Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 24/1/2017 10:37

Looking forward to commencement of drilling. Very quiet here meanwhile with some range trading going on.

[maverick247] 23/1/2017 16:53

Dorset ARS is quite possibly the aim stock of 2017.Ive got some in here too

[greatfull dead] 21/1/2017 12:01

Steel,

I have started my research on SAVP.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend,
GD

[buffythebuffoon] 19/1/2017 10:20

Loading up first then seeking advice is an interesting way to invest...

Buffy

[dorset64] 19/1/2017 10:03

Steel watch, off topic for SAVP, but message me your thoughts on ARS if you've time or know of them. I've recently been loading up there as, like SAVP feel theres a great future ahead for both.

[steelwatch] 18/1/2017 17:38

buffy - wouldn't call myself a sophisticat. Alley cat maybe :•)

[buffythebuffoon] 18/1/2017 14:53

Steel, you are obviously a more sophisticated investor than me. I was looking at the big ball we are sitting on for answers.

Buffy

[steelwatch] 18/1/2017 14:04

Cheers Dorset. A wee bit older and still none the wiser, but hoping the planets lining up here in the coming months with luck.

[dorset64] 18/1/2017 13:59

Welcome aboard steelwatch, trust ur well fella

[steelwatch] 18/1/2017 13:45

Hold a few here now as well Dorset.

[dorset64] 18/1/2017 12:18

Ive added a few extra here & in ARS with thanks to MATD.

[divmad] 11/1/2017 09:41

We should all be much happier in a couple of quarters' time. But that's just the start here.

[maverick247] 11/1/2017 08:09

Bought in here for upcoming campaign looks good

[ngms27] 11/1/2017 07:46

Divmad, I already have a position here and anticipate an opportunity to shift much more in a few month time.

[divmad] 11/1/2017 07:29

Why? You've had six months of flat/weakness to establish a good position here.

[ngms27] 10/1/2017 18:29

Shush I want this to be off the radar for another three months ;)

Certainly plenty of multi-bag potential :)

[zengas] 10/1/2017 18:03

My current view.

2185 mmbls risked recoverable which is likely to increase after the current 3D programme providing more upside.
95% interest = 2.075 billion bls.
Govt share of 15-20% across all 4 licences.

Therefore at least 1.71 billion bls net potential (pre any farm out).

Page 8 latest broker valuation gives 155p per 126 mmboe net.

So using those figures -
1700 mmbls recoverable = £21.00 possible value but needing some modest dilution later down the road for future drilling funds if going it alone.

Farm out could bring significant cash impact injection depending on % amount farmed out perhaps $100m-$200m of drilling funds such is the opportunity and high COS spread over a good number of prospects.

Should a 50% farmout occur -
A 50% stake gives an overall 850 mmbls net or £10.50 target and less future dilution.
Eocene targets given as 79% COS and overall average including other stacked targets give 67% COS. You don’t get much better than that.

Chinese success was 975 mmbls and up to 80% success rate.
If SAVP were to get just 25-35% success rate and on a 50% farm out, share price target has to be worth 260 -360p + impact of any farm value in negating need for future finance re drilling.

Any early success from the fully funded programme for the initial wells could forward price in some of the potential huge future upside for additional success - imo over £2 - ie similarly as per Sound Energy at £520m m/cap (no reserves declared other than having 2 well tests and now on an EWT).

Savp floated at 58p and last funding at 38p (while the share price was 23p) so that's only a 4 -5 upside for those substantial investors.

A further opportunity is this, (in this current year) - ie Broker note mentions that ‘NNPCs exploration arm (FES) on the Nigerian side has received approval for a very large 5,000 km2 3D seismic programme (which is already underway) and a 6 well drilling campaign. The driver for FES is that SAVP has a significant database and technical understanding on its portion of the rift basin. In exchange for its involvement, SAVP expects to earn a back right (to be determined in further talks) in a success case, providing meaningful optionality in a new exploration frontier without any of the associated capital costs’. This could yet prove significant value in a success case.

[shafaq] 10/1/2017 14:24

30p now being paid and NT to buy.Get over 30p and think plain sailing to 40s 50s.

[gray1107] 06/1/2017 12:21

Starting to get everything in place for the campaign, great things to come this year;

Savannah Petroleum is pleased to confirm the appointment of Antoine Richard as VP Operations. Mr Richard has over 20 years' experience working for both major (Total) and independent (Perenco) oil & gas companies worldwide, including 10 years' experience in West Africa. He has a strong operational background (seismic acquisition in desert environments, management of drilling campaigns, onshore facilities design and operation, production optimisation, etc.). His previous positions within Perenco included Global HSE Manager and General Manager roles for Congo, Egypt and Venezuela.

[ngms27] 05/1/2017 14:31

Maybe merging with SOU?

[zengas] 05/1/2017 11:12

Stifel weren't involved in the $40m 38p placing 6 months ago (when the share price was 23p), but did act as joint book runners in the $36m 38p placing in July 2015.

With the $12m revolving loan facility put in place last month - said to be for amongst other things, potential acquisitions, and now the appointment of Stifel who also specialise in acquisitions/mergers as part of their business, who knows what additionally may be on the cards.

[dorset64] 05/1/2017 10:48

Thanks ngms

[ngms27] 05/1/2017 10:05

It's usually around funding.

[dorset64] 05/1/2017 10:02

Whats the benefits of having a joint broker right now? Anyone had experience of such before?

[divmad] 15/12/2016 17:25

Could the loan be to fund SAVP's share of the proposed export pipeline?