Sarossa Share Discussion Threads

[generalpplum] 25/4/2003 01:45

Government Ministers acting like ostriches on SARS because all the emergency budgets have been siphoned into the Iraqi conflict.

Urgent action is required but will be too little too late, as we've become accustomed to! Too many vested interests I'm afraid..... One or two thousand cases needed on UK mainland before anything appropriate is even considered.

Pour me a Lemsip and make it a f$*&!g large one!

[ignoble] 24/4/2003 23:48

How many people are 5% of the World Population.

This is not meant to sound uncaring or in the least disrespectful but how will the bodies be disposed of ?

[ahkeen] 24/4/2003 23:46

The last person to say "everything is under control" was the Iraqi Information Minister, and he only had to look out of the window to see he was wrong!

This govt is relying on other countries screening their departing passengers!

Hmmmm!

[burlington] 24/4/2003 22:39

Not to worry,the Government Chief Medical Officer has said everthing is under control. This is the Government that handled the foot and mouth epidemic. So thats alright then.

[isis] 24/4/2003 18:29

Anyone notice SARS is a anagram of ARSS.

[mickyjr1] 24/4/2003 18:07

SARS: killing the killer bug

The name SARS is actually used in hospitals to describe a variety of illnesses that cause extreme difficulty in breathing. As for what in particular is causing the disease behind two confirmed cases in the UK and many more across the globe – Canada, China, Germany, Singapore, Slovenia, Spain, Thailand, US and Vietnam – scientists remain unsure.

There was a breakthrough on Wednesday (19 March) – just a week after the World Health Organization issued its first warning of an "atypical pneumonia" – when scientists in Hong Kong discovered it came from the Paramyxoviridae family of viruses and was not a form of influenza, as had been widely assumed.

This family of viruses includes such well-known diseases as measles and mumps, as well as recent killers the Nipah virus and the Hendra virus. However, the fact that the specific virus has still not been identified, despite 11 laboratories across the world working on it, makes it increasingly likely it is a brand new type.

Planes, trains and hotel rooms

Where has it come from? What are we doing about it? And are we at risk of a global epidemic?

The virus originated from a Chinese professor who stayed at the Hong Kong Metropole Hotel in February and subsequently died of the disease. Through tracking back, we now know it spread to other guests who stayed on the ninth floor. They then infected other people they were in close contact with and the disease crossed the world by international airline travel.

The Chinese professor therefore forms a link with an earlier epidemic in China's Guangdong province, which its government says infected 300 and killed five. However, experts fear official statistics misrepresent the situation because the Chinese government sees such matters as politically sensitive – Chinese journalists have been forbidden to write about the disease for example.

Any misrepresentation and the subsequent delay in tackling the illness go directly against the modern system of dealing with infectious diseases. Speed really is the issue. The longer it takes to discover, pinpoint and isolate a disease, the more people it will affect, since one person can infect another 10, each of whom can infect another 10 and so on.

As has been unfortunately demonstrated in this case, advances in global travel means that quick international action is more important than ever.

This is the modern world

Infectious diseases account for around a quarter of deaths worldwide. The hope that new drugs discovered in the 1960s and 1970s would mean an end to these illnesses proved hopelessly naïve. The organisms have grown resistant and modern treatments for extending people's lives or tackling existing diseases mean that people's immune systems are often weakened and so they are at greater risk.

And new diseases are appearing all the time, as viruses mutate and change quite naturally. The two most recent diseases from the Paramyxoviridae family have also had devastating effects: the Nipah virus, caught from pigs, caused 265 cases of human encephalitis (brain inflammation), including 105 deaths in 1998; and the Hendra virus, caught from horses, killed two people in Australia in 1994 and 1995. No treatment was available in either case.

The new SARS outbreak also precedes the creation of the Health Protection Agency in the UK by just a few weeks. This agency will specialise in tackling such diseases and will be officially established on April 1 this year.

Psycho killer: qu'est-ce que c'est?

So what makes a killer virus? Viruses are surprisingly clever – they hijack a cell's reproduction mechanism and make copies of themselves. In the case of a paramyxovirus, your own cells are compelled to make copies of the virus's RNA. These copies then spread around the body, infecting other cells.

Eventually, the virus will die of its own accord. However, by then it may well have disrupted the body so much that a part of it is unable to function and the person or animal dies.

Your body's immune system is designed to track down viruses and destroy them. However, the more vicious a virus, the harder the immune system's job; when there is a particularly nasty bug, people with weak (or weaker) immune systems may destroy the virus more slowly than it is reproducing and will gradually become more and more debilitated.

Unlike bacteria, which are far bigger than viruses and can be effectively treated, there are no anti-virus drugs. Instead, hospitals do everything they can to keep the body functioning – in this case, putting patients on a ventilator to keep them breathing – until the virus eventually dies.

Although the new bug is contagious, it is not as catching as influenza and so experts are not that worried about the possibility of a global epidemic. Most of those affected have been hospital workers who have had close contact with patients. Those infected are being isolated to prevent spread of the disease and hospital workers are wearing masks with filter holes small enough to stop the virus.

Science has an answer

Scientists are working on creating a test for the disease so those infected can be quickly identified and their chances of survival greatly increased. Experts are also developing a vaccine so that, if necessary, it will be possible to protect those not yet affected.

However, experts are still trying to find out how the disease is spread. All these types of virus are carried by a vector that is not affected – such as mosquitoes in the case of malaria.

That means it is possible that an animal or insect in China is acting as a vector and so another wave of illness could begin at any time. The aim will be to find this vector and wipe it out.

In the meantime however, it looks as though the modern international system for identifying and dealing with new diseases has been given a thorough test. The disease appears to be under control and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is starting trials to determine a test for the bug, which could be ready in as little as a week.

It's a fast learning-curve, but hopefully we'll be in an even better position to tackle the next killer bug that appears on the scene – which could travel even faster and be even more contagious.

Further information:

World Health Organization
www.who.int

Health Protection Agency
www.doh.gov.uk/cmo/hpa

[maywillow] 24/4/2003 16:24

SINGAPORE (AFX) - The SARS epidemic will cut the combined full year GDP of
East Asian economies by at least 16.5 bln usd or 0.7 pct, Standard Chartered
Bank said.
Within the region, China and Hong Kong will suffer the most, the UK-based
bank said in a report, trimming its growth outlook this year for the two
economies.
The bank cut its economic growth estimate for China to 7.5 pct from 7.9 pct
and for Hong Kong, growth has been slashed to 0.5 pct from 3.5 pct.
"The impact will be greatest in Hong Kong and in China," chief economist
Gerard Lyons said in the report.
"Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is expected to knock at least 16.5
bln usd off GDP in nine Asian economies most affected by the virus," Lyons said.
The nine economies -- China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand -- have a combined GDP of 2.52
trln usd, the report said.
Standard Chartered said its assessment is based on SARS having a three-month
impact but warned the fallout from the virus could be extended for the rest of
the year.
"There are still many uncertainties, making it hard to gauge fully the
likely economic and financial impact," Lyons said.
"Clearly given that we cannot say with certainty when the virus will end, we
should not underestimate its impact and we need to be aware of the downside
risks," he said.
At least 261 have died around the world from the pneumonia-like disease,
which has infected more than 4,600 people.
While the contagion has been limited so far, Standard Chartered said the
global economy will likely feel the pinch from the SARS epidemic if the outbreak
continues.
"As non-Japan Asia was the fastest growing region of the world economy last
year, there will be a global impact from SARS," Lyons said.
"This global impact will be greater, the longer the virus (lasts)," he said.
bh/mba/dv/rf/wf

[hyper al] 24/4/2003 15:31

alkrington

The death rate could get a lot higher. 40% of people with SARS need intensive care, so far SARS has only occured where hospitals are available with intensive care beds, watch the death rate rise as SARS moves into more remote parts of China. You could see a 40% death rate if people don't have access th required health facilities (most of the world!)

MartinC

Not even the World Health Organisation have the answer to your statement.

[hugepants] 24/4/2003 15:27

IM no expert but I dont see SARS as being particularly infectious. Hong Kong as 7 million people and only about 1200 people have caught the bug. And the rate of new infections is decreasing. There is no exponential growth (or anything like it) and SARS is well under control IMO. dyor

[martinc] 24/4/2003 15:17

I don't know what percentage of people who are exposed to the virus succumb to infection. It could be 100%.. or it could only be 10%.

[dexdringle] 24/4/2003 14:26

blimey you lot - it must be being so cheerful that keeps you going !!!!!!

[alkrington] 24/4/2003 14:24

Have a look at



The columns that you should take note of are "Number deaths" versus "number recovered".

These figures are currntly 2032 and 251 respectivly. I make that about 12.5% death rate!

Mike.

[mbu69] 24/4/2003 14:18

Divina , I thought i had misheard the screening on departure and not arrival ( MADNESS ) on the news last night. Obviously not. Oh Dear ......

[divina] 24/4/2003 14:02

Cant believe the UK government have not issued screening at UK airports and Docks ASKING FOR TROUBLE. You heard it here 1st!!!

I heard last night on the news that it was the responsibity to screen on departure. Thats passing the buck CRAZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[divina] 24/4/2003 13:58

I hope the UK Government get it right!

[hyper al] 24/4/2003 10:42

mickyjr1

I agree governments need to act!

SmokeTrader

Your correct the strain of SARS is different in Toronto to that in Hong Kong. It could be that the same population could get a new strain of SARS every year with a 5% death rate each time and I think the percentage rate could increase each time.

The government should stop all international travel until it is under control. It is almost out of control, it must be stopped before it is.

[mickyjr1] 23/4/2003 20:43

on the news today that this is far worse than aids and could bring down global GDP by 2%
And the strain has shown signs of mutaiting from the lungs to infections of the digestive system,global pandemic?.
need the goverments to act now!.

[smoketrader] 23/4/2003 20:20

5% die assuming there is only one strain.

SARS being a coronavirus is similar to flu. It mutates. Immunity to one strain does not protect against other strains.

I think I'm right in saying there are thousands of strains of flu.

What is 0.95^1000? A worryingly small number.

Hopefully there's something I don't know.

[smellsnbells] 23/4/2003 19:57

not alarmist at all. we havn`t had a world wide disease like this in times of mass media. AIDS is the only one but its incubation is very slow. An airborn visrus is very different.It spreads fast and kills quickly. The last big human wipe out (if I can call it that) was the India flu in the 20`s. It killed 20 million. But it adapted to not to kill itself by not killing its host. The same will probably happen with AIDS and SARS but may take many of us before it works out how to suvive and co-exist with us. interesting to see how the media play it. time to think about putting on a mask on public transport.......well...maybe soon at any rate.

[marwalker] 23/4/2003 19:43

Really is becoming disturbing . Channel 4 news ' expert ' states that infected numbers are doubling every two weeks . Only 5 % die but he pointed out that most of the worlds population has a health budget of 2 dollars a year. If Canada is having a problem dealing with it whats going to happen to the majority of the worlds population ? He compared it to the 1918 flu pandemic but at that time people moved in horse carts , liners , and trains . What will happen in todays world of jet travel ? he asks . Maybe an alarmist but he did appear to be genuinely frightned .

[hyper al] 23/4/2003 10:43

maywillow

I think we will see quite a few companies attempting to find a cure/prevention for SARS, but because it mutates rapidly they will not stop it.

The fact is that we will all get SARS at least once and like the common cold we could get it on a regular basis as it mutates. If each strain kills 5% of the population everytime, then it will certainly keep the global population under control!

I still think WHO the UN and governments should take this more seriously. Considering how dangerous this is and the damage it will do to the western economy we could well see a total ban on ALL travel for a two week period, although how this could be policed I am not sure.

Oh well, back to work.