|Buy backs are the best option: it confirms that management thinks the shares are cheap (what better use of excess cash than buying their own business at semi-distressed valuation) and it provides an exit for Sun Capital, though they may prefer a higher price, and help reduce the fears around the over hang. As pointed out above, the current dividend is already special.|
|Who's the hot chicken in the adverts,
Would love to bang her on one of the scs sofas!|
|Good points Salpara. They should have £28-£30m on the balance sheet by year end, and that date is a low point in the monthly cash flow cycle, following the 53rd week last year. They may feel that an amount of (say) £10m should be ring fenced as its customer deposits for furniture not yet received. They do not legally have to ring fence it though. I think they also like to show a good cash balance to the credit insurers, after the 2008 problems.
What to do with the excess cash? I like your idea of buy backs, with a P/e of 7 and a prospective EV/Ebitda of 2 it makes sense financially. However, given the illiquidity - exacerbated by Sun holding such a big stake - would it make liquidity even worse, once the trasaction were complete. I think on balance your right though, buy back makes good financial sense. It is unusual to talk about A special div when the normal yield is aleady 9%!|
|Given the cash requirements of the business and the balance sheet position I would support a share buyback.
The stock is pretty illiquid so I would imagine that even buying back £1M would have a dramatic effect on the share price
The only reason I continue to hold is as mentioned above, the share price is priced for a dramatic reduction in profits and while it is clear that conditions will be more difficult for the next year or two, I don't see anything that would suggest a major economic crash is on its way.|
|My number came from the cashflow statement. By the way, I've started buying and this looks like a stunning investment opportunity. I know that DFS is bigger but by positioning themselves nearer DFS they piggy back DFS's ad spend. The current margin does look low but I'd see this as an opportunity. It looks its priced to go bust and I don't that will happen.|
|I think if you're comparing Scs to dfs you really have to account for the much lower margin and profitability at Scs, and the much lower market share. Scs might be net cash but it's overall a riskier business compared to dfs|
|Hi Woozie, interesting questions about ScS, and I always appreciate being made to think about my Investment.
In response to your point about whether net cash is really net cash, I checked the Prelims Statement and it headlines with:
"Strong balance sheet with cash of £22.4m (2015: £21.1m) and no debt". Also, an unusual thing happened to them regarding the 53rd week, and in that final week 53 they paid the monthly payroll and suppliers runs. Had it been a normal 52 week year (as most are!), the cash would have been £9m higher. Look at another way, it does mean that the £22.4m cash was at a low point in the monthly cycle.
Further down the P&L is says Finance Costs were £217k and £86k of Finance Income. I cant see where your £0.7m comes from? I suspect that they will earn Jack S on the cash balances, but paying non utilisation fees etc on the Facility.|
|Are you sure that net cash is really net? I see they have 0.7m interest charge, which would imply that they have borrowings between £10-15m (i.e interest rate of 5%). And they also mentioned that the £12m RFC was renegotiated last year. Woolworth's used to report net cash at the reporting period but the interest charge told you there was a big working capital facility, which is what eventually sunk. That and the high cost leases.
At y/e, I netted off the current liabilities from the current assets and came to a figure nearer £5m. That's better than DFS which has debt on 1x EBITDA and proposing to pay a special dividend, which I think is a mistake.
I'm thinking that the answer maybe more prosaic: nearly listed sofas have gone bust!!
All that said, it makes no sense for the listed carpet businesses like Headlam, Carpetright and Victoria Carpets to be doing so well and the sofa companies not. Don't people generally buy sofas and carpets at the same time. I know that I have!
|I think to be fair it was only a tiny percentage of the Director's holdings, so I largely ignored it. Scs have only just updated us on trading, so it's nothing sinister about him knowing more about trade than we do.
The low P/e is only part of the valuation story. Usually such low P/E ratios are associated with weak Balance Sheets, or massive Pension Deficits like Trinity Mirror and Norcross. However, I would expect ScS to finish this year with c£28m net cash...around 40% of the entire market cap! The EV/ebitda ratio is close to 2!!|
|Anyone any idea why insiders are selling shares with a DY of 9% and a 7 p/e. I'd love to be buying more of these but this is a warning flag for me.
|The Sales for ScS will appear at an average of 8 weeks after the order was taken. thats an average, and the range is up to 11 weeks for Far East manufactured. We have been given LFL's for orders. Crudely, the first half sales should comprise the final 8 weeks off last year (+15% according to a helpful table someone put together on Stocko) and the first 16 of this year of +4%. On that basis the LFL Sales reported for H1 would be around +7%. The last 8 weeks do have a bigger weighting as aim11 points out…and these orders will make the sales for the first 2 months of the second half. I am assuming flat v LY, and indeed thats where i am modelling the whole second half. Given the unwinding of last year's Bonus (relating to a double digit LFL), and strong performance from New Space, I am still expecting significant profit growth this year…far ahead of the measly +£0.5m which the Brokers expect. At this share price, one assumes Mr Market doesn't even think the brokers number can be achieved.|
|that's fair enough, i actually would prefer to pay the premium and be in the market leader dfs here anyway - i see the argument scs is cheaper, but its much smaller and less liquid, and the dfs online set up is better invested. i'm just looking around for cheap post brexit stocks which people have given up on or ignored|
|The accounts and ipo docs for these sofa businesses refer to marked seasonality in revenues, with the busiest time of the whole year after xmas through to end of january.
On my calcs, if you assume complete linearity over the 26 weeks, LFL was -1% in the final 10 weeks.
However, if you assume a 10 / 90 revenue split between the first 16 weeks to final 10 weeks, which i would guess is quite plausible, then the LFL was +2.5 in the final 10 weeks. Using the same revenue split for the prior year also, then you can work out that the comp for 10 weeks FY17 vs FY16 was +1.2% harder than the comp for 16 weeks FY17 vs FY16. (because last year they did +8.8 in the 26 weeks and +7.9 in the first 16 weeks, implying +9 in the final 10 weeks).
+2.5% + the +1.2% harder comp, implying the last 10 weeks of this 26 week period were actually quite good.|
|of the 26 weeks though, aren't the last 10 weeks where all the actual revenue is, basically december and january? Not the first 16 weeks when no one in their right mind is buying a sofa just before xmas and jan sales start. And the comps for the last 10 weeks are harder than the first 16 weeks. So i think the twitter post suggesting a linear approach to estimating LFL's through the period and coming out with negative for the final 10 weeks isn't correct at all. any other thoughts on this ?|
|In the interests of clarity I've sold out after an eagle eyed Simon Jackson on Twitter posted;
"@rhomboid1mf by my quick calcs LFL gone 1% -ve in past 10 weeks as 26wks +2.7% but 1st 16 weeks were +5.0%. Harder comparatives approach too
Thanks Simon you made me turn on a sixpence 🤔I've sold out for a modest profit as there's buyers around, no growth kills my interest 🙂"
I may be back if growth resumes and a profit is etc|
|Normally if a company pays a divi of over 8.5% there is an expectation that it will be cut as that is abnormally large but here we are.
If the divi was 5.5% I would consider that to be attractive and that would suggest a share price of over 250p but here we are!|
|I'm happy to hold and keep banking the dividends, 4 new stores in an Estate of 100 should add 2-3% revenue to the 2.7% LfL so we're looking at a minimum 5% growth in revenue and a rather larger % inc. in profit per annum, so a PE of c. 7, divi knocking on 9% and a big heap of cash even after netting off customers prepayments , can't see too many issues with all that!|
|Yes, solid if unexciting.
However, given the current metrics such as the PE ratio and yield, unexciting, solid, no nasty shocks, etc. should be fairly good news, no? Certainly today's comments should point to no worries concerning the dividend in the short term at least, which is now an incredible 8.5% based on current forecasts.
Also good to see the new stores trading strongly.
I'm reasonably happy with things for now.|
I had hoped for a slightly better LFL number.
I hate the way that all retailers are now basically saying that 2017 is going to be a bad year before it has really even started.
I will hold for the moment but if I see it return to the mid 180s where I entered I would be tempted to exit.|
ScS, one of the UK's largest retailers of upholstered furniture and floorings, today issues the following trading update ahead of announcing its interim results for the 26 weeks ended 28 January 2017 on 21 March 2017.
The Group has traded in line with the Board's expectations in the first half of the financial year and continues to make progress with its strategy for growth. The Group achieved like-for-like order intake growth of 2.7% for the 26 weeks ended 28 January 2017, a pleasing performance against particularly strong comparatives. Two year like-for-like order intake has grown 12.5%. Trading over the Christmas and January sales period was also in line with the Board's expectations.
Our four new stores in Aberdeen, Thanet, Plymouth and Straiton (Edinburgh) have seen strong trading since opening. Following these openings, the Group now trades from 100 ScS stores and operates 28 House of Fraser concessions.
We remain mindful that the Group still faces the key Easter and May bank holiday trading periods and faces very strong comparatives during the remainder of the year. The Board believes the business remains in a strong position to maximise opportunities as they arise and to grow market share.|
|I wonder if the drop on price over the last two days reflects a retail footfall report yesterday from the British Retail Consortium, which said that Footfall in December was -0.2% lower than a year earlier, made up of -0.7% in Retail Parks while the High St increased for the first time in 5 years.|
|Added a few, hopefully useful, links to the header.|
|Agreed current share price is modest indeed , notwithstanding the very generous dividend received, I'm expecting a very good update as big ticket item sales appear to have held up far better than doomsters have been pontificating to be the case. I visited my local branch and was very impressed with the presentation of stock and the professional way the sales process was dealt with. They also said they'd been v.busy and only had a couple of clearance items remaining and that was at the start of the Sale!
Looking forward to the update|
|Well hopefully the trading update can stir some interest here.
The last couple of very positive trading updates have been met with little interest.
They floated at 175p almost 2 years ago and have made pretty good progress since then so I do feel that the current share price is somewhat unfair.|