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|Oil & Gas Producers
Real-Time news about Salamander (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|speedsgh: ammons - SMDR listed at 250p at the end of 2006 + the share price peaked just above 350p in Q2 2008. The value destruction has been pretty much relentless ever since (unless you were lucky enough to pick the bottom falling out of the equity markets later in 2008). Apart from the sharp drop/rebound in the oil price in 2008/09, the oil price has been at very attractive levels throughout SMDR's listed history until falling through the $80 level in Nov 2014. So I think it disingenuous to suggest that value destruction was largely as a result of "the oil price falling off a cliff". With the exception of 2008/09 + the recent fall, the oil price has been largely supportive. It would be v interesting to plot the SMDR share price against POO since they listed. Aimho.|
|ed 123: Value destruction? Yes!!! Salamander's management had long enough (eight and a half years as a listed company) and a couple of raisings, to get some sort of result for shareholders. Outcome? ........ share price fell from 250p at ipo to c.80p (including a small takeover premium). Obviously, a poor investment for anyone who held throughout.
To me, the takeover looks good for both sets of shareholders. SE Asia, shallow oil and onshore gas from Salamander balances the Africa, deep offshore gas of Ophir - spreads risk.
Will Ophir's management do any better? The cash on Ophir's balance sheet gives it a great chance. FWIW, I would prioritise onshore Kalimantan gas (big licence area) - relatively low cost, low risk, almost unaffected by the oil price and should be fairly readily saleable for local consumption or generation.|
|loglorry1: Share price likely sub 50p if deal had not gone through.|
|loglorry1: I'm in here for a decent sized slug at 60.6p.
SMDR operating costs of $16/boe should mean they can withstand a low oil price environment and although I've never understood how the Thai tax system works - taxes should reduce with oil price.
The OPHR bid will likely go through still and OPHR's cash backing should provide a floor on the SMDR price. Also the $400m or so of debt at SMDR (which is not at all attractive) won't matter if it is subsumed by OPHR.
OPHR have great assets if you believe in the long term viability of LNG exports to Asia which has a lot of merits so I'm ok to hold OPHR and hopefully they can do great things with their cash in this environment.
(also hold a bit of OPHR)|
|nigelpm: And worth noting that Nigelpm has been completley wrong about SMDR price action since i can remember....
Indeed. It's not a competition. Most on here are surprised at the share price.|
|pineapple1: nigelpm 6 Dec'14 - 20:39 - 2071 of 2074 1 0
Worth noting pineapple was only "right" because of the fall in the oil price
And worth noting that Nigelpm has been completley wrong about SMDR price action since i can remember....|
|lonrho: Just topped up, ok net debt was high at the the half year at $400m but second half operating cash flow should be $200m and operating costs per barrel were $18 in the first half and should reduce in the second half. This is being priced as though there will be no deal and in that event the company is on its way to going bust.Oil prices would have to be a lot lower than this to justify the current share price and the company has some built in protection as the SRB tax %age reduces as the oil price goes down.|
|specul82: Little volume today I think we will be holding on until the last minute and Ophir will be hoping that there share price increases or that the there is a rebound in the price of oil,Personally I am hoping that there is no change for a few days so I can invest some more into smdr at these prices|
|abcd1234: David Round round at BMO notes speculation that CEPSA previously made a bid for Salamander at circa 144p
Round’s around 140-149p in valuing this
We would be surprised if management were to recommend an offer at or around the suggested price of £275 million, particularly given their stance just a few months ago, apparently rejecting an offer at a much higher price. There is no clarity on CEPSA’s approach.
Whilst the reported deal would offer a healthy ~32% premium to the current share price, the shares were trading at this level only a month ago, prior to heightened oil price concerns. The weakness in Brent has affected valuations; however, we expect management would agree with our view that the fall in the share price has, to some extent at least, been unwarranted.
We do not rule out a deal at a higher price but believe companies looking to take advantage of the recent pull-back in share prices will find it difficult given the speed of the de-rating.
Our Core NAV currently stands at 111p/sh, although this includes the Sona deal. Stripping this out would reduce our NAV by around 10%. Recent deals, however, highlight the attractiveness of the portfolio to 3rd parties; we currently value 2P reserves at Bualuang at US$17.3/bbl and Sinphuhorm at US$5.8/bbl but note recent deals have transacted at US$19.1/bbl and US$13.2/bbl respectively.
If we mark to market our Core NAV increases to 140-149p/sh.
FT Alphaville 27/10/14|
|speedsgh: Well SMDR share price has been in a downtrend since Q1 2011 so it's about time it turned upwards + had a go at creating shareholder value rather than destroying it.|
Salamander Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange