Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 41.125p 40.50p 41.75p 41.25p 41.00p 41.125p 110,030 11:00:27
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -5.0 -3.4 - 87.46

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Date Time Title Posts
22/5/201711:01◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►417

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Savannah Petrol (SAVP) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
23/5/2017
09:20
Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 41.13p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 36.63p and a 12 week average price of 29.25p.
The 1 year high share price is 42.88p while the 1 year low share price is currently 22.75p.
There are currently 212,675,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 508,910 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £87,462,777.58.
12/5/2017
17:01
diversification: For those who have based an investment on the possibility of a farm out I think your chances of success are 50/50. Fact is your chances of success with the drill bit in the ground based on previous success on the same basin of over 100 wells is 75%. Reduce that chance of success to 33% and we will still hit oil based on our expensive 3DS but will own 100% of the acreage if they don't farm out. Worst case scanario and they don't find oil in the first three wells they have the option of another six wells and are fully funded. It's a case of sit back and relax imo, newsflow is about to significantly ramp up which will drive the volume and the share price. With less than 36% in free float this share is very cheap imo. The reason I invested here is unlike others such as HUR whereby I missed the boat based on market cap of over 700 million compared to less than 100 million. I have the opportunity to more than double my money in a short space of time. This is not without risk and I could equally lose half. Risk reward compelling enough for me. ZENGA has taken the time to summarise this a lot better than I have. Worth a read if you haven't already
09/5/2017
11:23
zengas: Not too late imo. It has taken two and a half years to get to this point and £83m cash raised buying 4 blocks and significant seismic work. I'm in since near day one. The 3 placings were heavily backed by some top tier blue chip investors. 1) 52.3m shares @ 56p = £29.28m. 2) 61.69m shares @ 38p = £23.44m. 3) 79.835m shares @ 38p (when the share price was 23p) = £30.33m. Earlier investor/institutions added and overall the average cost of all money raised is 43p per share compared to todays price of 41.75p. Director option strike price to be in the money is 114p. With 2.185 billion bls risked recoverable. Average 17.5% Govt share (15-20% re 4 blocks) leaves 1.8 billion bls risked. 5% minority partner stake leaves 1.71 billion bls risked recoverable. With an estimated company and analyst valuation of $4.60/b in the ground the risked recoverable 1.71 billion bls is almost $7.9 billion or just over £6 billion. Factoring in the Chinese success rate of up to 79% attaining 975 mmbo P2 and 4 more discoveries, reported as supposedly being an additional 200 mmbls since mid last year - therefore any farm out for up to 50% and previously talked about figures of $250m is a small price to pay for drill ready acreage, multiple prospects and multiple reservoir targets per well. If we are left post any farmout with a minimum of 50%, the risked recoverable is some £3 billion of target value for SAVP and significantly funded by farmout funds - compared to a valuation of circa £110m now. (There may be an update/increase to above numbers post seismic interpretation).
08/5/2017
15:39
x54v: "The news just keeps on coming for SAVP as today sees the announcement of signed drilling contracts with the Great Wall Drilling Company for a three well programme and a further six options. All systems are go for SAVP now and with a Capital Markets Day on June 7th and a retail event to follow all we really need after that is a spud date. Andrew Knott and his team have prepared meticulously for this scenario and I am sure that the share price will rise appropriately..." Http://www.malcysblog.com/2017/05/oil-price-hurricane-savannah-europa-amerisur-kosmosbp-finally
08/5/2017
09:16
thomasthetank1: Mirabaud Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has confirmed the formal signature of its drilling contract with Great Wall Drilling, the Chinese services company, following the letter of award announced in March. As previously outlined, the contract includes 3 firm wells plus 6 options with drilling anticipated to start by the end of Q2. Following completion of its recent 3D seismic survey over the R3 area, the company should be in a position to confirm well locations at its upcoming Capital Markets Day on 7 June. The company has already stated that it plans to focus the initial three well campaign on the R3 block which contains similar low risk fault block structures to those drilled by CNPC in adjacent acreage (with a success rate of >75%). On a separate note, we would also add that a 5.3m block trade was executed on Friday clearing a line of SAVP stock at 38p which should open the door to another leg up in the share price as drilling draws nearer. RBC International Savannah Petroleum (SAVP.L): Takes Another Step Closer to Drilling Savannah today announced the signing of a formal rig contract with Great Wall Drilling Company Niger for Rig GWDC 215. As announced previously, the contract provides for a programme of three firm wells and includes options for a further six wells. Attention is focused on Block R3 area and we expect management to provide further details on its drilling plans and forward strategy at its 7th June Capital Markets Event in London.
25/4/2017
11:31
wardrv: Recent CNPC discoveries must give SAVP a stronger hand in finding and negotiating with a potential partner, presumably that is why the company have made recent reference to partner introduction. The future looks bright even without a partner but $200 million coming along will have an interesting effect on the share price for sure.
24/3/2017
09:27
zengas: The 38p placing which was done when the actual share price had slipped to 23p, was oversubscribed and prior to that there was a limited free float. I think the fall at that time was due to small sales and little buying/liquidity during that period otherwise how could they get a massive $40m capital raise away at that price ?. "This fund raise was oversubscribed and has been extremely well supported by both existing and new shareholders". Now that a significant drilling campaign nears and also the possibility of a farm in, the free float may be as tight as before. Directors hold 10.18% Standard Life 9.91%, Fidelity 9.69%, Capital 8%, Legal & General 6.61%, Petro Ventures 6.24%, Henderson Global 4.95%. All the above holdings represent 55.58% from the above 7 shareholders. Those are just the main shareholders listed, so how many more institutions are under a notifiable interest ? Given the blue chip list above, it wouldn't surprise me to think there could be a dozen or more possibly holding an un-notifiable few per cent each and possibly a tightening supply of stock ? edit - Morgan Stanley were previously over 5% at 10.75m shares but no longer reportable as they fell below 3% when the 2nd placing happened diluting their percentage holding - so they could still be here (or not). Also Fil Investments International had 7.437m which if still held is under a notifiable 3% interest due to the last placing causing percentage holding changes. Fil Pension Management had a separate holding of 2.295m. If those 3 holdings alone remain intact, that accounts for a further 20.5m shares or 7.5% in relation to tight free float and my thinking on other significant but un-notifiable interests.
15/3/2017
10:13
thomasthetank1: Hi guys - thought the below notes from Panmure Gordon and Stifel might be of interest. Panmure Gordon Savannah Petroleum – Rig contract (SAVP LN, Mkt cap: £81m) – Positive Savannah has contracted a drilling rig for a firm three well programme and six option wells to test its onshore acreage in Niger. The company has signed a Letter of Award with Great Wall Drilling Company for the GWDC Rig 89. The rig is in-country and drilling operations are expected to commence this half. Savannah has contracted long lead items for the campaign. Processing of the 3D seismic is ongoing with fast track results expected by the end of 1Q17. Savanah did not disclose the targets, which are still likely being assessed in light of the seismic data but it had previously identified Damissa, Bushiya and Kunama as potential targets. We understand that it is still the company’s expectation that it will conclude a farm-out before drilling commences. Assuming that is executed it would likely be a material positive for share price from current levels. We are Buyers of Savannah with a 70p/share Target Price. Stifel - Target price of 55p Contracts drilling rig for firm three-well programme Savannah has announced a firm three-well programme for its inaugural drilling campaign in the Agadem Basin of Niger. It's a plus that there are options over six additional well slots, a structure that would enable a potential industry partner to participate in a more expansive campaign. The company sees rig mobilisation within the first half; more detail on the precise drilling targets will follow in the coming months but we see c.150 mmbbls of potential resource adds in a success case. Now with line of sight to drilling, we would expect the shares to perform well.
10/1/2017
18:03
zengas: My current view. 2185 mmbls risked recoverable which is likely to increase after the current 3D programme providing more upside. 95% interest = 2.075 billion bls. Govt share of 15-20% across all 4 licences. Therefore at least 1.71 billion bls net potential (pre any farm out). Page 8 latest broker valuation gives 155p per 126 mmboe net. So using those figures - 1700 mmbls recoverable = £21.00 possible value but needing some modest dilution later down the road for future drilling funds if going it alone. Farm out could bring significant cash impact injection depending on % amount farmed out perhaps $100m-$200m of drilling funds such is the opportunity and high COS spread over a good number of prospects. Should a 50% farmout occur - A 50% stake gives an overall 850 mmbls net or £10.50 target and less future dilution. Eocene targets given as 79% COS and overall average including other stacked targets give 67% COS. You don’t get much better than that. Chinese success was 975 mmbls and up to 80% success rate. If SAVP were to get just 25-35% success rate and on a 50% farm out, share price target has to be worth 260 -360p + impact of any farm value in negating need for future finance re drilling. Any early success from the fully funded programme for the initial wells could forward price in some of the potential huge future upside for additional success - imo over £2 - ie similarly as per Sound Energy at £520m m/cap (no reserves declared other than having 2 well tests and now on an EWT). Savp floated at 58p and last funding at 38p (while the share price was 23p) so that's only a 4 -5 upside for those substantial investors. A further opportunity is this, (in this current year) - ie Broker note mentions that ‘NNPCs exploration arm (FES) on the Nigerian side has received approval for a very large 5,000 km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and a 6 well drilling campaign. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding on its portion of the rift basin. In exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs’. This could yet prove significant value in a success case.
17/11/2016
11:51
thomasthetank1: Hi all - Thought you might like to see Mirabaud's positive take on yesterday's releases. After the close yesterday, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced an upbeat operational update and separate strategic tie-up with the Nigerian Government for operations in neighbouring Nigeria. The timing of the announcement was designed to coincide with an analyst site visit and presentation that took place yesterday in Niger. The Nigerian deal is multi-faceted. Firstly, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with State-owned affiliates NNDC and NNPC to provide technical assistance to their northern exploration arm, FES (Frontier Exploration Services), in the Nigerian portion of the Central African Rift System. FES has received approval for a ~5,000km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and six well drilling campaign in this area (starting in 2017) amidst a Government push to regenerate the north of the country under President Buhari. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding of the Niger portion of the Central African Rift. Meanwhile, in exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back in right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs. Secondly, in parallel with the Nigerian & Niger Governments and other stakeholders, SAVP has established a more profitable export solution for any oil discovered in its Niger licences. This will involve the export of crude (initially via truck, prior to the construction of a pipeline) from the Agadem basin to the Kaduna refinery in north-central Nigeria, located ~800km away (this option was not considered a priority under the former Goodluck Jonathon administration in Nigeria). Construction of the pipeline is expected to funded by a pipeline consortium, likely including the Governments of Nigeria and Niger, SAVP (through a separate infrastructure SPV) and other third parties. This provides an alternative export route and therefore reduces dependence on the CNPC’s sponsored Agadem-Chad export line. It also has two other key advantages for SAVP: firstly it will enable early exports via truck, potentially bringing forward production and cash flow. And secondly, it is economically more attractive. Running a long term oil price of US$60/bb (inflated at 2%) SAVP estimates a breakeven (10% IRR) of US$35/bbl for trucked crude to Kaduna and just US$26/bbl if the crude is piped. We would add that these economics have been independently verified by CGG (SAVP’s reserve auditor) and include significant capital cost savings (maximum cash draw-down to first oil now US$200m vs. US$410m before) achieved through the transfer of capex into opex (the most significant aspect of which is the inclusion of an early production facility using a material amount of rental equipment). Turning to the operation update, SAVP continues to make solid progress on the ground in Niger with 3D acquisition underway in the R3 block and completion seen in February 2017. This ~800km2 dataset will take about four months to process and interpret, providing further definition on the 2D-defined structures in the block (numbering 12 prospects) and potentially unlocking new targets. As planned, drilling is set to commence in mid-H1 2017, most likely on the Damissa prospect in R1 (93 mmbbls of prospective resources) which already has 3D coverage, followed by Bushiya (37 mmbbls) and Kunama (35 mmbbls) in R3. A drilling contract is expected to be sealed in January 2017 and will conclude 3 firm wells and multiple optional slots. Having raised US$40m of equity over the summer the company is funded for up to 5 wells from its own cash resources with the potential to unlock considerable value. Assuming five wells targeting ~200 mmbbls on aggregate, we estimate total unrisked upside of 194p/shr – compared to the current share price of 27.5p/shr – even before factoring in the economic improvements discussed above. Overall, yesterday’s update brings several new elements to SAVP’s story that enhance the investment case in our view. The establishment of the exploration tie-up with FES brings material optionality at low cost, whilst the new export route provides an alternative to the Chad pipeline and enhances project economics – emphasising the attractive breakeven price for Agadem crude (something that can do no harm in ongoing farm-out talks). For the market, meanwhile, confirmation of SAVP’s low risk, multi-well drilling campaign in H1 may be of more importance. Once a drilling contract is signed and the timeline is set in stone we see this as the key catalyst for a re-rating of the shares.
16/10/2015
18:32
dalesman: It’s been a while since I updated my Savannah Petroleum spreadsheets. A lot has happened in the interval, including a rapidly falling oil price and a downgrading of the long-term oil price assumption. As with most oil shares the share price has fallen in line with this fall in POO, many companies have fallen much more than the percentage decline in the oil price. In comparison Savannah has done quite well. Savannah had a recent high of 44p and a low of 28p. Current Share Price is 32.5p at the time of writing this post. We are now entering an exciting period in the life cycle of this company and some interesting times lie ahead starting with the next 3 months. Lets have a look at how the company stands right now. To view the post plus the screenshots of the spreadsheets referred to in this post go to HTTP://dalesmann.com/savp-review/ Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 16.20.34 A screen shot of the Summary Page sets the scene. We have 193m shares in issue following a placing that raised $38m to purchase two further blocks, R3 and R4 in the Agadem Rift Basin in Niger. The company raised this money at a premium to the then current share price The current market cap is 62.7m We have around 8 million in cash and this works out at around 4p per share. A competent persons report on the companies R1 and R2 blocks revealed 1.191 million prospective resources, a significant number. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 17.50.34 The Chinese have achieved an 80% success rate using 3D seismic. Savannah has in addition to 2D and 3D seismic undertaken a Full Tensor Gravimetric Survey carried out by Arkex and this has been integrated into their sub surface model, helping to identify 14 drilling prospects, which they hope to start to drill in Q4 of 2015. They are actively looking for an industry partner willing and able to inject $150m plus into the partnership. Lets look at the position before any farm in. The Summary Page encapsulates all this information. Savannah has a 95% entitlement on blocks R1 and R2 but the Niger Government has the right to a 20% back in so on success Savannah has 95 x 80 / 100 = 76%. Without any farmin partner SAVP has a fully diluted 76% entitlement before the details of the PSC are applied. You can view this figure in column P. The Tax Opex and Capex workbook handles Royalties etc. Without going into detail regarding the working of the Reserves Analysis Sheet the valuation based on 8 million barrels being achieved from the first five wells comes out at £2.41 Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.10.11 based on a $65 long term oil price assumption. If the current oil price is applied then this reduces to £1.27 If the company decides to go it alone and raises £25 m to fund a 5 well drilling program, increasing the shares in issue by say 80m then my target reduces to £1.25 with 273m shares in issue and using the current oil price. All these price target figures include a 25% reduction due to negative sentiment relating to the oil sector as a whole. The management options vest at £1.14 However….. It is quite clear that the preferred way forward is to attract a farmin partner willing and able to inject $150 - $200 million into the venture. I’m assuming that 50% of SAVPs entitlement will be given up to secure this deal so this reduces the entitlement figure from 76% to 38% but increases the cash by say $154m or £100m. This would raise the cash per share from 4p to 56p without raising the shares in issue. The figure would fund 25 plus wells being drilled in the Agadem Basin. Double click on the image to see full size. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.14.03 The resulting target is now £1.15 based on 8 million barrels found from the 5 wells but a cash injection of $150m would allow 25 wells to be funded with say a 40m target. This raises my initial target to £1.27 at the current share price if a long-term oil price assumption of $65 is applied this figure rises to £1.73 (see above) This is, IMHO, an ultra conservative initial valuation. Remember over 1 billion barrels are inferred in the CPR. Effectively this valuation only allows for 40m barrels to be moved into the 2P reserves category. My initial target, giving an upside from the current share price of around 300% is possibly on the cards remembering that when the options vest additional shares will be issued. The Chinese had an 80% success rate when translating prospective resources into 2P reserves. My figures are using a 60% chance of success for an initial 25 well drilling campaign targeting 40m of 2P reserves. This leaves just short of a billion barrels still to be accessed! We need only 4.39 mb of 2P reserves to cover the current share price The nice thing about my software is that it is simple to change the scenarios . Please do your own research and act accordingly and good luck with your investments. Hope that helps Kind regards Phil I hold Dalesmann gives no advice on buying selling and holding this, or any other stock mentioned in his posts. His posts are for education only.
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