Serco Share Discussion Threads

[alphahunter] 29/9/2016 12:17

We are on the same wavelength DS2, what gets beyond me is the price went-up from 120p to 130p on not much, yet the ratios/valuation you allude to were hardly any lower/cheaper.

"I need to learn how to trade momentum and not think too much, I need to learn how to trade momentum and not think too much, I need to learn how to trade momentum and not think too much...."

Alpha

[dangersimpson2] 29/9/2016 12:02

Seems a brave move - Capita struggling, Mitie profit warned recently. And Serco is on a forward P/E of 29 and even with them reporting a small profit they say will be cash flow negative over the next couple of years and net debt is expected to rise. With the EV of £1.6bn (more if you include the future debt increase) you are paying a lot today on the hope that they return to positive operating cashflow in 2019.

[fruitninja84] 29/9/2016 11:43

Took a few. Splash damage from Capita warning this am hurting imo. I may be wrong here but a breakout looks imminent and i think medium term this could reach 150p. All imo i have a tight stop. Gla.

[netcurtains] 09/9/2016 09:01

OUTSOURCING

[ayl30] 09/9/2016 08:59

Why? What has Micro got to do with SRP ??

[netcurtains] 09/9/2016 08:54

SRP some post Micro Focus boost on cards..

[freddie ferret] 05/8/2016 17:40

Bowl becoming more defined IMHO.

[chrisgail] 04/8/2016 09:15

Good trading update, management seem to be back in some form of control. Steady rise in share price over the coming months, one to hold.

[hybrasil] 04/8/2016 08:48

This is what I bought in for. Up 25%!!!

[learningtrader] 04/8/2016 08:14

Board so quiet even after today's surge. Perhaps the much awaited turn around has begun.

[davethehorse] 05/7/2016 10:07

80p here we come...maybe...

[hybrasil] 02/7/2016 08:20

£2 here we come

[freddie ferret] 28/6/2016 16:10

Bowl with bumps?

[davethehorse] 27/6/2016 23:30

Doesnt look good now - can see SRP being very weak again from here until the future is clearer

[bugle4] 20/6/2016 17:52

It does look like a bowl formation.

[alphahunter] 20/6/2016 16:29

Looks like the supply of less demanding labour force is not going to dry up.
Stock up 7.5%.

Lots of jam tomorrow on the unstable shelf.


We just have to wait for the "bowl" watchers now

[dangersimpson2] 16/6/2016 18:04

I always thought the rise from the low 90's into the 110's in response to the positive trading statement was a bit strange. They announced an extra £15m profit for 2016 but since it was non-recurring 2017 and beyond forecast was unchanged. Yet the market bid up the market cap by c£200m. It's like me finding £15m down the back of my sofa and mr market offering to buy it off me for £200m. If I had found a goose down the back of my sofa that laid golden eggs each year worth £15m then £200m might be a good price but not since it was a one-off. Maybe mr market is now realising they paid £185m and all they got was a sofa!

[davethehorse] 16/6/2016 17:15

Mmmm...going sub 100p again or holding..???

[freddie ferret] 25/5/2016 16:22

Very good RNS today, profits upgrade from expected 50m to 65m for this year.

TIDMSRP

RNS Number : 2314Z

Serco Group PLC

25 May 2016

Update on 2016 financial performance

25 May 2016

Serco Group plc (Serco), the international service company, today provides an update on financial performance which has been stronger than we anticipated in the first four months of the year. This is in large part due to the successful outcome of a number of commercial negotiations. The nature of most of the items driving the stronger performance is that they will sharply increase profits in the first half, but will not repeat in subsequent periods.

As a result of this we now expect Underlying Trading Profit for 2016 to be ahead of current market expectations. We had previously anticipated Revenue of approximately GBP2.8bn and Underlying Trading Profit of approximately GBP50m. Our latest reforecast indicates Revenue of approximately GBP2.9bn and Underlying Trading Profit of not less than GBP65m, though the outcome remains dependent on many factors over the balance of the year. The increase in guidance for 2016 does not change our view of the likely outcome for 2017.

The stronger outlook for 2016 is driven by:

-- Several contracts that were anticipated to end early in the year have run-on longer; these include the Virginia transport (VDOT) and US Army transition assistance (SFLTAP) contracts.

-- On contracts which we have already exited in the year-to-date, most notably Northern Rail, the final settlement arrangements are likely to be more favourable than we had originally budgeted.

-- Within continuing operations, there are several contracts where either current trading is better than we expected, or the conclusion of certain negotiations has enabled us to update our assumptions. These include AWE, where we have reflected the outcome of its contract year to 31 March 2016 and updated forecasts for the expected timing of the change in Joint Venture shareholding arrangements. Amongst other contracts, a programme supporting defence logistics in the Middle East has seen significant upside from higher-than-expected volumes.

-- Within our internal shared service operations, some items of expenditure budgeted for the first half have been deferred. We are also running ahead of our plans to mitigate losses and stranded costs related to the residual UK onshore private sector BPO operations.

-- Assuming current rates persist for the rest of the year, foreign exchange also benefits our most recent estimates of the likely outturn in 2016.

Serco expects to provide a pre-close statement on 30 June, ahead of announcing the results for the first half of the 2016 financial year on 4 August.

Rupert Soames, Serco Group Chief Executive, said: "It is encouraging that we are able to announce an upgrade to our guidance for the year, albeit that much of this improvement comes from items that will not recur. We must remain cognisant that, with underlying margins currently around 2%, our profits are a sliver of reward between two very large numbers - revenue and costs - tiny percentage movements in which can lead to large percentage movements in profits. There remains much to do in order to complete our transformation this year and next, but we are continuing to make good progress on the roadmap we have set out through to 2020."

Ends

[essential] 04/3/2016 18:33

Sorry correction to my last post - RSI is already well above RSI 50. Just needs to break 200mda

[essential] 04/3/2016 18:31

It needs to break the 200dma and then it could be interesting as also about to break 50 RSI. Watching and waiting.....

[palwing13] 03/3/2016 12:24

It this a CR bowl forming?

[hybrasil] 01/3/2016 13:31

still not in profit but the picture is getting rosier