Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 39.00p 38.50p 39.50p 39.00p 39.00p 39.00p 10,000 08:00:01
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -5.0 -3.4 - 82.94

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21/4/201722:35◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►337.00

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Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 39p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 37.25p and a 12 week average price of 28.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 40.25p while the 1 year low share price is currently 22.75p.
There are currently 212,675,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 946,476 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £82,943,424.33.
zengas: The 38p placing which was done when the actual share price had slipped to 23p, was oversubscribed and prior to that there was a limited free float. I think the fall at that time was due to small sales and little buying/liquidity during that period otherwise how could they get a massive $40m capital raise away at that price ?. "This fund raise was oversubscribed and has been extremely well supported by both existing and new shareholders". Now that a significant drilling campaign nears and also the possibility of a farm in, the free float may be as tight as before. Directors hold 10.18% Standard Life 9.91%, Fidelity 9.69%, Capital 8%, Legal & General 6.61%, Petro Ventures 6.24%, Henderson Global 4.95%. All the above holdings represent 55.58% from the above 7 shareholders. Those are just the main shareholders listed, so how many more institutions are under a notifiable interest ? Given the blue chip list above, it wouldn't surprise me to think there could be a dozen or more possibly holding an un-notifiable few per cent each and possibly a tightening supply of stock ? edit - Morgan Stanley were previously over 5% at 10.75m shares but no longer reportable as they fell below 3% when the 2nd placing happened diluting their percentage holding - so they could still be here (or not). Also Fil Investments International had 7.437m which if still held is under a notifiable 3% interest due to the last placing causing percentage holding changes. Fil Pension Management had a separate holding of 2.295m. If those 3 holdings alone remain intact, that accounts for a further 20.5m shares or 7.5% in relation to tight free float and my thinking on other significant but un-notifiable interests.
busterbrown2: Zengas - hope its OK to add your LSE post here? --------------------------------------------------------- Thanks TTT for the broker notes. nen - no problem posting that. Just out of interest - if there is a farm out it will be interesting to see what potential back costs we may get paid for considering what was forked out to buy all 4 block interests as well as the extensive seismic. Stifel note expecting a further increase of circa 150 mmbls to previous. So an expected increase of 7% to the 2185 mmbls RISKED recoverable. If so that puts a 7% increase on the old share price target i used WITHOUT a farmout taking it from £21.00 to £22.40 though needing some modest future fundraising along the way. On a 50% farmout that would increase the old price target from £10.50 by 7% to £11.20. Above was using a similar success rate as CNPC (79%) and similar is expected here. My target was 260p - 360p on a 50% farmout with a much lower 25% - 35% success rate so a 7% increase would take that to 280p - 385p + impact of any farm in value. Lots of upside to play for with 3 confirmed wells and an option for another 6 and multiple reservoir targets in each well.
thomasthetank1: Hi guys - thought the below notes from Panmure Gordon and Stifel might be of interest. Panmure Gordon Savannah Petroleum – Rig contract (SAVP LN, Mkt cap: £81m) – Positive Savannah has contracted a drilling rig for a firm three well programme and six option wells to test its onshore acreage in Niger. The company has signed a Letter of Award with Great Wall Drilling Company for the GWDC Rig 89. The rig is in-country and drilling operations are expected to commence this half. Savannah has contracted long lead items for the campaign. Processing of the 3D seismic is ongoing with fast track results expected by the end of 1Q17. Savanah did not disclose the targets, which are still likely being assessed in light of the seismic data but it had previously identified Damissa, Bushiya and Kunama as potential targets. We understand that it is still the company’s expectation that it will conclude a farm-out before drilling commences. Assuming that is executed it would likely be a material positive for share price from current levels. We are Buyers of Savannah with a 70p/share Target Price. Stifel - Target price of 55p Contracts drilling rig for firm three-well programme Savannah has announced a firm three-well programme for its inaugural drilling campaign in the Agadem Basin of Niger. It's a plus that there are options over six additional well slots, a structure that would enable a potential industry partner to participate in a more expansive campaign. The company sees rig mobilisation within the first half; more detail on the precise drilling targets will follow in the coming months but we see c.150 mmbbls of potential resource adds in a success case. Now with line of sight to drilling, we would expect the shares to perform well.
zengas: My current view. 2185 mmbls risked recoverable which is likely to increase after the current 3D programme providing more upside. 95% interest = 2.075 billion bls. Govt share of 15-20% across all 4 licences. Therefore at least 1.71 billion bls net potential (pre any farm out). Page 8 latest broker valuation gives 155p per 126 mmboe net. So using those figures - 1700 mmbls recoverable = £21.00 possible value but needing some modest dilution later down the road for future drilling funds if going it alone. Farm out could bring significant cash impact injection depending on % amount farmed out perhaps $100m-$200m of drilling funds such is the opportunity and high COS spread over a good number of prospects. Should a 50% farmout occur - A 50% stake gives an overall 850 mmbls net or £10.50 target and less future dilution. Eocene targets given as 79% COS and overall average including other stacked targets give 67% COS. You don’t get much better than that. Chinese success was 975 mmbls and up to 80% success rate. If SAVP were to get just 25-35% success rate and on a 50% farm out, share price target has to be worth 260 -360p + impact of any farm value in negating need for future finance re drilling. Any early success from the fully funded programme for the initial wells could forward price in some of the potential huge future upside for additional success - imo over £2 - ie similarly as per Sound Energy at £520m m/cap (no reserves declared other than having 2 well tests and now on an EWT). Savp floated at 58p and last funding at 38p (while the share price was 23p) so that's only a 4 -5 upside for those substantial investors. A further opportunity is this, (in this current year) - ie Broker note mentions that ‘NNPCs exploration arm (FES) on the Nigerian side has received approval for a very large 5,000 km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and a 6 well drilling campaign. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding on its portion of the rift basin. In exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs’. This could yet prove significant value in a success case.
zengas: Stifel weren't involved in the $40m 38p placing 6 months ago (when the share price was 23p), but did act as joint book runners in the $36m 38p placing in July 2015. With the $12m revolving loan facility put in place last month - said to be for amongst other things, potential acquisitions, and now the appointment of Stifel who also specialise in acquisitions/mergers as part of their business, who knows what additionally may be on the cards.
thomasthetank1: Morning all, Upbeat note out by Mirabaud this morning. They have maintained their BUY recommendation on the stock, with a target price of 125p/shr, almost 5x the current share price. Savannah Petroleum – Good vibrations Savannah hosted an analyst site visit to Niger last week, during which it reported on recent operational progress in the Agadem basin and unveiled a strategic tie-up with the Nigerian state affiliates NNPC and NNDC. A busy few months lie ahead, with talks to sign a rig for exploration drilling expected to draw to a close in January, setting the countdown to the company’s first exploration wells. The fully funded, multi well drilling programme will likely kick off with Damissa (93 mmbbls prospective resource), which is expected to spud in late Q1 / early Q2. Meanwhile the ongoing 3D seismic programme should complete early next year, ready for analysis by the end of Q2. Talks are well advanced with regards to a new export route option to a major, under-utilised refinery in northern Nigeria, and even the possibility of trucked early production with attractive economics. The Chad Cameroon route remains on the cards, however alternative options can only help in driving forward a final decision, and, indeed may help galvanise the ongoing farm out negotiations.
thomasthetank1: Hi all - Thought you might like to see Mirabaud's positive take on yesterday's releases. After the close yesterday, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced an upbeat operational update and separate strategic tie-up with the Nigerian Government for operations in neighbouring Nigeria. The timing of the announcement was designed to coincide with an analyst site visit and presentation that took place yesterday in Niger. The Nigerian deal is multi-faceted. Firstly, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with State-owned affiliates NNDC and NNPC to provide technical assistance to their northern exploration arm, FES (Frontier Exploration Services), in the Nigerian portion of the Central African Rift System. FES has received approval for a ~5,000km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and six well drilling campaign in this area (starting in 2017) amidst a Government push to regenerate the north of the country under President Buhari. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding of the Niger portion of the Central African Rift. Meanwhile, in exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back in right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs. Secondly, in parallel with the Nigerian & Niger Governments and other stakeholders, SAVP has established a more profitable export solution for any oil discovered in its Niger licences. This will involve the export of crude (initially via truck, prior to the construction of a pipeline) from the Agadem basin to the Kaduna refinery in north-central Nigeria, located ~800km away (this option was not considered a priority under the former Goodluck Jonathon administration in Nigeria). Construction of the pipeline is expected to funded by a pipeline consortium, likely including the Governments of Nigeria and Niger, SAVP (through a separate infrastructure SPV) and other third parties. This provides an alternative export route and therefore reduces dependence on the CNPC’s sponsored Agadem-Chad export line. It also has two other key advantages for SAVP: firstly it will enable early exports via truck, potentially bringing forward production and cash flow. And secondly, it is economically more attractive. Running a long term oil price of US$60/bb (inflated at 2%) SAVP estimates a breakeven (10% IRR) of US$35/bbl for trucked crude to Kaduna and just US$26/bbl if the crude is piped. We would add that these economics have been independently verified by CGG (SAVP’s reserve auditor) and include significant capital cost savings (maximum cash draw-down to first oil now US$200m vs. US$410m before) achieved through the transfer of capex into opex (the most significant aspect of which is the inclusion of an early production facility using a material amount of rental equipment). Turning to the operation update, SAVP continues to make solid progress on the ground in Niger with 3D acquisition underway in the R3 block and completion seen in February 2017. This ~800km2 dataset will take about four months to process and interpret, providing further definition on the 2D-defined structures in the block (numbering 12 prospects) and potentially unlocking new targets. As planned, drilling is set to commence in mid-H1 2017, most likely on the Damissa prospect in R1 (93 mmbbls of prospective resources) which already has 3D coverage, followed by Bushiya (37 mmbbls) and Kunama (35 mmbbls) in R3. A drilling contract is expected to be sealed in January 2017 and will conclude 3 firm wells and multiple optional slots. Having raised US$40m of equity over the summer the company is funded for up to 5 wells from its own cash resources with the potential to unlock considerable value. Assuming five wells targeting ~200 mmbbls on aggregate, we estimate total unrisked upside of 194p/shr – compared to the current share price of 27.5p/shr – even before factoring in the economic improvements discussed above. Overall, yesterday’s update brings several new elements to SAVP’s story that enhance the investment case in our view. The establishment of the exploration tie-up with FES brings material optionality at low cost, whilst the new export route provides an alternative to the Chad pipeline and enhances project economics – emphasising the attractive breakeven price for Agadem crude (something that can do no harm in ongoing farm-out talks). For the market, meanwhile, confirmation of SAVP’s low risk, multi-well drilling campaign in H1 may be of more importance. Once a drilling contract is signed and the timeline is set in stone we see this as the key catalyst for a re-rating of the shares.
thomasthetank1: Morning all - Thought you might like to see Panmure Gordon's take on this morning's Half Year Results announcement. PANMURE GORDON Savannah Petroleum – Interim results (SAVP LN, Mkt cap: £83m) – Positive Savannah reported a 1H16 net loss of US$4.3m (1H15 loss of US$3.0m), which included a tax charge of US$0.8m (1H15 nil). The loss per share fell to US$0.01 (1H15 US$0.02) reflecting the impact on the share count of the equity raise in 2H15 in connection with the acquisition of the R3/R4 PSC in Niger. Cash operating costs were flat YoY, with Savannah highlighting its cost discipline. Cash used in operations increased to US$5.5m (1H15 US$3.1m) but net investing fell sharply to US$1.6m (1H15 US$5.4m). Cash ended the half at US$0.7m (YE15 US$7.8m), ahead of the successful US$40m placing in July. Savannah advises that it expects the seismic acquisition programme to be completed in early 2017 with processing to commence during acquisition in order to optimise timing. The company expects to start exploration drilling in 2017. Discussions on a farm-out with potential partners is ongoing and Savannah expects any transaction to be announced prior to the commencement of exploration drilling. Savannah is also holding a capital markets event in November. Critical to the buy case for Savannah is that it begins to physically prove the prospectivity of its acreage through the drill bit. The company is now funded to begin that process with or without a farm-out. However, the implication of the company’s statement would suggest that a farm-out announcement is likely ahead of drilling, which suggests that the process is advancing. Our current valuation approach assumes that Savannah is able to achieve a farm-out of 30-50% of its Nigerien acreage position raising US$250m, which supports our 70p/share Target Price. However, should the acreage prove as prospective as currently guided, it is easy to generate value multiples above the current share price. Savannah has a variety of near term catalysts that could drive investor interest; reiterate Buy.
thomasthetank1: Morning all - just seen an updated note on SAVP by Shore Capital. They continue to have a BUY recommendation on the Company and have upgraded Savannah's Risked NAV to 80p/share. Shore Capital Savannah Petroleum – Ramping up activity in Niger In July, Savannah shares came out of their long period of suspension with confirmation of a US$40m equity fundraising. A reverse takeover deal had previously been envisaged and, although this didn’t materialise, Savannah is now positioned to crack on with an active work programme through FY2016/17. Since IPO in FY2014, ground operations had largely been limited to an airborne geophysical survey, although we were impressed by the way in which Savannah tied up the remaining open acreage (with the acquisition of blocks R3/R4) and established a strategic position in Niger. With a significantly expanded lead and prospect inventory and confirmation of a proven new play type, prospective resources have increased significantly. Farm-out options remain on the agenda but Savannah is already positioned to proceed with a 3D seismic survey and drilling of up to six wells; we believe that the latter is likely to be a particularly important share price driver. In the meantime, we upgrade our Risked NAV estimate to 80p/share (from 58p/share pre-suspension) and reiterate our BUY recommendation. Ground operations to commence imminently: With US$40m raised, Savannah is now funded to commence ground operations incorporating a 3D seismic survey and (from early FY2017) drilling of up to six exploration wells. Although a successful farm-out could lead to the work programme being expanded in due course, we already see much improved visibility on the commencement of drilling. Other positive developments: At the time of the placing, Savannah confirmed a significant prospective resource upgrade, enhanced PSC terms (subject to final approval) and a proposed new right of equity participation in CNPC’s planned export pipeline. These developments are positive, although the key takeaway for us was receipt of the funding required to implement an active work programme. Risked NAV upgraded to 80p/share: Funds raised result in some dilution, although this is broadly offset by dollar strength and we have also updated our valuation to reflect higher NPVs per barrel and our latest understanding of the volumetric potential; our Risked NAV estimate consequently increases to 80p/share (compared to 58p/share pre-suspension). Reiterated BUY.
dalesman: It’s been a while since I updated my Savannah Petroleum spreadsheets. A lot has happened in the interval, including a rapidly falling oil price and a downgrading of the long-term oil price assumption. As with most oil shares the share price has fallen in line with this fall in POO, many companies have fallen much more than the percentage decline in the oil price. In comparison Savannah has done quite well. Savannah had a recent high of 44p and a low of 28p. Current Share Price is 32.5p at the time of writing this post. We are now entering an exciting period in the life cycle of this company and some interesting times lie ahead starting with the next 3 months. Lets have a look at how the company stands right now. To view the post plus the screenshots of the spreadsheets referred to in this post go to HTTP:// Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 16.20.34 A screen shot of the Summary Page sets the scene. We have 193m shares in issue following a placing that raised $38m to purchase two further blocks, R3 and R4 in the Agadem Rift Basin in Niger. The company raised this money at a premium to the then current share price The current market cap is 62.7m We have around 8 million in cash and this works out at around 4p per share. A competent persons report on the companies R1 and R2 blocks revealed 1.191 million prospective resources, a significant number. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 17.50.34 The Chinese have achieved an 80% success rate using 3D seismic. Savannah has in addition to 2D and 3D seismic undertaken a Full Tensor Gravimetric Survey carried out by Arkex and this has been integrated into their sub surface model, helping to identify 14 drilling prospects, which they hope to start to drill in Q4 of 2015. They are actively looking for an industry partner willing and able to inject $150m plus into the partnership. Lets look at the position before any farm in. The Summary Page encapsulates all this information. Savannah has a 95% entitlement on blocks R1 and R2 but the Niger Government has the right to a 20% back in so on success Savannah has 95 x 80 / 100 = 76%. Without any farmin partner SAVP has a fully diluted 76% entitlement before the details of the PSC are applied. You can view this figure in column P. The Tax Opex and Capex workbook handles Royalties etc. Without going into detail regarding the working of the Reserves Analysis Sheet the valuation based on 8 million barrels being achieved from the first five wells comes out at £2.41 Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.10.11 based on a $65 long term oil price assumption. If the current oil price is applied then this reduces to £1.27 If the company decides to go it alone and raises £25 m to fund a 5 well drilling program, increasing the shares in issue by say 80m then my target reduces to £1.25 with 273m shares in issue and using the current oil price. All these price target figures include a 25% reduction due to negative sentiment relating to the oil sector as a whole. The management options vest at £1.14 However….. It is quite clear that the preferred way forward is to attract a farmin partner willing and able to inject $150 - $200 million into the venture. I’m assuming that 50% of SAVPs entitlement will be given up to secure this deal so this reduces the entitlement figure from 76% to 38% but increases the cash by say $154m or £100m. This would raise the cash per share from 4p to 56p without raising the shares in issue. The figure would fund 25 plus wells being drilled in the Agadem Basin. Double click on the image to see full size. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.14.03 The resulting target is now £1.15 based on 8 million barrels found from the 5 wells but a cash injection of $150m would allow 25 wells to be funded with say a 40m target. This raises my initial target to £1.27 at the current share price if a long-term oil price assumption of $65 is applied this figure rises to £1.73 (see above) This is, IMHO, an ultra conservative initial valuation. Remember over 1 billion barrels are inferred in the CPR. Effectively this valuation only allows for 40m barrels to be moved into the 2P reserves category. My initial target, giving an upside from the current share price of around 300% is possibly on the cards remembering that when the options vest additional shares will be issued. The Chinese had an 80% success rate when translating prospective resources into 2P reserves. My figures are using a 60% chance of success for an initial 25 well drilling campaign targeting 40m of 2P reserves. This leaves just short of a billion barrels still to be accessed! We need only 4.39 mb of 2P reserves to cover the current share price The nice thing about my software is that it is simple to change the scenarios . Please do your own research and act accordingly and good luck with your investments. Hope that helps Kind regards Phil I hold Dalesmann gives no advice on buying selling and holding this, or any other stock mentioned in his posts. His posts are for education only.
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