Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 21/1/2016 09:25

I'm seriously thinking of buying in here, its all down to timing.
On 14 May 2008, the share price of SMT was 142p - 6 months later, on 26 November, it hit 52p. There are 2 conclusions to be made from that: firstly, if the market gets really jittery SMT gets pounded. Secondly, if you can time your purchase right, you can make a fortune.
I don't know whether James Anderson's view of the future is correct, but it is certainly different, his track record is great, and it makes SMT a useful diversifier from other investments, which, if JA is correct, may be in for a torrid time. If we go through a period where the baby is thrown out with the bathwater, and things are market down indiscriminately, an unbelievable opportunity could open up here. Whether that happens may depend not on fundamentals, but on how many people, particularly in the US and China, are forced to close out positions. Exciting times!

[quepassa] 20/1/2016 16:19

fully agree.

qp.

[mad foetus] 20/1/2016 15:37

yes, but the markets look very sickly indeed and it wouldn't take much for capitulation to occur. I am sure SMT will bounce back, the question is simply one of trying to time an entry purchase.

[quepassa] 20/1/2016 14:01

My one observation is that their Net Asset Value announcement this morning was at 251p per share.

At 1.45pm today the share price is 235p.

That is a massive 16p discount to NAV being almost 6.5%.

As recently as December the share price was at a Premium to NAV of a couple of percent.

Because of the global sell-off today, the NAV tomorrow may perhaps be a guesstimate of 3% lower which would mean a reduction in NAV from today's 251p to 244p.

It does still seem an unusually large discount to NAV by recent historical standards.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[mad foetus] 20/1/2016 13:39

I am getting close to making an investment here. This looks a good entry point but SMT will always magnify movements in the wider market and so I'm waiting to see signs of stability, but I increasingly think SMT may be the place to be for the next 10-15 years.

[dr jekyll] 20/1/2016 10:01

Thanks for those two links QuePassa. Very helpful.

[quepassa] 19/1/2016 14:30

And:-



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 19/1/2016 14:25

'We are looking to generate extreme investment return.'

Why ScoMo is different from the rest of the pack.

Important reading for ScoMo followers.Three days ago




ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[mad foetus] 18/1/2016 13:49

quepassa,
Part of me fundamentally disagrees with you. Part of me is persuaded. ScoMo's track record cannot be ignored because "it doesn't work in theory". Thanks for your posts, they are thought provoking.

[shavian] 04/1/2016 19:05

China panic overdone imho.

[quepassa] 28/12/2015 21:48

Yes. Good post.

But surely the point is that there is not just one type of investor.

there are many different types of investor . And indeed many different investment strategies.

Over just 12 months, an investment in Amazon has gone up more than 100% against a flat market. That's fantastic performance.

Over 3 years, by 200%

Over 7 years, by 1,200%

Since flotation in 1997 at $1.50 per share by almost 450 times (45,000%) to the current share price of $670.

Personally, I think that is a great way to make money as an investor.

That's one place where I may politely beg to differ in my point of view to yours.

I do think it's the way to make money as an investor.

But each to his own. And horses for courses.

Using classical pe measurements/ratios and traditional dividend metrics do not in my experience sit comfortably alongside new-age tech stocks.

What is quite observable, is that a company with regular pe ratios and paying a dividend would not have achieved this type of growth over the last few years.

Of course, not all tech stock achieve this and many fall by the wayside. But the ones which become dominant in their chosen sectors display massive outperformance and give huge investor returns.

Let's hope that ScoMo keep on picking the right ones.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 28/12/2015 20:56

Yes, I don't think its the way to make money as an investor and Scottish Mortgage will get hid very hard in a bear market. That being said, I do think Amazon are a great company and might read the book you suggest at some point. Thanks.

[quepassa] 28/12/2015 09:38

yup. we had that discussion before. you are right. I don't disagree.

but like many of the pre-eminent tech giants Amazon invest so heavily that practically all income/profit is reinvested back into the company. many believe that's a great way to run a business rather than paying out dividends and producing a massive profit which is taxable.

they keep on building the business. and introducing new services which have shown themselves as world-beating already.

but the tipping point inevitably comes when the income has grown to such humongous proportions, that the dividend flood-gates open.

if you want regular p/e ratios and dividends, Amazon - as with most tech companies - is not for you.

This is a company which has gone from a start-up selling books online twenty years ago in 1995 to by far the most pervasive, dominant and ubiquitous on-line retailer in the world. That is before you start looking in awe at the staggering growth and take-up rate of their various recent cloud services.

I can highly recommend the Jeff Bezoz biography and Amazon story called, The Everything Store.

but you are absolutely right, zero-dividend / stratospheric pe tech stocks are not to everybody's liking. Good point. Well made.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 28/12/2015 09:07

They are indeed. Pity they don't make much of a profit or pay a dividend along with having a P/E that is in the stratosphere!

[quepassa] 28/12/2015 08:21

Can Amazon double this year?

Their Christmas sales are off the graph and truly astonishing. The take-up of Amazon Prime, devices and shopping services are extraordinary.

read the 28th. RNS.



ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 24/12/2015 09:53

Sounds like ScoMo isn't for you. Maybe you are right.

Some tech giants do hang around however, don't they?

Like Microsoft and Google.

For most of its young life, Microsoft didn't pay a dividend.

I guess we are hoping that ScoMo are spotting the right ones.

Personally, cannot think of a contender to Amazon. Nor Tessla. Nor Alibaba.


Can you?

All I know is that ScoMo are doing a good job at the moment.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 24/12/2015 09:20

Amazon is a truly great company, that there is no doubt. However, it doesn't pay a dividend and doesn't make good profits so what is the point for investors, other than riding a speculative bubble...it's share price will crash at some point as will a lot of the ridiculously priced US tech giants that are here today, gone tomorrow. At that point (whenever it comes) Scottish Mortgage will get hammered.

[quepassa] 24/12/2015 08:45

The FT is full of stories and praise for Amazon today whose share price has more than doubled this year.

Clearly this has helped the strong performance of ScoMo this year. Well done. A great pick.

ScoMo's top ten holdings are impressive reading making up more than 50% of the fund.

Reprising the Amazon theme however, today's FT Lex column waxes lyrical that theoretically, using Walmart and IBM metrics, the Amazon $650 share price may grow to $2,600 over time. Let's hope so.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 23/12/2015 17:59

Sold half of mine. Interested in their strategy, but don't really like it. Buying really expensive technology stocks isn't my style. Bought these in 2009 and, wow, haven't they done well. Will keep my small holding and add next time the world falls over again!

[quepassa] 23/12/2015 10:37

November Fund Fact Sheet now out.

Illumina has ( unsurprisingly) shot into 2nd position with a portfolio holding of 7.8%.

According to my calculations the November end Total Assets represented an all-time high of £4.04billion (probably higher now?)

Since the September/October slump, ScoMo have moved forward by significantly more than 15% against a lack-lustre market.

That's remarkable going over two months for a £3.5-4billion fund.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 22/12/2015 09:35

Tardy in issuing the November fund fact sheet.

Illumina did well yesterday.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 18/12/2015 11:31

About time they released the November Monthly Factsheet!

QP

[quepassa] 17/12/2015 06:16

Expectant of a good day for ScoMo.

For example, Alibaba +2.5%, Amazon + 2.6% and Tesla +6.1%


Over the last one or two months, Illumina has been a star performer. From $140 to $185. Their third largest holding.


ScoMo are issuing too many shares again. They need a moratorium on that.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[dr jekyll] 07/12/2015 13:32

Agree with you re the share issuing.

[quepassa] 07/12/2015 09:11

It seems to me that the price of this investment trust share would be quite a bit higher if ScoMo didn't keep on issuing so many Treasury Shares to satisfy seemingly strong market demand.

Whilst issuing shares from Treasury has some benefits in aligning prices with NAV, it seems to me that ScoMo are being somewhat overzealous in their frequent use of Treasury Shares.

Looks to me that we shall soon be retesting the April high of c 282p quite soon and hopefully onwards thereafter to a new all-time high.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP