Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 34.625p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:40:25
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -6.7 -3.2 - 73.64

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Date Time Title Posts
16/12/201712:05◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►1,797

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Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 34.63p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 34.63p and a 12 week average price of 34.63p.
The 1 year high share price is 44p while the 1 year low share price is currently 26.50p.
There are currently 212,675,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 0 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £73,638,873.52.
zengas: As for the drilling in Niger, The last estimates by CGG came out around 2.2 billion bls of potentially recoverable oil on a risked basis (1.7 billion net). We know the company was after an up to $250m farmout figure for 30-50% giveaway. To get that size of farmout is/was likely in stages depending on the outcome of stage one before committing/releasing more capital to the next phase. On a success case i would still have seen Savp having to raise capital as they would not be carried indefintely beyond X number of wells or infrastructure spend if they had gotten to the successs case. True, if successful they could have gotten cash at a higher price but that's the risk and there's been a few that's been hammered this way - Look at Copl on it's Liberia well and farmin/carry by worlds biggest - Exxon. Well didn't come in and Copl had to come to the market for funds with little in its favour. Savp wanted to retain operatorship in Niger otherwise a new operator could work to their own designs. Maybe this was why a farmin was not forthcoming (maybe it still will) and we may never know but i don't consider it all to be just that straightforward and maybe Savp didn't want to give up too high a percentage. Very worst case was if Savp had say gotten carried for first phase of 3- 5 wells and the results were poor -bad and the farrminee didn't proceed to stage 2 or decide to do anything on stage 2 for another 12 months or so. This would have left Savp in a poor negotiating position as well as struggling for cash if early results had gone against them and unable to move on especially if not in control as operator. Investors who are crying foul now would be gone and looking for the next big play and leaving Savp to it's own devices. But management are right to look to securing and underpinning the company. Let's face it one of the biggest critics (on lse) has said Niger was worth 8p so if it could be driven down to 23p while waiting, one could assume it could go well below 23p if it had failed with nothing else to underpin it and result in as much dilution as there is now as it sought new funds. I don't see anyone who is currently critical, addressing this risk in their thinking. With this deal - i see the share price being underpinned and can grow from the Nigeria assets regardless. Although it's cost us dilution at the outset it's also derisked the company by generating cash flow and intended dividend. Niger is funded. There is ongoing cash flow from this deal not only for future funding but also to bid for/buy more assets. Savp remains in control of Niger and instead of giving up 30-50% - by this strategy they retain a risked recoverable of 500 - 850 mmbls that they would otherwise have signed away to a farminee .That's not to be sniffed at. It also means that with a bigger risked recoverable number to play for, we could get by on having a smaller success rate. Yes the big, big upside will be reduced if it had come in but so many companies get crippled by early poor results when nothing to fall back on. Some can say they were duped or conned as they allege til the cows come home but the bottom line imo is about derisking going forward and building a strong company. What if Niger delivers handsomely and they then farmout at a much bigger premium that they use to buy more production or other assets? That's why at this stage i don't close my mind to the overall potential or upside limitations as things evolve. Speculators and risk takers who may have bought or spreadbet for 1-3 well plays don't come into consideration when management are serious about trying to deliver over the longer term unfortunately.
stephen2010: ALBA currently trading at 0.39p target price 6p making a nice 15 bagger. Please read the following: MARKET CAP PUZZLE ❖ Alba (market cap £8.4m) is in a resources neighbourhood populated with listed companies with much enhanced market capitalisations, such as UKOG.L (£134m) and JAY.L (£172m). With either shared project interests or adjacent tenements to these companies, Alba should trade at a much higher valuation than its current token value. Like Bluejay, Alba owns 100% of its ilmenite project. Direct comparisons with UKOG are also instructive. While both companies own other projects, UKOG’s 49.9% of Horse Hill Developments Limited (HHDL), when compared to Alba’s 18.1% means that Alba has approximately one third of the value of Horse Hill compared to UKOG but only about 7% of the market capitalisation. Once the market recognises these disparities, the room for growth in Alba’s share price is undeniable. VALUATION RATIONALE - Our valuation in this First Equity Limited initiation note uses a risked valuation approach for Alba’s two main projects, at Horse Hill and TBS. The Horse Hill licences are valued using independent published technical data from Schlumberger, Xodus and Nutech on the oil potential of the licences, along with our own assumptions on recovery rates, oil discovery value, resource and development risks factors. From this a risked value of $127m net to Alba on a ‘Base Case’ basis is derived for Horse Hill. Given the similar geology and economic potential of both TBS and Dundas, we have adopted a risked closeology valuation approach, by computing an NPV for Dundas of $223m and then applying a three-tiered risked probability calculation to arrive at a value of $54.7m for TBS. Once Alba announce its JORC resource and exploration target at TBS and Bluejay its Feasibility Study results, this number is likely to be revised upwards very rapidly, possibly up to $200m, representing up to 7p per share in additional shareholder value. We compute a valuation of $185m (£139m) for Alba, equating to 6.0p per share, of which 4.1p is attributed to the stake in Horse Hill, 1.8p for TBS. Given this analysis and wealth of valuation catalysts anticipated across the project portfolio in the coming months, we recommend the shares as a ‘BUY, with a Target Price of 6.0p, representing a potential 15 times plus uplift from the current share price.
taudelta1: Zen, good post and I follow your logic but not sure why you choose 80p for the price the placing "could get away at". Why not 60p, why not 100p, you haven't said. We know, and you have clearly stated, how much is being raised. Now if the price is 80p, you have said 325 min new shares will be needed; therefore if the price is 40p, 650 mln shares will be needed. We just need to establish what the price will be. The answer is that it will be the valuation placed on the existing Niger assets divided by the number of existing shares. On 8 June the market consensus for that figure was 34.625p. What has changed since then.. nothing has changed in Niger, there has been no drilling, no change of government etc .. but the POO has changed. As the shares are suspended there is no transparently visible market consensus for the share price but the co can talk to IIs, advisers etc and then it will have to think out the placing price. The placing price will therefore simply be SAVP's assessment of the value of those Niger assets (adjusted to reflect risk and give investors a return), divided by the no. of existing shares to give a per share figure. Dividing this placing price into the amount of money being raised will determine the number of new shares.
honestmarty: All of these technically estimations of likely share price are making my head hurt. I don't have the finance history of some of the posters. I suspect I'm not the only one. I'm going to simplify it Let's assume we have just one potential investor. Then we use the Dragon's Den method. AK wants 250 million dollars for a certain percentage of the new company. Now it becomes easy to work out the likely offer price. Let's use the 1 billion dollar company valuation figure. Examples I'm a greedy, suspicious investor, I'll pay 250$ million for 50% of the company. We have roughly 250 million shares currently, AK issues another 250 million at $1 each. Offer price is 1$, but now with 500 million shares each is worth 2$ using the 1 billion valuation. Now, I'm a trusting, hopeful kind of investor(Don't laugh), I'll pay 250$ million for 33% of the company. AK has to issue 125 million new shares. This time the offer price is 2$, we will have a total number of shares of 375 million. Using the 1 billion dollar valuation, we get a value per share of $2.65. NICE! Nearly 2 quid in real money Is my way of thinking too simplistic, and if so why?
haideralifool: If they raise £250m at the same as the suspension price, it'll likely create about another 750m new shares. Added to the ones current issued we're looking at 1bn shares. They're proposing a dividend of £12.5m, which at the suspension share price would result in a dividend yield of 3.6%. I guess if they get the share issue away at a higher price then the dilution we suffer will be less and the effective yield for us will be higher. I think news of the dividend is supposed to put a floor under the relisting price as well as make it attractive to some investors.
bushranger: honestmarty- I do agree with that assessment. Though the deal can still be likend to the BHS sale. SE is virtually bankrupt, worthless as a going concern because it cant pay the bills. It needs a large injection of cash which the Chinese will provide along with debt restructure. Like the BHS deal it is not do much about how much will I pay for it but what am I prepared to put in to keep it going. I agree that effectively SAVP could be used as a means to list the new entity on AIM. Ironically that will leave SAVP as a Chinese owned Nigerian oil company listed on AIM! I can see investors lining up for that one :/ I dont see the Chinese paying a huge premium to SAVP. The deal is going to cost and it may or may not prove positive to the share price when assests, risk, debt, dilution is added up.
bushranger: Unfortunately anybody who tries to have a sensible discussion about the SAVP deal is immeadiately denounced as a fraud or deramper if they dont gush about the many multiples of the current frozen share price it will relist at. I am not expecting a big increase in the share price on relist and have resigned myself to a possible drop. It will be the RTO deal (or it falling through) that will determine the price. Anybody who beleives a RTO means instant multiples of a current shareprice is s fool or lier.
zengas: I have a small holding in San Leon (SLE) bought before suspension as a trading punt based on a possible offer by China Great United Petroleum indicated at a 67-76p range. Currently 34p (suspended). In Jan 2016 SLE announced a Nigerian deal to acquire 9.72% of OML-18. This is their main asset and have a few very small/minor assets (with nothing in comparison to Savps Niger blocks). Gross production 54,000 bopd & 55 mmcf/d (total 63,000 boepd). In July 2016 there was 62.33m shares in issue. The deal was classed as a RTO and SLE raised £170m @ 45p issuing 378.4m shares in August 2016. Currently 456.2m shares in issue. OML-18 figures = Gross production 54,000 bopd & 55 mmcf/d = total 63,000 boepd (SLE having 9.72%). Gross 2P reserves = 576 mmbo & 4.72 TCF gas = 1.276 mmboe (125 mmboe -SLE). Gross 2C resources = 203 mmbo & 1.6 TCF gas = 304 mmboe. Total 2P+ 2C gross = 1.58 billion boe ( SLE have 9.72% so approx 154 mboe ). 30th June 2017 = "Receipt of conditional offer for the Company and publication of annual accounts. China Great United has proposed an indicative purchase price of approximately 67-76 pence per share" 7th September 2017. "After the reporting period we announced that we were in discussions with a further three entities, and in June 2017 we announced a conditional offer from China Great United Petroleum (Holding) Limited. Following the end of the 45-day due diligence period San Leon anticipates an update from China Great United Petroleum (Holding) Limited in the near-term". With 456.2m shares an offer of 67-76p would be valuing their 9.72% Nigerian interest at £305m - £346m. Given the size of Seven Energys assets, we might know soon if we are getting a bargain or not. AK reported as seeking Chinese finance by Africa Intelligence. Well documented in recent posts and links about serious Chinese investment particularly into Nigerias gas sector both in fields and pipeline building. Now an indicative offer by a Chinese company for an OML interest. Worth noting that SLEs RTO on the Nigerian deal was done at a 54.5% premium to it's share price at time of suspension (45p v 29.15p pre RTO). 26/8/16 "Conditionally raised approximately £170.3 million (US$221.4 million) through an issue of 378,400,000 new ordinary shares by way of a placing at a placing price of 45 pence per Ordinary Share, a 54.5% premium to the last traded price of 29.125p".
thomasthetank1: Hi all - Thought you might like to see Mirabaud's positive take on yesterday's releases. After the close yesterday, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced an upbeat operational update and separate strategic tie-up with the Nigerian Government for operations in neighbouring Nigeria. The timing of the announcement was designed to coincide with an analyst site visit and presentation that took place yesterday in Niger. The Nigerian deal is multi-faceted. Firstly, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with State-owned affiliates NNDC and NNPC to provide technical assistance to their northern exploration arm, FES (Frontier Exploration Services), in the Nigerian portion of the Central African Rift System. FES has received approval for a ~5,000km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and six well drilling campaign in this area (starting in 2017) amidst a Government push to regenerate the north of the country under President Buhari. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding of the Niger portion of the Central African Rift. Meanwhile, in exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back in right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs. Secondly, in parallel with the Nigerian & Niger Governments and other stakeholders, SAVP has established a more profitable export solution for any oil discovered in its Niger licences. This will involve the export of crude (initially via truck, prior to the construction of a pipeline) from the Agadem basin to the Kaduna refinery in north-central Nigeria, located ~800km away (this option was not considered a priority under the former Goodluck Jonathon administration in Nigeria). Construction of the pipeline is expected to funded by a pipeline consortium, likely including the Governments of Nigeria and Niger, SAVP (through a separate infrastructure SPV) and other third parties. This provides an alternative export route and therefore reduces dependence on the CNPC’s sponsored Agadem-Chad export line. It also has two other key advantages for SAVP: firstly it will enable early exports via truck, potentially bringing forward production and cash flow. And secondly, it is economically more attractive. Running a long term oil price of US$60/bb (inflated at 2%) SAVP estimates a breakeven (10% IRR) of US$35/bbl for trucked crude to Kaduna and just US$26/bbl if the crude is piped. We would add that these economics have been independently verified by CGG (SAVP’s reserve auditor) and include significant capital cost savings (maximum cash draw-down to first oil now US$200m vs. US$410m before) achieved through the transfer of capex into opex (the most significant aspect of which is the inclusion of an early production facility using a material amount of rental equipment). Turning to the operation update, SAVP continues to make solid progress on the ground in Niger with 3D acquisition underway in the R3 block and completion seen in February 2017. This ~800km2 dataset will take about four months to process and interpret, providing further definition on the 2D-defined structures in the block (numbering 12 prospects) and potentially unlocking new targets. As planned, drilling is set to commence in mid-H1 2017, most likely on the Damissa prospect in R1 (93 mmbbls of prospective resources) which already has 3D coverage, followed by Bushiya (37 mmbbls) and Kunama (35 mmbbls) in R3. A drilling contract is expected to be sealed in January 2017 and will conclude 3 firm wells and multiple optional slots. Having raised US$40m of equity over the summer the company is funded for up to 5 wells from its own cash resources with the potential to unlock considerable value. Assuming five wells targeting ~200 mmbbls on aggregate, we estimate total unrisked upside of 194p/shr – compared to the current share price of 27.5p/shr – even before factoring in the economic improvements discussed above. Overall, yesterday’s update brings several new elements to SAVP’s story that enhance the investment case in our view. The establishment of the exploration tie-up with FES brings material optionality at low cost, whilst the new export route provides an alternative to the Chad pipeline and enhances project economics – emphasising the attractive breakeven price for Agadem crude (something that can do no harm in ongoing farm-out talks). For the market, meanwhile, confirmation of SAVP’s low risk, multi-well drilling campaign in H1 may be of more importance. Once a drilling contract is signed and the timeline is set in stone we see this as the key catalyst for a re-rating of the shares.
dalesman: It’s been a while since I updated my Savannah Petroleum spreadsheets. A lot has happened in the interval, including a rapidly falling oil price and a downgrading of the long-term oil price assumption. As with most oil shares the share price has fallen in line with this fall in POO, many companies have fallen much more than the percentage decline in the oil price. In comparison Savannah has done quite well. Savannah had a recent high of 44p and a low of 28p. Current Share Price is 32.5p at the time of writing this post. We are now entering an exciting period in the life cycle of this company and some interesting times lie ahead starting with the next 3 months. Lets have a look at how the company stands right now. To view the post plus the screenshots of the spreadsheets referred to in this post go to HTTP:// Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 16.20.34 A screen shot of the Summary Page sets the scene. We have 193m shares in issue following a placing that raised $38m to purchase two further blocks, R3 and R4 in the Agadem Rift Basin in Niger. The company raised this money at a premium to the then current share price The current market cap is 62.7m We have around 8 million in cash and this works out at around 4p per share. A competent persons report on the companies R1 and R2 blocks revealed 1.191 million prospective resources, a significant number. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 17.50.34 The Chinese have achieved an 80% success rate using 3D seismic. Savannah has in addition to 2D and 3D seismic undertaken a Full Tensor Gravimetric Survey carried out by Arkex and this has been integrated into their sub surface model, helping to identify 14 drilling prospects, which they hope to start to drill in Q4 of 2015. They are actively looking for an industry partner willing and able to inject $150m plus into the partnership. Lets look at the position before any farm in. The Summary Page encapsulates all this information. Savannah has a 95% entitlement on blocks R1 and R2 but the Niger Government has the right to a 20% back in so on success Savannah has 95 x 80 / 100 = 76%. Without any farmin partner SAVP has a fully diluted 76% entitlement before the details of the PSC are applied. You can view this figure in column P. The Tax Opex and Capex workbook handles Royalties etc. Without going into detail regarding the working of the Reserves Analysis Sheet the valuation based on 8 million barrels being achieved from the first five wells comes out at £2.41 Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.10.11 based on a $65 long term oil price assumption. If the current oil price is applied then this reduces to £1.27 If the company decides to go it alone and raises £25 m to fund a 5 well drilling program, increasing the shares in issue by say 80m then my target reduces to £1.25 with 273m shares in issue and using the current oil price. All these price target figures include a 25% reduction due to negative sentiment relating to the oil sector as a whole. The management options vest at £1.14 However….. It is quite clear that the preferred way forward is to attract a farmin partner willing and able to inject $150 - $200 million into the venture. I’m assuming that 50% of SAVPs entitlement will be given up to secure this deal so this reduces the entitlement figure from 76% to 38% but increases the cash by say $154m or £100m. This would raise the cash per share from 4p to 56p without raising the shares in issue. The figure would fund 25 plus wells being drilled in the Agadem Basin. Double click on the image to see full size. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.14.03 The resulting target is now £1.15 based on 8 million barrels found from the 5 wells but a cash injection of $150m would allow 25 wells to be funded with say a 40m target. This raises my initial target to £1.27 at the current share price if a long-term oil price assumption of $65 is applied this figure rises to £1.73 (see above) This is, IMHO, an ultra conservative initial valuation. Remember over 1 billion barrels are inferred in the CPR. Effectively this valuation only allows for 40m barrels to be moved into the 2P reserves category. My initial target, giving an upside from the current share price of around 300% is possibly on the cards remembering that when the options vest additional shares will be issued. The Chinese had an 80% success rate when translating prospective resources into 2P reserves. My figures are using a 60% chance of success for an initial 25 well drilling campaign targeting 40m of 2P reserves. This leaves just short of a billion barrels still to be accessed! We need only 4.39 mb of 2P reserves to cover the current share price The nice thing about my software is that it is simple to change the scenarios . Please do your own research and act accordingly and good luck with your investments. Hope that helps Kind regards Phil I hold Dalesmann gives no advice on buying selling and holding this, or any other stock mentioned in his posts. His posts are for education only.
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