Ryanair Share Discussion Threads

[lbo] 22/5/2012 21:36

Ryanair may be forced to sell Aer Lingus shares

[lbo] 22/5/2012 15:06

The current valuations of our airlines should also give would-be investors pause for thought. Ryanair, which will soon report results for the year-ended March 2012, trades at a price to earnings ratio of 12.6.

That means its share price is roughly 12.6 times its current earnings per share, making it look expensive compared to Aer Lingus's P/E ratio of 7.3 and IAG's 7.1 (Though more in line with Lufthansa's 11.3, Southwest's 11.97 and US Airways' 10.57.)

Ryanair's 'price to book' -- the ratio of its share price to book value/assets per share -- tells a similar story. Ryanair has the second highest price to book, coming in at 2.0 against easyJet's 1.3, IAG's 0.8, Aer Lingus's 0.6, Lufthansa's 0.6 and Air France KLM's 0.2.

One view is that the market is betting Ryanair can put its assets to better use than the other airlines -- a view borne out by the airline's consistent ability to outperform its peers on virtually all performance metrics. Another view is that Ryanair's share value is simply too high, that while there should be a premium for Ryanair's superior management, the premium is too great.

[pdosullivan] 21/5/2012 21:13

Hi all - I penned a post-results piece on Ryanair that I thought you might find of interest -

[lbo] 21/5/2012 11:32

Ryanair warns profits set to fall

[lbo] 30/3/2012 11:30

Shares in the budget carrier have fallen by 27pc since March 2007, only marginally better than the average for all non-financial shares traded on the Dublin market

[lbo] 27/2/2012 15:41

Ryanair's stocks fell 6c to E4.04 after Merrion Stockbrokers said the airline's fuel bills will rise by up to 30pc over the next two years and it won't be able to recover all of this cost in higher fares, according to an analysis from Merrion Stockbrokers this morning. Analyst, Gerard Moore, is downgrading the airline's shares to "sell" from "Hold". "While Ryanair is likely to pay a special dividend of E500m in 2013, ultimately, earnings estimates will drive the share price. Over the next two years unit fuel costs will rise by 30pc. Non fuel unit costs are also rising. We believe the market overestimates Ryanair's ability to recover this cost inflation. Fares are already at a decade high level and have risen faster than peers over the last two years. The European consumer remains weak while capacity grows. Given this earnings risk we downgrade the stock to Sell from Hold. Our 2014 EPS forecast is 16pc below consensus," he said.

[wexboy] 23/2/2012 01:51

Hi folks,

Just posted Part V of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, including valuation and some commentary about Ryanair:



Cheers,

Wexboy

[typo56] 30/1/2012 08:33

Today's headline percentages look more misleading than their fares!

How can a loss of €10.3m to a profit of €14.9m be declared a percentage change of +244%? If anything it's a percentage change of -244%.

For €14.9m to be a change of +244% the prior period would have to have been a profit of €4.33m.

Supposing the prior period loss had been only €0.1m. Would they have said today's profit of €14.9m represented a change of 15,000%? Clearly nonsense!

[ballamory1] 25/10/2011 15:44

the share price will collapse now, why would you post such rubbish

[leonim] 09/6/2011 23:27

New York, June 9th (TradersHuddle.com) - The NYSE Airline index ended the session lower by closing at $40.58, which represents -0.26% versus its previous day close. The airline index exhibited weakness throughout with 4 out of 12 airlines trading higher.

Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY) was the top performer of the sector today closing at $30.19 representing 1.38%. versus the previous trading session. Shares of Ryanair, the low fare European airline have defined support at $28.01 and resistance at $30.65.

Delta (NYSE:DAL) was also among the top performers, closed the trading session at $9.18 representing 0.44% from its previous close. Delta, the largest airline in the world has calculated support and resistance levels at $10.54 and $11.60 respectively. The other top performer was United Continental (NYSE:UAL), which closed the trading session at $21.91 representing 0.05% from the previous trading session.

The sector's worst performers include US Airways (NYSE:LCC) that closed the trading session at $8.04 or -2.66% from the previous close. Shares of US Airways, the Phoenix based airline have defined support at $8.01 and resistance at $10.35. Also among the worst performers was Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes (NYSE:GOL), which closed the trading session at $12.24 representing -1.77% from the previous trading session.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was higher closing the trading session at $99.4 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange higher by $0.96 from the previous trading session. Crude prices are closely watched by traders as they usually correlate with the airline stocks, given that a big component of the airlines' cost structure is covered by the price of fuel.

[gramsci] 06/6/2011 20:03

I was in Paris over the weekend and this morning O'Leary was on French tellie, from an interview conducted on the London Eye, pontificating about his leadership. If he had his way his punters would pay to breathe the air on his planes.

What a tool.

PS: I flew Air France.

[spob] 24/5/2011 12:59

More turbulence for Ryanair
Created:24 May 2011Written by:Lee Wild

Investors Chronicle

A new ash cloud from Iceland took the shine off a big increase in full-year profits at Ryanair, which would have topped €450m were it not for last year's volcanic chaos. So will the budget airline's warning that passenger traffic will halve this year and its fuel bill continue to rise?

Fuel costs leapt 37 per cent to €1.2bn over the 12 months and, with oil prices sticking near $100, an extra €350m will be spent on fuel in the coming year. Fares went up 12 per cent and the budget airline "cautiously" expects the same again this year, but that extra revenue will only cover the expanding fuel bill, keeping after-tax profits flat. The group also says that twice as many planes as last year will sit idle over the winter. Up to 80 on unprofitable routes will be grounded, crimping expected traffic growth to 4 per cent in 2012.

But Ryanair spies an opportunity amidst the gloom. High oil prices will force competitors to keep cutting capacity "or go bust", giving it the chance to increase market share and expand into new markets.

Broker Davy predicts little change in adjusted EPS for 2011-12 at 27.5¢, from 27¢ last year.


RYANAIR HOLDINGS (RYA)

ORD PRICE: €3.38 MARKET VALUE: €5.03bn
TOUCH: €3.37-€3.38 12-MONTH HIGH: €4.24 LOW: €2.73
DIVIDEND YIELD: nil PE RATIO: 13
NET ASSET VALUE: 198¢ NET DEBT: 24%



Year to 31 Mar Turnover (€bn) Pre-tax profit (€m) Earnings per share (¢) Dividend per share (¢)*
2007 2.24 451 28.2 nil
2008 2.71 439 25.8 nil
2009 2.94 -181 -11.4 nil
2010 2.99 341 20.7 nil
2011 3.63 421 25.2 nil
% change +23 +23 +22 -
*Does not include special dividends



Guide to the terms used in IC results tables.

More analysis of company results


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IC VIEW:
HighEnoughRyanair is understandably cautious given the fuel situation and uncertain economic climate, and it could do without further tectonic upheaval. And, with no regular dividend, the shares are high enough for now.

[lbo] 23/5/2011 16:14

Iceland ash cloud may hit Ireland

[spob] 23/5/2011 11:01

Ryanair to double number of jets grounded in winter
By Mark Odell in London

FT

Published: May 23 2011 09:26 | Last updated: May 23 2011 09:26

Ryanair plans to double the number of aircraft it grounds in the weaker winter period amid concerns about the economic outlook and high fuel prices as it announced it expected to report flat earnings this year.

Europe's largest low-cost carrier by passenger numbers said it would temporarily stop flying 80 jets in the winter schedule, between November and April next year, up from 40 last winter, leaving with a modest 4 per cent growth in capacity in its financial year to the end of March 2012. At the end of March, the airline had a fleet of 272 aircraft.

EDITOR'S CHOICE
Europe on alert over volcanic ash cloud - May-23Aer Lingus' quarterly losses widen - May-05Founder seeks special dividend from EasyJet - May-10Union welcomes BA deal that avoids humiliation - May-12Flybe shares dive on profit warning - May-05Lex: European budget airlines - May-05

"Since we have limited visibility on bookings, we remain concerned at the impact of the recession, austerity measures and falling consumer confidence on fares," Michael O'Leary, chief executive, said in a statement.

The comments came as Ryanair reported a 23 per cent rise in net profit to €374.6m ($525.2m) in the 12 months to the end of March from €305.3m in the same period a year earlier.

The earnings, which included an €26m hit from the cost of the disruption to air travel over Europe caused by the volcanic eruption in Iceland last year, were slightly ahead of expectations but the cautious outlook spooked investors, sending the shares down 5 per cent to €3.36 in early morning trading in Dublin.

Adjusted earnings per share rose 25 per cent to 27 cents (22 cents) as revenues rose 21 per cent to €3.63bn (€2.99bn).

Like all other airlines, Ryanair is facing growing pressure from rising fuel prices and the carrier expects its fuel bill to rise by €350m this year, after a jump of 37 per cent to €1.23bn in the past 12 months to the end of March.

The carrier, which has 90 per cent of its fuel requirements for this financial year hedged at an average of $82 per barrel, said the high oil prices would likely see it report net income for the full year to March 2012 at the same level as this year – €400m excluding the cost of volcanic disruption.

It said higher oil prices were expected to push operating costs up 13 per cent this financial year, while average fares would only rise 12 per cent.

[lbo] 27/4/2011 15:50

Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) Downgraded by Zacks Investment Research to "Underperform"