Savile Group Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 16/11/2011 08:52

I would really really urge anyone who is a shareholder here to attend the Agm on Friday. I think it will be a classic and that the Board need to know exactly where they stand in relation to shareholders and explain all of the management actions that have taken place over the last 18 months or so.

[parvez] 15/11/2011 12:00

Des,
You are right - if they can keep a tight ship over the next 12-18 months they should come out well thereafter - I am in for the long term on this and may even try and top up more if I can.
P

[deswalker] 15/11/2011 10:49

Parvez,

The impression I get from speaking with management is that trading is excellent at IDDAS and good at Fairplace Cedar with a strong pipeline of financial services work likely to follow in the new year as the City prepares for a big jobs cull.

The remaining businesses are trading profitably but they had a bad three months at 7 days before they closed it down so it might be that the first half only breaks even. But if one excludes the one-off 7 days losses then it has to be on an atractive PE with a large slug of cash.

I will be at the AGM on Friday. I gather they have prepared some presentations and the like and from a brief conversation with FinnCap a while ago I think they are going to try and start pushing the story to the institutions again to try and get something back for the poor souls who bought in much higher up.

All they have to do is keep costs low and run a tight ship with their existing businesses which have the capacity to generate profits close to the market cap as we saw a few years back.

Des

[parvez] 15/11/2011 09:55

Thanks, Des for posting the above. Looks like action starting...

[deswalker] 08/11/2011 18:54

Further evidence of an improvement in trading conditions within SAVG's core business of Financial Services outplacement comes from PNA's Interim Results to 30 September 2011 released on 2 November ...



Towards the end of the period under review we saw a marked increase in outplacement demand from our clients in financial services, which represents 27% of the division's revenues. Demand for outplacement from the financial services sector peaked in 2009 following the crisis of 2008 and this is the first time since then that we have seen rising demand from our 64 financial services clients.

It is worth remembering that in the year to June 2009 SAVG generated an Operating Profit in excess of the current market cap.

[deswalker] 08/11/2011 18:47

Just discovered this dated 18 October 2011 ....



City firms 'warning of job cuts'
A "double dip" jobs shake-out in the City is expected to result in thousands of redundancies before Christmas. Investment banks that had hoped for a recovery in financial markets have decided to press ahead with job cuts, according to recruitment experts. Outplacement agencies hired by banks to help former staff find new work say they have seen "a big uptick" in business. Linda Jackson, managing director of Fairplace Cedar, said: "A number of our big clients have been calling to warn of more people likely to be coming in this side of Christmas." Goldman Sachs has announced a big drop in revenue in the third quarter of its financial year.

[parvez] 27/10/2011 08:24

Des, yes it was 37.5k available at 9p from 1 of the 3 MMs and i should have taken it!

[playful] 26/10/2011 13:49

I have put my buy order in @ 9p so lets see what happens..

[deswalker] 26/10/2011 13:34

Liars, I looked at JCR as I guessed they'd hold the divi but it didn't look that cheap on an EV basis when based on recent trading perfomance. I decided to pass.

Parvez, are you sure 37.5k were available at 9p or is that just what Selftrade was saying when you got your quote for 10k ? Often one finds that Selftrade's available sizes are not there at the same price as you are quoted in smaller size. I should know as I play around with trade size all the time to optimize the price for these microcaps. The spreads are so wide that it makes a huge difference. That said, 37.5k at 9p would have been a steal.

[parvez] 26/10/2011 13:25

Playful, I could have got 37,500. Be patient and you may be a ble to pick up at around 10. Alternatively tell your broker to try at 9 as there is another 27,500 to be had me thinks...

[liarspoker] 26/10/2011 13:23

Hi Des - you probably won't like this one as its delisting but JCR is trading on a very cheap level. P/E of about 2.2, just over 2X owner earnings, no debt and 11%+ divi which is 3X covered and will be maintained ( I spoke to management ). Worthy of a small stake imo. :O)

Sorry for intrucion SAVG holders but I used to hold and am watching.

Edit: Ok, thanks for the reply Des.

[playful] 26/10/2011 13:19

Good buy Parvez !

[playful] 26/10/2011 13:18

Funnily enough I did try for 10K when I noticed the 9p go through but was told the asking price was 11p so thought I'd wait.

[parvez] 26/10/2011 13:18

Hi Des,
Thanks for your post - puts it all into perspective. That was me dabling 10k at 9p. I should have bought a lot more :(
cheers
P :)

[deswalker] 26/10/2011 12:57

Parvez,

The impression I get is that Penny de Valk is very good and I was worried that there may be conflict between her and Linda Jackson at the top of Fairplace Cedar. I also don't think Linda Jackson's performance at the top of Fairplace (alongside Michael Moran who left at the start of the year) has been as good as it perhaps should have been, even allowing for the difficult trading environment within the sector.

I'm getting a little more hopeful that things may start to improve with a simplified leadership structure at both IDDAS and Fairplace Cedar. I just hope that the two largest shareholders stop interferring and trying to grow the business by acquisition and I suspect they have now learned their lesson. They should just see the existing businesses as cash generating units which facilitate the payment of dividends to shareholders. The share price will then react accordingly. A 1.5p dividend ought to support a 25p share price and would only cost £225k per annum, a profit figure which they ought to be achieve easily with the existing businesses and getting rid of any staff who are underperforming.

I think you're being too optimistic with your cash estimation as I believe there will be some more exceptional costs to come out during the current financial year but nonetheless I think the share is too cheap by quite some margin.

Des

ps Someone got a nice 10k at 9p. Was that you playful ?

[parvez] 26/10/2011 11:37

Des, why good news? Any insight much appreciatted. LJ had a 5% stake in SAVG (some purchased at 37p i believe). I wonder in Cohen will snap that up too?

Just did some number crunching. I believe they have £1.2M in cash which is the capitalisation of the company so thy could buy shares for cancellation. At this price it is a steal IMHO.

[deswalker] 26/10/2011 10:32

Just announced that Linda Jackson is leaving which gives Penny de Valk a clear run at developing Fairplace Cedar. Good news IMO.

[playful] 19/10/2011 08:14

Will we ever be completely shot of Jonathan Cohen?

[pictureframe] 13/10/2011 19:52

Management do not cut it - simple as. This will become another AIM ghost share imho.

[deswalker] 12/10/2011 10:11

All that is true and I hope he simply retires once the new Chariman takes over.

But on an EV of less than half a million I think they are currently trading profitably and that we could see a continuing EBITDA of 250k this year for an EV / EBITDA ratio of 2 and perhaps the reinstatement of a 1p dividend.

I think we can rest assured that we will not be seeing any more acquisitions so the cash pile would seem secure.

[deswalker] 11/10/2011 13:38

Well call me an idiot but I bought another 15k this morning.

As of 30 June Current Assets minus All Liabilities equate to the current online buy price. Ofcourse with this company's recent history one could argue "so what?" and with some justification but I think it's fair to say they won't be doing it again for a long time especially now that things are changing at the top.

Even so, one could still argue that times are tough and they made a loss last year so who's to say that things will improve. Once again it is difficult to argue against. But the Outlook statement was cautiously optimistic and various conversations lead me to believe they have been trading better recently.

Also based upon what I believe to be a reasonable assumption that trading at 7 days had presumably been getting worse as the last second half progressed whilst the second half loss as a whole was in line with expectations would seem to indicate an improving trend at the other two continuing businesses over the April, May & June period. Further evidence that things may well have been stabilised.

Anyway, I see possibly quite considerable upside at the current price. A 1p per annum dividend (8.5% yield) would cost £150k per year and would be more than three times covered by earnings if they can return profitability to the levels of FY to Jun 10 let alone the year before.

IMO, DYOR

[deswalker] 10/10/2011 10:34

Correct assuming that the full range of services offered by Fairplace and Cedar back then continue to be offered by Fairplace Cedar - an assumption which seems highly likely to me.

[harrogate] 10/10/2011 09:27

Ok Thanks..so if i looked back the sales figures from those years would be the same businesses as they have now?
Thanks
H

[deswalker] 10/10/2011 09:15

All I know is ...

The two remaining units form the same assets as existed in FY07/08 when they generated a PBT in excess of the current Enterprise Value, the same as existed FY08/09 when they generated a PBT approaching three times the current EV and the same as existed in FY09/10 when once again they did a PBT approaching the current EV.

From the RNS this morning and various conversations I get the impression that these assets are trading better than they have been during FY10/11.

They have restructured down to a lower cost base at Fairplace Cedar and have brought in a very well regarded boss who is settling in well but it is still early days. However, one might suppose that margins at that division could be even better going forward and if Revenue improves this will all fall to the bottom line.

The makeup of the Board is getting better with more independence and oversight. I see no reason why the new strategy won't have completely changed from acquisitive growth (been there, done that, botched it) to simply sweating and developing the current brands and returning proceeds to shareholders as dividends. We shall see.

However DYOR as I am clearly biased owning rather a lot of shares at over twice this level.