Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 34.625p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:39:32
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -6.7 -3.2 - 73.64

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Date Time Title Posts
21/11/201710:15◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►1,575

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Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 34.63p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 34.63p and a 12 week average price of 34.63p.
The 1 year high share price is 44p while the 1 year low share price is currently 25p.
There are currently 212,675,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 0 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £73,638,873.52.
bushranger: honestmarty- I do agree with that assessment. Though the deal can still be likend to the BHS sale. SE is virtually bankrupt, worthless as a going concern because it cant pay the bills. It needs a large injection of cash which the Chinese will provide along with debt restructure. Like the BHS deal it is not do much about how much will I pay for it but what am I prepared to put in to keep it going. I agree that effectively SAVP could be used as a means to list the new entity on AIM. Ironically that will leave SAVP as a Chinese owned Nigerian oil company listed on AIM! I can see investors lining up for that one :/ I dont see the Chinese paying a huge premium to SAVP. The deal is going to cost and it may or may not prove positive to the share price when assests, risk, debt, dilution is added up.
bushranger: The RTO by SAVP could be likend to the ill fated BHS deal a few years back. Remember it was sold for £1? Why did Mr Green sell that huge British Company for only £1? Because it was effectively bankrupt. I think AK is buying an oil producing Nigerian BHS. If the deal goes ahead and the company can be turned around then yes, many multiples of the current share price will be seen. Easier said than done, just as the new £1 owners of BHS found out.
bushranger: Unfortunately anybody who tries to have a sensible discussion about the SAVP deal is immeadiately denounced as a fraud or deramper if they dont gush about the many multiples of the current frozen share price it will relist at. I am not expecting a big increase in the share price on relist and have resigned myself to a possible drop. It will be the RTO deal (or it falling through) that will determine the price. Anybody who beleives a RTO means instant multiples of a current shareprice is s fool or lier.
zengas: I have a small holding in San Leon (SLE) bought before suspension as a trading punt based on a possible offer by China Great United Petroleum indicated at a 67-76p range. Currently 34p (suspended). In Jan 2016 SLE announced a Nigerian deal to acquire 9.72% of OML-18. This is their main asset and have a few very small/minor assets (with nothing in comparison to Savps Niger blocks). Gross production 54,000 bopd & 55 mmcf/d (total 63,000 boepd). In July 2016 there was 62.33m shares in issue. The deal was classed as a RTO and SLE raised £170m @ 45p issuing 378.4m shares in August 2016. Currently 456.2m shares in issue. OML-18 figures = Gross production 54,000 bopd & 55 mmcf/d = total 63,000 boepd (SLE having 9.72%). Gross 2P reserves = 576 mmbo & 4.72 TCF gas = 1.276 mmboe (125 mmboe -SLE). Gross 2C resources = 203 mmbo & 1.6 TCF gas = 304 mmboe. Total 2P+ 2C gross = 1.58 billion boe ( SLE have 9.72% so approx 154 mboe ). 30th June 2017 = "Receipt of conditional offer for the Company and publication of annual accounts. China Great United has proposed an indicative purchase price of approximately 67-76 pence per share" 7th September 2017. "After the reporting period we announced that we were in discussions with a further three entities, and in June 2017 we announced a conditional offer from China Great United Petroleum (Holding) Limited. Following the end of the 45-day due diligence period San Leon anticipates an update from China Great United Petroleum (Holding) Limited in the near-term". With 456.2m shares an offer of 67-76p would be valuing their 9.72% Nigerian interest at £305m - £346m. Given the size of Seven Energys assets, we might know soon if we are getting a bargain or not. AK reported as seeking Chinese finance by Africa Intelligence. Well documented in recent posts and links about serious Chinese investment particularly into Nigerias gas sector both in fields and pipeline building. Now an indicative offer by a Chinese company for an OML interest. Worth noting that SLEs RTO on the Nigerian deal was done at a 54.5% premium to it's share price at time of suspension (45p v 29.15p pre RTO). 26/8/16 "Conditionally raised approximately £170.3 million (US$221.4 million) through an issue of 378,400,000 new ordinary shares by way of a placing at a placing price of 45 pence per Ordinary Share, a 54.5% premium to the last traded price of 29.125p".
lithological heterogeneities: Diversified RE: Looking VERY good Today 15:31 Given the fact CGG Robertson completed the initial CPR alongside the admission document and upgraded our resources only recently, the new CPR must be near to completion as suggested. With due diligence taking place since January and the PTSM received shortly after the update on the 7th June I wouldn't be surprised to see a further operational update next week which outlines the financial implications of the RTO, this would then be followed by a further update which accompanies the CPR and admission document. If we know one thing, news flow drives a share price and SAVP was due to be entering a news rich period with drilling over the summer period. Well we now have Nigeria to boot and the news flow will just keep coming. The suggested equity raise price by Agadem will go a long way in ensuring existing shareholder exposure/dilution concerning our Niger assets is minimal, and the downside is all kept to a minimum. To say I am excited is an understatement.
ngms27: I don't give a sh1t about ambitions of the CEO and his Empire Building. As an investor all I care about is the share price. It's quite feasible if not probable that we are going to end up with a larger Company, with a lower share price and lower net impact from the Niger drills. That's not why I bought the shares and if this scenario plays out I and others will have been well and truly Rodgered.
diversification: My take on the RNS, whilst it didn't contain a lot of new information (due on the 7th), gave us an insight into progress to date: RNS comments -- My comments ++ -- An additional export route for Agadem crude to the Kaduna refinery in northern Nigeria is being advanced; ++ As also picked up on by Malcy, this news could drop into the share price at any time thereby increasing the net asset value of any discovery by $1.4 a barrel at $60 crude. A material increase to the share price whenever this news comes to fruition. -- "We believe the business is now well positioned to deliver a material step change in value for our stakeholders, and look forward to providing a significant update on our drilling plans and forward strategy at our upcoming Capital Markets Event in London on 7 June 2017." -- An initial three well campaign (with up to six individual options which can be exercised in the event of success). ++ The obvious is the drilling plans, 3D, drill location and prospective resource per well, perhaps another increase in leads and therefore risked resource base. ++ The forward strategy is where we can get speculative and given AK previous roles he will realise this. Without saying as much with the short to medium term focused on Niger as stated in this update, this must only leave a potential farm in. AK has stated that he and the board expects this to be a drilling campaign and as such it is reasonable to expect more than 3 wells. 6 additional wells if we find oil but how will these be funded if we don't have a JV partner with deep pockets!!! Value accretive means minimising shareholder dilution through equity finance in my book. -- The use of proceeds of the financing was to fund our first 3D seismic survey and our initial drilling campaign. ($40m fund raise) -- The data acquired is of excellent quality, and although our interpretation of the results is ongoing, initial indications are highly positive. (R3 EAST) ++ To understand the scale of this acreage the completed 3D only covers a portion of R3. The scale of this acreage is massive. -- Savannah's review of its acreage has shown that significant play potential exists in this formation, and that this usually sits directly above Eocene leads and therefore offers attractive "stacked" targets to evaluate exploration prospectivity across multiple horizons. ++ I would of thought the upcoming targets must be stacked and therefore drastically increased our chances of success. The board keeps making reference to the 'sweet spot' and the 'repeatable' success that must be transferable from CNPC's assets. -- We are also in discussions with our partners in relation to the pursuit of other potential opportunities in Nigeria, and look forward to providing further updates on this over the course of 2017. ++ Again bonus news which will drive volume and therefore share price, this could be a hidden gem as pointed out by ZENGAS. -- Over the course of the year, exploration and evaluation assets grew from US$81m at year end 2015 to US$97m at year end 2016. ++ This puts into perspective the current 'back costs' associated with our asset, not including the estimated $1.5 billion of data we inherited. Another reason why a JV partner has to pay for a higher than normal chance of success.
zengas: My current view. 2185 mmbls risked recoverable which is likely to increase after the current 3D programme providing more upside. 95% interest = 2.075 billion bls. Govt share of 15-20% across all 4 licences. Therefore at least 1.71 billion bls net potential (pre any farm out). Page 8 latest broker valuation gives 155p per 126 mmboe net. So using those figures - 1700 mmbls recoverable = £21.00 possible value but needing some modest dilution later down the road for future drilling funds if going it alone. Farm out could bring significant cash impact injection depending on % amount farmed out perhaps $100m-$200m of drilling funds such is the opportunity and high COS spread over a good number of prospects. Should a 50% farmout occur - A 50% stake gives an overall 850 mmbls net or £10.50 target and less future dilution. Eocene targets given as 79% COS and overall average including other stacked targets give 67% COS. You don’t get much better than that. Chinese success was 975 mmbls and up to 80% success rate. If SAVP were to get just 25-35% success rate and on a 50% farm out, share price target has to be worth 260 -360p + impact of any farm value in negating need for future finance re drilling. Any early success from the fully funded programme for the initial wells could forward price in some of the potential huge future upside for additional success - imo over £2 - ie similarly as per Sound Energy at £520m m/cap (no reserves declared other than having 2 well tests and now on an EWT). Savp floated at 58p and last funding at 38p (while the share price was 23p) so that's only a 4 -5 upside for those substantial investors. A further opportunity is this, (in this current year) - ie Broker note mentions that ‘NNPCs exploration arm (FES) on the Nigerian side has received approval for a very large 5,000 km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and a 6 well drilling campaign. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding on its portion of the rift basin. In exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs’. This could yet prove significant value in a success case.
thomasthetank1: Hi all - Thought you might like to see Mirabaud's positive take on yesterday's releases. After the close yesterday, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced an upbeat operational update and separate strategic tie-up with the Nigerian Government for operations in neighbouring Nigeria. The timing of the announcement was designed to coincide with an analyst site visit and presentation that took place yesterday in Niger. The Nigerian deal is multi-faceted. Firstly, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with State-owned affiliates NNDC and NNPC to provide technical assistance to their northern exploration arm, FES (Frontier Exploration Services), in the Nigerian portion of the Central African Rift System. FES has received approval for a ~5,000km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and six well drilling campaign in this area (starting in 2017) amidst a Government push to regenerate the north of the country under President Buhari. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding of the Niger portion of the Central African Rift. Meanwhile, in exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back in right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs. Secondly, in parallel with the Nigerian & Niger Governments and other stakeholders, SAVP has established a more profitable export solution for any oil discovered in its Niger licences. This will involve the export of crude (initially via truck, prior to the construction of a pipeline) from the Agadem basin to the Kaduna refinery in north-central Nigeria, located ~800km away (this option was not considered a priority under the former Goodluck Jonathon administration in Nigeria). Construction of the pipeline is expected to funded by a pipeline consortium, likely including the Governments of Nigeria and Niger, SAVP (through a separate infrastructure SPV) and other third parties. This provides an alternative export route and therefore reduces dependence on the CNPC’s sponsored Agadem-Chad export line. It also has two other key advantages for SAVP: firstly it will enable early exports via truck, potentially bringing forward production and cash flow. And secondly, it is economically more attractive. Running a long term oil price of US$60/bb (inflated at 2%) SAVP estimates a breakeven (10% IRR) of US$35/bbl for trucked crude to Kaduna and just US$26/bbl if the crude is piped. We would add that these economics have been independently verified by CGG (SAVP’s reserve auditor) and include significant capital cost savings (maximum cash draw-down to first oil now US$200m vs. US$410m before) achieved through the transfer of capex into opex (the most significant aspect of which is the inclusion of an early production facility using a material amount of rental equipment). Turning to the operation update, SAVP continues to make solid progress on the ground in Niger with 3D acquisition underway in the R3 block and completion seen in February 2017. This ~800km2 dataset will take about four months to process and interpret, providing further definition on the 2D-defined structures in the block (numbering 12 prospects) and potentially unlocking new targets. As planned, drilling is set to commence in mid-H1 2017, most likely on the Damissa prospect in R1 (93 mmbbls of prospective resources) which already has 3D coverage, followed by Bushiya (37 mmbbls) and Kunama (35 mmbbls) in R3. A drilling contract is expected to be sealed in January 2017 and will conclude 3 firm wells and multiple optional slots. Having raised US$40m of equity over the summer the company is funded for up to 5 wells from its own cash resources with the potential to unlock considerable value. Assuming five wells targeting ~200 mmbbls on aggregate, we estimate total unrisked upside of 194p/shr – compared to the current share price of 27.5p/shr – even before factoring in the economic improvements discussed above. Overall, yesterday’s update brings several new elements to SAVP’s story that enhance the investment case in our view. The establishment of the exploration tie-up with FES brings material optionality at low cost, whilst the new export route provides an alternative to the Chad pipeline and enhances project economics – emphasising the attractive breakeven price for Agadem crude (something that can do no harm in ongoing farm-out talks). For the market, meanwhile, confirmation of SAVP’s low risk, multi-well drilling campaign in H1 may be of more importance. Once a drilling contract is signed and the timeline is set in stone we see this as the key catalyst for a re-rating of the shares.
dalesman: It’s been a while since I updated my Savannah Petroleum spreadsheets. A lot has happened in the interval, including a rapidly falling oil price and a downgrading of the long-term oil price assumption. As with most oil shares the share price has fallen in line with this fall in POO, many companies have fallen much more than the percentage decline in the oil price. In comparison Savannah has done quite well. Savannah had a recent high of 44p and a low of 28p. Current Share Price is 32.5p at the time of writing this post. We are now entering an exciting period in the life cycle of this company and some interesting times lie ahead starting with the next 3 months. Lets have a look at how the company stands right now. To view the post plus the screenshots of the spreadsheets referred to in this post go to HTTP:// Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 16.20.34 A screen shot of the Summary Page sets the scene. We have 193m shares in issue following a placing that raised $38m to purchase two further blocks, R3 and R4 in the Agadem Rift Basin in Niger. The company raised this money at a premium to the then current share price The current market cap is 62.7m We have around 8 million in cash and this works out at around 4p per share. A competent persons report on the companies R1 and R2 blocks revealed 1.191 million prospective resources, a significant number. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 17.50.34 The Chinese have achieved an 80% success rate using 3D seismic. Savannah has in addition to 2D and 3D seismic undertaken a Full Tensor Gravimetric Survey carried out by Arkex and this has been integrated into their sub surface model, helping to identify 14 drilling prospects, which they hope to start to drill in Q4 of 2015. They are actively looking for an industry partner willing and able to inject $150m plus into the partnership. Lets look at the position before any farm in. The Summary Page encapsulates all this information. Savannah has a 95% entitlement on blocks R1 and R2 but the Niger Government has the right to a 20% back in so on success Savannah has 95 x 80 / 100 = 76%. Without any farmin partner SAVP has a fully diluted 76% entitlement before the details of the PSC are applied. You can view this figure in column P. The Tax Opex and Capex workbook handles Royalties etc. Without going into detail regarding the working of the Reserves Analysis Sheet the valuation based on 8 million barrels being achieved from the first five wells comes out at £2.41 Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.10.11 based on a $65 long term oil price assumption. If the current oil price is applied then this reduces to £1.27 If the company decides to go it alone and raises £25 m to fund a 5 well drilling program, increasing the shares in issue by say 80m then my target reduces to £1.25 with 273m shares in issue and using the current oil price. All these price target figures include a 25% reduction due to negative sentiment relating to the oil sector as a whole. The management options vest at £1.14 However….. It is quite clear that the preferred way forward is to attract a farmin partner willing and able to inject $150 - $200 million into the venture. I’m assuming that 50% of SAVPs entitlement will be given up to secure this deal so this reduces the entitlement figure from 76% to 38% but increases the cash by say $154m or £100m. This would raise the cash per share from 4p to 56p without raising the shares in issue. The figure would fund 25 plus wells being drilled in the Agadem Basin. Double click on the image to see full size. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.14.03 The resulting target is now £1.15 based on 8 million barrels found from the 5 wells but a cash injection of $150m would allow 25 wells to be funded with say a 40m target. This raises my initial target to £1.27 at the current share price if a long-term oil price assumption of $65 is applied this figure rises to £1.73 (see above) This is, IMHO, an ultra conservative initial valuation. Remember over 1 billion barrels are inferred in the CPR. Effectively this valuation only allows for 40m barrels to be moved into the 2P reserves category. My initial target, giving an upside from the current share price of around 300% is possibly on the cards remembering that when the options vest additional shares will be issued. The Chinese had an 80% success rate when translating prospective resources into 2P reserves. My figures are using a 60% chance of success for an initial 25 well drilling campaign targeting 40m of 2P reserves. This leaves just short of a billion barrels still to be accessed! We need only 4.39 mb of 2P reserves to cover the current share price The nice thing about my software is that it is simple to change the scenarios . Please do your own research and act accordingly and good luck with your investments. Hope that helps Kind regards Phil I hold Dalesmann gives no advice on buying selling and holding this, or any other stock mentioned in his posts. His posts are for education only.
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