Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Savannah Petrol LSE:SAVP London Ordinary Share GB00BP41S218 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 29.50p 29.00p 30.00p 29.50p 29.50p 29.50p 12,359.00 07:30:58
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 0.0 -5.0 -3.4 - 62.74

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25/11/201610:12◄ SAVANNAH PETROLEUM PLC ►171.00

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Savannah Petrol Daily Update: Savannah Petrol is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SAVP. The last closing price for Savannah Petrol was 29.50p.
Savannah Petrol has a 4 week average price of 27.76p and a 12 week average price of 28.90p.
The 1 year high share price is 37.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 22.75p.
There are currently 212,675,447 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 232,847 shares. The market capitalisation of Savannah Petrol is £62,739,256.87.
thomasthetank1: Morning all, Upbeat note out by Mirabaud this morning. They have maintained their BUY recommendation on the stock, with a target price of 125p/shr, almost 5x the current share price. Savannah Petroleum – Good vibrations Savannah hosted an analyst site visit to Niger last week, during which it reported on recent operational progress in the Agadem basin and unveiled a strategic tie-up with the Nigerian state affiliates NNPC and NNDC. A busy few months lie ahead, with talks to sign a rig for exploration drilling expected to draw to a close in January, setting the countdown to the company’s first exploration wells. The fully funded, multi well drilling programme will likely kick off with Damissa (93 mmbbls prospective resource), which is expected to spud in late Q1 / early Q2. Meanwhile the ongoing 3D seismic programme should complete early next year, ready for analysis by the end of Q2. Talks are well advanced with regards to a new export route option to a major, under-utilised refinery in northern Nigeria, and even the possibility of trucked early production with attractive economics. The Chad Cameroon route remains on the cards, however alternative options can only help in driving forward a final decision, and, indeed may help galvanise the ongoing farm out negotiations.
thomasthetank1: Hi all - Thought you might like to see Mirabaud's positive take on yesterday's releases. After the close yesterday, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) announced an upbeat operational update and separate strategic tie-up with the Nigerian Government for operations in neighbouring Nigeria. The timing of the announcement was designed to coincide with an analyst site visit and presentation that took place yesterday in Niger. The Nigerian deal is multi-faceted. Firstly, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed with State-owned affiliates NNDC and NNPC to provide technical assistance to their northern exploration arm, FES (Frontier Exploration Services), in the Nigerian portion of the Central African Rift System. FES has received approval for a ~5,000km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and six well drilling campaign in this area (starting in 2017) amidst a Government push to regenerate the north of the country under President Buhari. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding of the Niger portion of the Central African Rift. Meanwhile, in exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back in right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs. Secondly, in parallel with the Nigerian & Niger Governments and other stakeholders, SAVP has established a more profitable export solution for any oil discovered in its Niger licences. This will involve the export of crude (initially via truck, prior to the construction of a pipeline) from the Agadem basin to the Kaduna refinery in north-central Nigeria, located ~800km away (this option was not considered a priority under the former Goodluck Jonathon administration in Nigeria). Construction of the pipeline is expected to funded by a pipeline consortium, likely including the Governments of Nigeria and Niger, SAVP (through a separate infrastructure SPV) and other third parties. This provides an alternative export route and therefore reduces dependence on the CNPC’s sponsored Agadem-Chad export line. It also has two other key advantages for SAVP: firstly it will enable early exports via truck, potentially bringing forward production and cash flow. And secondly, it is economically more attractive. Running a long term oil price of US$60/bb (inflated at 2%) SAVP estimates a breakeven (10% IRR) of US$35/bbl for trucked crude to Kaduna and just US$26/bbl if the crude is piped. We would add that these economics have been independently verified by CGG (SAVP’s reserve auditor) and include significant capital cost savings (maximum cash draw-down to first oil now US$200m vs. US$410m before) achieved through the transfer of capex into opex (the most significant aspect of which is the inclusion of an early production facility using a material amount of rental equipment). Turning to the operation update, SAVP continues to make solid progress on the ground in Niger with 3D acquisition underway in the R3 block and completion seen in February 2017. This ~800km2 dataset will take about four months to process and interpret, providing further definition on the 2D-defined structures in the block (numbering 12 prospects) and potentially unlocking new targets. As planned, drilling is set to commence in mid-H1 2017, most likely on the Damissa prospect in R1 (93 mmbbls of prospective resources) which already has 3D coverage, followed by Bushiya (37 mmbbls) and Kunama (35 mmbbls) in R3. A drilling contract is expected to be sealed in January 2017 and will conclude 3 firm wells and multiple optional slots. Having raised US$40m of equity over the summer the company is funded for up to 5 wells from its own cash resources with the potential to unlock considerable value. Assuming five wells targeting ~200 mmbbls on aggregate, we estimate total unrisked upside of 194p/shr – compared to the current share price of 27.5p/shr – even before factoring in the economic improvements discussed above. Overall, yesterday’s update brings several new elements to SAVP’s story that enhance the investment case in our view. The establishment of the exploration tie-up with FES brings material optionality at low cost, whilst the new export route provides an alternative to the Chad pipeline and enhances project economics – emphasising the attractive breakeven price for Agadem crude (something that can do no harm in ongoing farm-out talks). For the market, meanwhile, confirmation of SAVP’s low risk, multi-well drilling campaign in H1 may be of more importance. Once a drilling contract is signed and the timeline is set in stone we see this as the key catalyst for a re-rating of the shares.
thomasthetank1: Morning all - Thought you might like to see Panmure Gordon's take on this morning's Half Year Results announcement. PANMURE GORDON Savannah Petroleum – Interim results (SAVP LN, Mkt cap: £83m) – Positive Savannah reported a 1H16 net loss of US$4.3m (1H15 loss of US$3.0m), which included a tax charge of US$0.8m (1H15 nil). The loss per share fell to US$0.01 (1H15 US$0.02) reflecting the impact on the share count of the equity raise in 2H15 in connection with the acquisition of the R3/R4 PSC in Niger. Cash operating costs were flat YoY, with Savannah highlighting its cost discipline. Cash used in operations increased to US$5.5m (1H15 US$3.1m) but net investing fell sharply to US$1.6m (1H15 US$5.4m). Cash ended the half at US$0.7m (YE15 US$7.8m), ahead of the successful US$40m placing in July. Savannah advises that it expects the seismic acquisition programme to be completed in early 2017 with processing to commence during acquisition in order to optimise timing. The company expects to start exploration drilling in 2017. Discussions on a farm-out with potential partners is ongoing and Savannah expects any transaction to be announced prior to the commencement of exploration drilling. Savannah is also holding a capital markets event in November. Critical to the buy case for Savannah is that it begins to physically prove the prospectivity of its acreage through the drill bit. The company is now funded to begin that process with or without a farm-out. However, the implication of the company’s statement would suggest that a farm-out announcement is likely ahead of drilling, which suggests that the process is advancing. Our current valuation approach assumes that Savannah is able to achieve a farm-out of 30-50% of its Nigerien acreage position raising US$250m, which supports our 70p/share Target Price. However, should the acreage prove as prospective as currently guided, it is easy to generate value multiples above the current share price. Savannah has a variety of near term catalysts that could drive investor interest; reiterate Buy.
zengas: Div, my view hasn't altered. We have 100% as it stands (rather than say 70% or 50%) and capital to drill so not at the mercy of waiting for a farmin partner to get the drilling underway. They've now got $40m irrespective of a farmout and will be drilling come Q1. CNPC are there and already produce oil and a pipeline agreed. Savp used their airfield and are using their seismic subsidiary. There was absolutely no infrastructure never mind industry re Coves offshore deepwater gas discovery off Mozambique that was proved up and sold in 2012 (first gas 2018 ?). To get institutions putting up $40m at 38p when the share price was 23p last month is a significant vote of confidence that they weren't pushed into a big discounted placing.
thomasthetank1: Morning all - just seen an updated note on SAVP by Shore Capital. They continue to have a BUY recommendation on the Company and have upgraded Savannah's Risked NAV to 80p/share. Shore Capital Savannah Petroleum – Ramping up activity in Niger In July, Savannah shares came out of their long period of suspension with confirmation of a US$40m equity fundraising. A reverse takeover deal had previously been envisaged and, although this didn’t materialise, Savannah is now positioned to crack on with an active work programme through FY2016/17. Since IPO in FY2014, ground operations had largely been limited to an airborne geophysical survey, although we were impressed by the way in which Savannah tied up the remaining open acreage (with the acquisition of blocks R3/R4) and established a strategic position in Niger. With a significantly expanded lead and prospect inventory and confirmation of a proven new play type, prospective resources have increased significantly. Farm-out options remain on the agenda but Savannah is already positioned to proceed with a 3D seismic survey and drilling of up to six wells; we believe that the latter is likely to be a particularly important share price driver. In the meantime, we upgrade our Risked NAV estimate to 80p/share (from 58p/share pre-suspension) and reiterate our BUY recommendation. Ground operations to commence imminently: With US$40m raised, Savannah is now funded to commence ground operations incorporating a 3D seismic survey and (from early FY2017) drilling of up to six exploration wells. Although a successful farm-out could lead to the work programme being expanded in due course, we already see much improved visibility on the commencement of drilling. Other positive developments: At the time of the placing, Savannah confirmed a significant prospective resource upgrade, enhanced PSC terms (subject to final approval) and a proposed new right of equity participation in CNPC’s planned export pipeline. These developments are positive, although the key takeaway for us was receipt of the funding required to implement an active work programme. Risked NAV upgraded to 80p/share: Funds raised result in some dilution, although this is broadly offset by dollar strength and we have also updated our valuation to reflect higher NPVs per barrel and our latest understanding of the volumetric potential; our Risked NAV estimate consequently increases to 80p/share (compared to 58p/share pre-suspension). Reiterated BUY.
thomasthetank1: Morning all - just clocked a positive article on SAVP in this week's edition of Investors Chronicle. The article looks at 27 London listed E&P's, with Savannah being ranked number one. Bubbling Away By Alex Newman 1. Throughout the oil price fall, Savannah Petroleum (SAVP) has maintained an enviable track record of attracting funding to develop its interests in the Agadem rift basin in southeast Niger. Most recently, that included a $40m (GBP30m) fundraising at a 45 per cent premium to the share price, on the back of a near-doubling in the company's resource base to 2.2bn barrels. The money will be used to recommence 3D seismic studies ahead of a drilling campaign in 2017, before which point there is a "high possibility" of a partner coming on board, according to chief executive Andrew Knott.
thomasthetank1: Panmure Gordon - Making it Happen BUY recommendation with a Target Price of 70p. Following shareholder approval of its successful US$40m raise, Savannah is now funded to start an initial exploration programme, including drilling, that should help validate the inherent value in its Nigerien acreage position. CGG has now confirmed 2bnbbl plus risked resource potential. Savannah continues to target a farm-out and we believe it is credible to anticipate a deal before year end, benefitting from potential favourable changes to Savannah's terms. While we find it easy to generate value multiples above the current share price, we have simply adjusted our former valuation for the impact of the dilution from the placing and our revised macro forecasts. On that basis we set a target price of 70p per share (from 75p) and reinstate coverage with a Buy recommendation. Successful US$40m raise. Following the shareholder vote yesterday, Savannah has now successfully raised US$40m at a 61% premium above the price at which the stock was suspended in January and in line with the raise last year which secured the R3/R4 contract. Funds initial exploration programme. Savannah is now funded for an initial exploration programme which we expect to include new 3D seismic focusing on the R3 licence this year, together with an initial drilling programme next year, whether or not farm-out terms have been concluded. Farm-out likely. Savannah continues to pursue farm-out terms and is in discussion with a number of well capitalized counter-parties. We believe it is credible that the company will be able to conclude terms, at least equivalent to those it previously sought.
dalesman: It’s been a while since I updated my Savannah Petroleum spreadsheets. A lot has happened in the interval, including a rapidly falling oil price and a downgrading of the long-term oil price assumption. As with most oil shares the share price has fallen in line with this fall in POO, many companies have fallen much more than the percentage decline in the oil price. In comparison Savannah has done quite well. Savannah had a recent high of 44p and a low of 28p. Current Share Price is 32.5p at the time of writing this post. We are now entering an exciting period in the life cycle of this company and some interesting times lie ahead starting with the next 3 months. Lets have a look at how the company stands right now. To view the post plus the screenshots of the spreadsheets referred to in this post go to HTTP:// Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 16.20.34 A screen shot of the Summary Page sets the scene. We have 193m shares in issue following a placing that raised $38m to purchase two further blocks, R3 and R4 in the Agadem Rift Basin in Niger. The company raised this money at a premium to the then current share price The current market cap is 62.7m We have around 8 million in cash and this works out at around 4p per share. A competent persons report on the companies R1 and R2 blocks revealed 1.191 million prospective resources, a significant number. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 17.50.34 The Chinese have achieved an 80% success rate using 3D seismic. Savannah has in addition to 2D and 3D seismic undertaken a Full Tensor Gravimetric Survey carried out by Arkex and this has been integrated into their sub surface model, helping to identify 14 drilling prospects, which they hope to start to drill in Q4 of 2015. They are actively looking for an industry partner willing and able to inject $150m plus into the partnership. Lets look at the position before any farm in. The Summary Page encapsulates all this information. Savannah has a 95% entitlement on blocks R1 and R2 but the Niger Government has the right to a 20% back in so on success Savannah has 95 x 80 / 100 = 76%. Without any farmin partner SAVP has a fully diluted 76% entitlement before the details of the PSC are applied. You can view this figure in column P. The Tax Opex and Capex workbook handles Royalties etc. Without going into detail regarding the working of the Reserves Analysis Sheet the valuation based on 8 million barrels being achieved from the first five wells comes out at £2.41 Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.10.11 based on a $65 long term oil price assumption. If the current oil price is applied then this reduces to £1.27 If the company decides to go it alone and raises £25 m to fund a 5 well drilling program, increasing the shares in issue by say 80m then my target reduces to £1.25 with 273m shares in issue and using the current oil price. All these price target figures include a 25% reduction due to negative sentiment relating to the oil sector as a whole. The management options vest at £1.14 However….. It is quite clear that the preferred way forward is to attract a farmin partner willing and able to inject $150 - $200 million into the venture. I’m assuming that 50% of SAVPs entitlement will be given up to secure this deal so this reduces the entitlement figure from 76% to 38% but increases the cash by say $154m or £100m. This would raise the cash per share from 4p to 56p without raising the shares in issue. The figure would fund 25 plus wells being drilled in the Agadem Basin. Double click on the image to see full size. Screen Shot 2015-10-16 at 18.14.03 The resulting target is now £1.15 based on 8 million barrels found from the 5 wells but a cash injection of $150m would allow 25 wells to be funded with say a 40m target. This raises my initial target to £1.27 at the current share price if a long-term oil price assumption of $65 is applied this figure rises to £1.73 (see above) This is, IMHO, an ultra conservative initial valuation. Remember over 1 billion barrels are inferred in the CPR. Effectively this valuation only allows for 40m barrels to be moved into the 2P reserves category. My initial target, giving an upside from the current share price of around 300% is possibly on the cards remembering that when the options vest additional shares will be issued. The Chinese had an 80% success rate when translating prospective resources into 2P reserves. My figures are using a 60% chance of success for an initial 25 well drilling campaign targeting 40m of 2P reserves. This leaves just short of a billion barrels still to be accessed! We need only 4.39 mb of 2P reserves to cover the current share price The nice thing about my software is that it is simple to change the scenarios . Please do your own research and act accordingly and good luck with your investments. Hope that helps Kind regards Phil I hold Dalesmann gives no advice on buying selling and holding this, or any other stock mentioned in his posts. His posts are for education only.
zengas: This deal makes me beleive a farmout for R1/R2 is close. You would hardly raise capital/dilute and take on another substantially priced asset with little in the pot for starting a major drilling campaign. Yet - They have received all drill and seismic permiting - "There are no further authorisations required to enable Savannah to acquire seismic and drill wells over the entire R1/R2 area for the extent of its Exclusive Exploration Authorisation". Also they have SIGNED the well engineering design and seismic contracts for R1/ R2. R1/R2 was awarded on 4th July last year so we are into the 13 month with just under 3 years remaining and a likely 1 year extension. Drilling would need to start in Q4 (next 3-4 months) as this cuts the available timescale to just 2 & 3 quarter years before any extension. The CEO said an intensive drilling campaigm and reckons $150m is acheivable from a farm out. $100m for drilling (about 20 wells given that some will be deeper than others because previously it was just the eocene) and $50m for seismic and possible back costs - that might therefore enable them to spend some of that to satisfy 3D acqusition on the R3/R4 permit and have it ready for a seperate future farmout deal (or possibly include it now as part of an expanded deal ?). If we get some of the 81% high chance of success on R1 drilling, we'd be able to book reserves, attain a much higher share price and do a bond raise for say $200m for our 50% share of the next drilling phase. We would need roughly to drill a total of 100 wells to target all the reported potential and acheive that outright £9.60 ultimate mid case/50% farmout share price i used 2 days ago. 100 wells would be acheivable on a 3 year basis with 3 - 5 rigs. (There are 3 warm stacked available now). CNPC are apparently now using 6 after achieving 975 mmbo P2 in the last 5 years. For SAVP it will be a drilling race aginst the clock. With the new shares in issue and in my post 2 days ago of a £9.60 RISKED share price in that drilling time frame - my share price target REDUCES to £6.57 RISKED - subject to that level of success being attained in line with those provided from the CGG update to Savannah. Nothing attributed as yet to R3/R4 but i expect that to replace the upside potential in the coming months.
zengas: Dalesman Re your post over on L S E and a couple of points - should be over 800 million bls P2 (not 800,000 as you've written) and that was as of 1 year ago when the IPO and CPR was prepared. CNPC have added to this number with additional discoveries. Eocene is a 1300m -1800m target zone range so they will be circa 2,000m wells to encompass that but still within 25 days and under $5m and then to take in any deeper targets/pro-rata costs. Re holdings - Directors hold 19-20% the rest is institutions in that 52% you quote (it's actually reported as 56.1% for the top 6 shareholdings including the CEO). One point is you've posted that they have R1 315m bls and R2 257m 'contingent' resources (Total risked = 572 mmbls). These aren't contingent as no discovery is yet made but the COS is rated very high at 81% on R1 and 60% on R2. The figure is correct but they are 'risked' prospective resources arrived at from last years CPR and the higher 819 mmbls 'unrisked' figure. What we are seeing now in the early resource upgrade as mentioned in the broker note released recently is that so far it is emerging that there is over 3 times more oil potential per km2 than prepared for the original CPR. Well flow rates from the Eocence from up to 5 reservoir intervals (so fairly prolific in terms of numerous reservoir intervals and not just one) are 1,000 - 3,000 bopd/well. The Chinese have made deeper discoveries but prior to this they were concentrating on the Eocene bonanza due to low risk, near 80% discovery rate, cost and the ability to add some 820 mmbo of P2 reserves at a phenomenal rate. The deeper targets have thrown up similar API oil and similar flow rates to the Eocene. That 820 mmbo P2 figure was at the time of last years CPR and apparently discoveries have continued to be made. I'm expecting circa 1 billion barrel recoverable potential to emerge here (ie twice that of last years CPR) across SAVPs R1/R2 and at the very minimum a 25% success rate even though 60% (R2) and 81% (R1) is estimated by the CPR. The CPR has only dealt with the expected Eocence potential and has not done any work on the deeper potential to which the Chinese have made adjacent discoveries. I put a post above here that they had sent people out in May this year to negotiate for the R3/R4 blocks so these guys are obviously very confident and the rumoured (it was published in a press article - above also) was for seeking a $170m - $200m farmout. Not out of the question considering Glencore 2 years earlier farmed in for 25% - 33% at a cost of $300m in Caracal Energy in neighbouring Chad with virtually, if not identical terms as those here in Niger. Glencore then bought Caracal out mid last year for $1.44 billion and they had just under 90 mmbls P2 reserves (equates to $16/b). I'm looking for something similar here along those lines and in this current environment, if we get a similar 90 mmbls net of P2 and at $8/b the share price target would be over £3. (90m bls @ $8/b = $720m @ ex rate £1=$1.6 and 131.34m shares = £3.42) Even allowing another future 43.56m shares to 175m shares = target of £2.57. If we get a sizeable farm-in along the rumoured $170m - $200m would be phenomenal and considering that under $5m/well to the Eocence - $100m would target 20 wells to that depth and 200 mmbls or 10-15 wells at a greater resource number encompassing the deeper targets. Considering that the 'risked' play is for 573 mmbls based on 81% and 60% success rate from 819 mmbls total Eocence oil ONLY (at time of last years CPR) - a 50% farmout would reduce that to a rounded 400 mmbls unrisked and at a 60-81% success rate give SAVP some 280 mmbls P2 net potential (AND to reiterate, this is from the Eocence ONLY). If we were to reduce the 81% and 60% success rate to 25% - we would get 100 mmbls net and in my belief a share price target that i've highlighted above in the 90 mmbls scenario plus 10%. Obviously if the success rate matches that given in the CPR then one could be looking at 3 times the net P2 and 3 times the £3.42 or £2.57 target above depending on any future dilution (ie over 750p potential and this from just those Eocene numbers). The greater the amount received for any farm-in, the better as this could eradicate or limit any early dilution. 1) In the above i've used $8/b P2 (Caracal take out was $16/b mid 2014 and only one and a half years after their partner farmed in). 2) I've assumed 50% maximum farmout. (Glencore farm in to Caracal was for $300m and 25% - 33% across their licence interests). If SAVP farm out less than 50% then the economics improve by about 22% for every 10% not farmed out below my 50% max farm-out expectation. These blocks are considered pretty unique so i would think having to give away more than 50% is very slim (though not guaranteed). 3) The CPR figures above relate only to the Eocene play and there have been deeper discoveries already found in the basin and by the CNPC on the adjacent acrerage. 4) The recent resource upgrade in May was stated by the analyst as showing, for now initially some 3 times more oil resource per Km2 than that in last years CPR. 5) Stock is tighly held (131.34m in issue) and this in my view is representative of the belief in and quality of the licences. According to their investor page - Top 6 shareholders at 4.78% cut-off hold 56.1% = 73.6m shares. Another 30.81% not in public hands = 40.459m shares. (total 114.059m shares) An approx public free float therefore of around 17m shares (until any update says otherwise). As regards your 10 bagger potential (floated at 56p) now 40p - success as a 10 bagger from here at 40p would only put this as a £525m m/cap company and that is not an extravagant valuation. I've used worst case target scenario on a £3.42/£2.57 basis (and on any future dilution) in getting a £450m valuation. SAVPs chairman sold Nautical Petroleum for £414m in late 2012. Glencore paid $1.44b for Caracal (over £800m). Cove as a pure gas discovery/undeveloped went for £1.22 billion (in less than 3 years from ipo) Cove fell from 25p - 17p and sold for 240p. All those examples were backed for their potential and just as at the outset no one new how well those examples would ultimately perform. SAVP will be one or it won't but with such a high COS rating by one of the top geological and reservoir consultants that's been around for some 50 years the potential for even modest success could make a 10 bagger very possible. Obviously my own thoughts for why i like the potential here and anyone should do his/her own research accordingly. (PS I don't like the format over there and this post exceeds characters limit).
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