|Not in the lull before a rugby match but 3 months now in this trading range. I find it therapeutic to look at potential by doing some calculations whilst I am waiting but I do realise that figures are not for everyone. I was hoping for some discussion or corrections and that's why I posted.
Of course calculations can lead to a conclusion of overvalued as well as undervalued, which might be the case here if we exclude the potential and the quality of management.
I'm aware that I fall into the trap of having a rose tinted viewpoint when I invest in a company, so doing some figures when there's no newsflow is essential for me whilst others might just bury their head in the (mineral) sands.
I've found there is reason to comment whether it be charts, figures and fundamentals, potential, quality of management, political stability, weather, price of commodities or just the share price
I agree with your last paragraph and of course we need more information to value the company but in the meatime let's work with what we have.
From the Decemer presentation page 6, although it clearly states there is uncertainty the figures will be reached, it does state the high end of the exploration target is 29 250 000 t at 2.4% Cu which would have an inground value for SAV of almost £2Billion.
Now that's exciting!|
|Ged, in the lull before the rugby starts, no doubt we are all waiting for an increase in the share price there rarely seems to be much correlation or definitive method of valuation and invariably seems to be a difference the reality and the should be especially with early stage projects.Mrs Mitty was commenting how quickly this year was disappearing just yesterday and yet I was thinking that we are only two thirds through the first quarter. there is much news that should be with us by the end of the next month which unfortunately we shall simply have to wait for. At that point, hopefully there will be reason to comment.Meanwhile, good set of books and tremendous review of what had been a good year, with an exciting preview for 2017 and beyond. The underpin from a supportive key shareholder and the quality of the assets and agreements in place bring an aura of inevitability to my mind as the projects develop and that time will cement the valuations in the future as real values can be assessed and priced in.|
|Nearing the end of Q1 so what can we expect? There were 2 important notifications mentioned in the results for this quarter with another possible 3.
"The results of a high-powered ground electromagnetic ('EM') survey commenced at Lasail and Bayda are expected in Q1 2017."
"Block 5 in Oman updated Mineral Resource estimate in Q1 2017.
I'm sure all of us will be interested in the second one.
In December I did a calculation of a total in-ground value of Block 5 attributed to SAV, with the result £101 508 664. At the time the market cap was £26.92.
Today I get the result of £105 244 183. The mkt cap given in the header is £25.93!
For the December figures I used $2.5/lb and £1.2/$. Today $2.7/lb and $1.25/$.
The stronger copper price has slightly been offset by the stronger £.
Even without the updated mineral resource we should be trading higher.
If the mineral resource has a significant change to the upside and with the noise coming from Mozambique could we expect a rerate?
Any comments welcome!|
|Does anyone have the latest prices for ilmenite, zircon and rutile?
I saw them recently on a link but can't remember where!|
|"Although El Soldado is a small mine by Chilean mining standards, its eventual stoppage could make a difference in the market, especially now when the two largest copper deposits in the world, Escondida in Chile and Grasberg in Indonesia, are facing tough challenges."
So many problems with Chile and Indonesia which look like bringing about higher copper prices.|
|Not sure I agree with the last bit, Bronco but it has become more important in terms of size.
£390K was used in almost 2 months. They now have 3.02M expected to increase to 4.03M so they should have enough for approximately 10 months pro rata. I can’t see this sensible management going down to the wire so I expect a placing early Autumn unless an opportunity arises.
So what can we expect in the meantime?
From today’s RNS
Ravene Scoping Study
Mineral sands industry expert TZ Minerals International ('TZMI') has been commissioned to conduct the study, with completion expected by the end of Q1 / early Q2 2017.
Environmental studies for, respectively, the Mutamba Project North and Chilubane deposit expected to be finalised by the end of Q1 / early Q2 2017.
Then pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, commission a pilot plant, proof-of-concept bulk sampling programme, determine commercially viable processing routes and commence mine construction, which is targeted to commence in 2018..
Block 5 updated Mineral Resource estimate in Q1 2017..
Then feasibility studies and ultimately Ore Reserves.
Mining targeted to commence in late 2017.
Produce first copper concentrate in 2018.
Environmental Impact Assessment ('EIA'). finalisation of the EIA is expected in Q2 2017.
Results from additional test work is also underway to further refine the recovery process and try to improve the overall copper concentrate grades. No time scale given.
The results of a high-powered ground electromagnetic ('EM') survey commenced at Lasail and Bayda are expected in Q1 2017.
Follow up work (to previous drilling) is now being planned for Q1 / early Q2 2017.
So much in FOUR months some of it in 5 weeks! Haven't this management got a record of delivering on time?|
|Decent no nonsense update there. Scoping study should increase book value further, sounds like it is nearly done. Should mean a chance of the feasibility studies being done this year all being well. Mineral sands seems to be pushing ahead of copper in the race to production now...|
|Just tucked into a few more.|
|Yorkie, Al Ma have 2/4 directors on the board and would not be able to trade their shares during the closed period. This period is for about 2 months up until the publication of the final accounts and is not necessarily based on any other news that is set to land as far as SAV is concerned.As Ged rightly reminds, there was a placing last year prior to notification of the AGM, and it leaves the company going into the expected news season, with a full bank account. This will mean that any positive news that does land will be seen as positive news and for what it is rather than an attempt to ramp prior to a placing.Al Ma had already stated that they wanted to maintain their shareholding at the max. Remy must have decided that this was the best place for his bonus as he has increased his holding again. All in all, we should be happy.|
We've been told often enough. December presentation, Oman presentation, Indaba interviews. We know good news is about to break. It's only the results that bring about a closed period.|
this indicates to me that news is coming with this closed period coming to an end to allow Al Marjan in for placement shares.
Must be good news coming because would you retain your holding if not?
15-2-16 Cash Placing of £1.75 million
18-2-16 Final Results and Notice of AGM
22-2-16 Oman Copper Gold - Project Update
Closed period clarification:-
Issue 4 of Inside AIM considered the close period rule and confirmed the Exchange’s interpretation of this rule as being the period of two months preceding the publication of an issuer’s annual accounts in accordance with Rule 19 (ie when the accounts are published and sent to shareholders). They confirmed the general position that a close period ends when full compliance with Rule 19 has taken place.
Alternatively, for issuers making use of the electronic communications provisions to send accounts to shareholders, if a Nomad is satisfied that an issuer has uploaded its annual accounts on to its website in accordance with Rule 26 and this fact and the key information in those accounts has been notified to the market, then the Nomad can consider the close period ended.
This has raised the question of when the close period rule begins if an issuer publishes a preliminary statement of its results (prelims), as is often the case. AIM Regulation has verbally confirmed that, if an issuer wishes to produce prelims, the close period will begin two months prior to publication of the prelims. However, the Nomad will need to write to AIM Regulation and obtain its approval for the two month period to close on publication of the prelims.
AIM Regulation has said that this will not always be the case, eg if the prelims are unaudited or if they do not reflect closely enough the full accounts to close off the close period. However, if an issuer follows Listing Rule 9.7A.1 (preliminary statement of annual results) as a benchmark, one would hope that this would satisfy the Exchange’s requirements.
Look at the chart since then. If the format works - why change it?|
|On the targets people get muddled up with SAVP...no one has an 80p target on our SAV (yet).|
|Where do they find these people?
Philip Whiterow it's MOZAMBIQUE
stephens on the other board - previous placing price 3.5p
Daily Quint and other US sites giving target prices are for entertainment only. Northland Securities - really?
I must get up today - things are annoying me!|
|Agree that proving up the Finland resource and then farming a major player in is a good move.|
|I don't really consider this to be news, although I had hoped for it to be at a higher price.
Shares gone into supportive hands and at least the warrants are at a premium.
Maybe a slight drag on the share price for a week or so then the news starts.
Agree IB! Zimbabwe is on the ever growing list of countries where I wouldn't invest.|
|Placing but at a reasonable price. Oversubscribed which is good.|
|Yes, methinks you need to be a brave bunny to take the added political risk in Zimbabwe. See that Bacanora have taken. 50% stake in revitalising a lithium mine in Germany.The point I seem to be garnering is that whilst lithium in some form or another is readily available, not all available resource will be any where near economical to take through to mining, unless the demand outstrips supply and price acts as the adjuster. Do wonder if after getting the Finland site up to speed, ie understanding the potential, whether it would be flipped into a relatively hot market, possibly with some sort of trail fee, on the basis that not many Christmas trees are sold in January, even in Finland.|
|Things looking rosy today and laying the foundations for the Spring push to 8p with the expected newsflow|
|Did you find the PDF file on Processing of a Zimbabwean petalite to obtain lithium carbonate? It mentions average percentages of 4.1% Lithium Oxide which ties in with LedZep's linked article on petalite.
Slow going this morning. I wouldn't be surprised with a tick down today with a movement up later in the week.
I've revised my hunch to news next week rather than this one.
Guess what happened as I was typing?|
|Ged5, good find on the Finland details. Will look to read through the 'heavy stuff' this evening at some stage.Would seem to be preparing itself for a push up, which is always good.|
Worth reading further in that link. Shows how far we have to go before production there.
Didn't get to listen to this earlier in the week. From Tuesday:-
Potential by-product of Zinc in Oman
Significant global resource in Mozambique. Rising prices of ilmenite.|
|Great research Ged. Once we get some cash flowing going from Oman DA can really put his foot on the gas wth that project.|