Sabmiller Share Discussion Threads

[thomasthetank1] 22/4/2016 13:35

Read AlphaValue's note on SABMILLER, out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0004835483
"SABMiller released its Q4 and FY trading update. Numbers are strong on an underlying basis, however FX headwinds also remain strong. In Q4, the NPR (net producer revenue) grew +7% whereas volumes were up +3%. Group NPR/hl grew by +3%. On reported figures, NPR was down 4% due to adverse FX winds. NPR by region: LatAm +8%, Africa +12%, Asia Pacific +4%, Europe +3%, North America +3%. On a FY basis, the group’s NPR grew +5% (-8% on reported figures) with volumes up +2%. NPR by region: LatAm +8%, Africa +11%, Asia Pacific +3%, Europe +2%, North America +0% ..."

[robrah] 23/10/2015 08:34

Wonder what will happen here ?? Any news when the deal will be announced . I.e will they go forward or not ?

[binladin] 20/10/2015 13:29

It would be amazing if the deal did not go through..The smart guys could make a fortune by shorting from 4000p....

[warwick69] 14/10/2015 16:46

Robrah yes I have just done the same can't see the market letting this go much higher than this for quite a while and you are going to see more and more voices like South African unions and regulators putting conditions in the way still believe there may be an opportunity to buy back in again if it had any minor sell off I will step back in !!!

[robrah] 14/10/2015 15:22

Ok that it for me .I am out decent profit. Sure it could will hit 45 but nothing is for sure . Goodluck all. reinvesting all proceeds in vod near 205 and lloyds

[warwick69] 14/10/2015 15:12

Getting better more must be happy to load up or hold less sellers

[fangorn2] 14/10/2015 08:42

@Warwick,

Don't disagree with that conclusion no. Still good value at current levels, assuming regulators decide not to kaibosh it.

[warwick69] 14/10/2015 03:57

Yes I am well aware of that but in essence that then should not effect the spot price as anyone buying stock today will get £44 plus about 80p in dividends when or if the deal completes so the only risk is the time the capital is tied up and if the deal is blocked by regulators? On that issue the companies will offload the companies like china snow that causes the regulators any issues? The prize to AB inbev is Africa it has little cover there. Apparently 65 million people reach the age where they are eligible to drink over next few years... So as far as I can see anyone who wants a one year return of circa 12% on there capital should buy even now? Clearly many short term buyers will take money out now as they will be looking to put the capital to work else where!

[fangorn2] 13/10/2015 18:22

@Warwick,

The Share/cash offer is to ensure the main Share holders, Altria eing one at 27% Equity, dont get hit by a chunky CGT bill. Most other holders will take "All Cash" offer.

Question is how long it will take to get closed - a year someone said on bloomberg!

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 16:18

Maybe this will just range trade now between 3920 an 3980 so just play the spread betting game between these bands for the next year

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 16:17

I am surprised this fell back so easily from the little rally to 3675 still feel this is trading at far to big a discount to the £44 plus divi offer as its only the big institutions that may take the share an cash offer Is it all down to the time lag and fear of non completion surely the $ 3 billion fail payment is going to be incentive enough to complete this

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 14:04

The divi is $1.22 so even better argument to go long at this price of real shares

[ygor706] 13/10/2015 14:01

So, the share price is around £39.50 with a £44 offer on the table plus a probable dividend of around 15p and a contingent break fee payable to us of US $ 3 billion. Doesn't look too bad a risk on the buy side against regulatory concerns that look overhyped against the wide spread of jurisdictions involved.

[hpcg] 13/10/2015 13:39

I would expect this to work towards a 5% discount in the next few months. In this interest rate environment 5% in 6 months is a good return for those who count in billions. Also worth pointing out that the interim dividend will be declared and paid before the year is out.

[nw99] 13/10/2015 11:56

Still a buy £4 here

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 11:47

Trying to break 3950.

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 11:41

This will not go above 3950 complete barrier at this level

[spob] 13/10/2015 11:38

From the FT


Although AB InBev and SAB are the two largest beer makers, some analysts have downplayed the regulatory risks due to the distinct geographic split of their businesses. Nonetheless, a deal would likely take well over a year to complete because it will require approvals in dozens of jurisdictions.

To satisfy antitrust rules in the US, analysts said, the combined company would most probably have to sell MillerCoors, a joint venture controlled by SAB. The likely buyer is SAB’s partner Molson Coors, which has a right to make the first and final bid for MillerCoors.

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 11:22

Still think we should see £40 though

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 11:22

Yes bump a that's the score guess traders think they will make the ten percent else where before the deal completes

[bumpa33] 13/10/2015 11:14

maybe a combination of slight regulatory concerns and a discount on time value - how long would it take for shareholders to actually receive their £44?

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 10:59

Yes but still gives buyers an opportunity to make on the deal

[fangorn2] 13/10/2015 10:49

Guess this is why they are trading at 3944

"Under the new terms, a 'partial share alternative' (PSA) will be offered for up to 41% of SABMiller shares, at a discount to the cash price paid for the rest. Investors who receive the PSA will get a split of AB InBev (ABI.BR) shares and cash worth a combined £39.03."

+

"Despite their rally in the morning's trading, SABMiller shares are still trading at a discount of more than 10% to the cash offer price, with investors pricing in the prospect of regulators rejecting the deal."


Altria will be taking the PSA, their 27% would lead to too large a CGT gain for their stake which in on their books at about $7bn odd I gather.

"SABMiller and AB InBev are also bidding to extend the deadline before which the latter must make a firm offer, which is due to fall tomorrow, until 28 October."

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 10:45

Hey oh why are there so many sellers must be HFT robot trades surely not existing shareholders what a strange reaction to the agreed bid plus divi

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 10:27

Slowly recovering to start position still long way to go