bruce has about an average of 3.4mmscfd/well (circa 73mmscfd/21gross). The Bruce wells are very deep and the reservoir complex. Velocity strings/deliquifiaction will be required to keep things going. Its really acting as a late life hub for Rhum.
Keith averages 8mmscfd gross and they say it will cease in 2019 (subsea tieback).

Rhum does look very good, but does have CO2 /H2s issues and a complicated pipleline/HIPPS system for Hydrate prevention. From what I can find Hydrates/completion issues is a problem on R3. They have 15K trees being HPHT and needed the Deepwater Bergen rig last time to lift the trees. There are more 15K capable rigs these days but see Stat oil exercised its option on the Bergen Deepwater.

hxxps://www.odfjelldrilling.com/News/item1/odl--statoil-exercises-second-option-in-deepsea-bergens-drilling-contract/

I do wonder if developing the safety case for HPHT is an issue for Serica and their pockets should any well issues emerge. I suspect that bp will have to do the R3 W/O given the complexity/liability (though Serica did operate the Columbus appraisal)

So progress with R3 is key imho.
Good article on the RHUM development:
hxxps://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-65/issue-8/offshore-europe/long-distance-rhum-tieback-raises-benchmark-for-pressure-protection.html

FH

[fardels bear] 14/3/2018 11:15

I've expanded too but mine seems to be swelling due to having contracted campilobacter along with most of my fellow holidaymakers in Agadir. Grrr.

[chestnuts] 13/3/2018 23:42

I will expand tomorrow just want to do more checking, but i am not selling its just an inconvenience

[fardels bear] 13/3/2018 22:36

Q3 starts in June. It's not far away. Winter may even have finished by then, though I am not holding my breath.

[lord gnome] 13/3/2018 22:34

Well, as you are still here chestnuts, can I assume that any delay is not serious?

[captainfatcat] 13/3/2018 22:24

Chestnuts can you please expand on your reply what have you heard?

[chestnuts] 13/3/2018 21:37

Captain

It's nothing to do with Rhum 3 the delay in completion, and this comes from the horses mouth.

[captainfatcat] 13/3/2018 21:31

More like they want to avoid handing over operatorship during the Rhum well intervention which makes a lot of sense.

The BKR deal is structured to allow for both success or frailer cases so results of the well intervention as I read it look to have no bearing on the actual completion of the deal itself other than the determining of future percentage/performance bonuses payable on pre arranged targets being met if the outcome is positive.

[fardels bear] 13/3/2018 21:14

Always a newbie with concerns about something or other wanting a lower entry price..

[farmscan] 13/3/2018 20:50

Does that then imply that they want to see the result before completing the deal?

[captainfatcat] 13/3/2018 20:38

Bit of chatter on the LSE bb about the Rhum three well intervention taking place in May and expected to take around two months. This I think could possibly explain why the BKR completion date has been push back to Q3 as it allows for BP to remain operator until the Rhum 3 well intervention is all wrapped up.

[dunderheed] 13/3/2018 19:55

6053 ffs, the partner pre emptions range from anything of 1 week to 30 days maximum normally.
This risk is completely gone now imho of course Lol!
Pre-emptions are normally pretty cut and dry and, due to the complexity of this deal, I would have 'thought' they would have 'sounded out' partners prior to public dissemination.
There is an interesting pre-emption case in international arbitration (I believe) of FAR (tiny indie) in Senegal challenging COP (largest indie in the world?) selling to WPL (2nd largest indie in the world?).
What are your concerns regarding 'balance sheet' with regard to collared forward gas sales?!
Imho these shares will not be hanging around this price fir very long and likely much higher in about a months time when more detailed operational results will be released?

[flyinghorse1] 13/3/2018 19:25

If the pre-emption risk is clear I would part agree, just depends on what the forward selling agreement does to the balance sheet.

[nigelpm] 13/3/2018 19:22

does anyone know when they are clear of that threat and if they are preempted what the share price would fall back to?

Pretty sure they are out of this now - think it was 30 days post announcing to the market

Also, amazed you think it's too late - I think we could easily see 50% upside here.

[flyinghorse1] 13/3/2018 18:52

I have been looking at the Serica deal deciding whether to dip in, though I feel its to late.
It mainly looks good, however knowing they wont get pre-empted by existing partners is a concern (Recent example is Verus re Wytch Farm/Premier stake) -does anyone know when they are clear of that threat and if they are preempted what the share price would fall back to?
I also see they have forward sold/bank rolled 60% of 2018/19 gas production (And forward but % dropping) to bp's trading arm for a lowly 35ppt. I suppose this is how bp dispose and retain at the same time (By bank rolling via production), so that will take a while to unwind.
FH

[steelwatch] 13/3/2018 17:10

It seems the article requires free registration to read in full, if anyone is interested. I backed out when they asked for a phone number.

[lord gnome] 13/3/2018 10:15

Crikey Orient. How many are you trying to buy? Easy enough to get an online quote for 50,000 shares. That's enough for most people. You clearly have deep pockets. Glad you are buying rather than selling. :-)

[nigelpm] 13/3/2018 09:43

Thanks chestnuts - makes perfect sense - as FB noted they really should have included that in their RNS - no reference to it clearly caused that initial tank to 66p and there was no need for it.

[chestnuts] 13/3/2018 09:27

Orient

THe normal spread is a 1p to 2p i usually think that they widen the spread when an order is being filled going up or down

[0rient] 13/3/2018 09:20

Very difficult to purchase in decent size..i picked a few up yesterday but struggled. Now that they are growing they need to address this issue and also remove the large spread to attract bigger investors & institutions..similar to what HUR are doing at the moment 👍🏻

[chestnuts] 13/3/2018 08:25

Just been doing a bit of research and the reason why production was down to 16000boepd from 20000boepd , well there was 2 stoppages one was announced by the pipeline operators when a valve got stuck and the other was because of the Beast from the East the very high winds caused alot of the platforms t shut down for well over a week, so it looks like BKR are still producing around 20000 boepd