Roxi Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 16:22

There are two important events likely before XMAS:

1) A6 and whether it manages to reach TD, get logged and be flow tested
2) The Baverstock merger

I actually believe the Baverstock merger T&C's is dependent on A6

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 16:17

timberwolf,

I never said this:
one minute your suggesting they won't be able to get the oil flowing, the next it's the Kazak's are going to shaft a few small investors from the UK for £10 or £20 million quid.

What I have said is that I think they have a < 20% chance of flowing either of A5, A6 or 801 in a sustainable manner based on evidence to date.

What field are you referring to? Remember 801 isn't the same structure / field as A5. The juries out on A6. The CPR stated the largest deep structure was <100m barrels and being totally honest they have probably chucked $40m at these so far and proven nothing.

What shareholders need is for A6 to go much deeper than A5, A6 to be the same structure (in pressure communication) with A5, be fully logged and the depth of the oil column established, followed by a sustained flow test at commercial rates.

That would certainly move the share price.

A CPR would then follow to suggest what exactly has been found.

If all the deeps fail to flow and aren't properly logged then RXP are effectively left with just the shallow's and an exploration license that runs out in 18 months. All acreage not proven is lost on this date. In this scenario current equity is well and truly screwed as despite what the puppet says the shallows aren't worth the current market cap.

The Kazakh authorities cannot stop this happening, only the drill bit can and the problem is the rig is underpowered as admitted by RXP.

[trek3] 29/9/2016 16:11

NGMS, if their stated intent was to eventually gain
all the assets, what a long, laborious and expensive
way to go about it, remember when they first bought
in the share price was 3.5p, they paid double market, they
could probably have bought the whole company for
not much more then. I don`t profess to know the end game,
but I doubt very much it involves stiffing a few investors.

[timberwolf3] 29/9/2016 15:52

ngms

Absolute rot;

one minute your suggesting they won't be able to get the oil flowing, the next it's the Kazak's are going to shaft a few small investors from the UK for £10 or £20 million quid.

If they prove up this field, what value then ?

Kazak authorities will NOT let a couple of Kazak nationals bring that sort of bad press on their country when they are currently seeking international investment

[hornetsting] 29/9/2016 15:49

Quick review: Pre- drill MostLikely volumes were a very unexciting 48 mmbbls on Ayrshagyl according to the company presentation. Following the original hype from A5 it would seem they encountered a thicker than expected pay section. However, they never managed to log or test the well. So No cigar.
Then for some reason they drilled a totally different structure with 801, which really looks like a duster to me.
Back to Ayrshayl with A6 and this is on the brink of a total shed-collapse, one year after spudding.

As punts go this is interesting! With some solid reserves in the shallow wells. It could be very big. However, This company has more questions than answers - worth a small punt. On the other hand as they're all Kazakh in control they're as bent as nine bob notes, so I'll stick with my small 10k flutter, until we get more accurate and honest info.

Best of luck to all!

[togglebrush] 29/9/2016 15:48

ngms27 if RXP goes base over apex then;
'
Clive Carver wouldd lose $250,000 per year in Salary and fees and over 8 years options.
He has NO shares.
'
Roughly 75 Kazaks employees would lose roughly £250 per week in wages

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 15:38

trek3,

Question No 1
Do the Kazakh businessmen have any beneficial ownership of Baverstock?

Question No 2
RXP has a debt of $10m to the CEO. Who would benefit from any Debt to Equity deal?

Question No 3
Now consider what would happen if RXP went bust. Who would get the assets?

Therefor I agree the two big Kazakh shareholders aren't mugs. But who is?

[flyingbull] 29/9/2016 15:19

The monthly oil stock challenge is on! A test for for oil stock picking ability. Deadline for entries is this Sunday 2 October 2016.

[trek3] 29/9/2016 15:15

NGMS, I understand the need to be skeptical, and your knowledge
of all things pertaining to oil matters is in no doubt, but I`m
puzzled as to why you think two wealthy Kazakh business men would
spend so much time and money on a 20% chance of success, I may not
know much about oil, but I certainly know my way round finance and
business, and I would hazard a guess our two Kazakhs are no mugs,
it doesn`t make sense!

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 14:53

But we have a share of 500 bopd from the shallows now at $10 per barrel that makes the current share price valid without any deeps....

[konil] 29/9/2016 14:35

timber, i hope all is ok on the cash front, but i put little faith in words. a (fully operational) company that i invested in which had similar comforting words about financing in all their reports to the very last suddenly went bust...so i prefer to see numbers.

all i can see is cash of $2m at 30 june. burn rate over 6 months to 30 june $1.4m per month after including receivables.

[timberwolf3] 29/9/2016 13:20

Hi Konil - it's mentioned breifly under Going concern in the latest interims;


Going Concern

The financial information has been prepared on a going concern basis based upon projected future cash flows and planned work programmes.

Additional funding would in the opinion of the Directors be available if required from the sale of oil produced during testing, further draw downs under the $40 million equity facility and if required by rescheduling various loans.

The Directors are confident, on the above basis, that the Group will have sufficient resources for its operational needs over the relevant period, being until September 2017. Accordingly, the Directors continue to adopt the going concern basis.

[konil] 29/9/2016 13:12

the last we heard about the $40m equity funding deal with satylganov was in the ar for 31/12/2015 (rns 03/06/2016).

"In January 2013, Roxi entered into an equity subscription agreement with Mr Kairat Satylganov for a maximum of $40 million at a price of 7.41p per share. To date some $29.2 million has been drawn down under this agreement leaving some $10.8 million available."
"US$3,000,000 was provided during 2015 by Mr. Kairat Satylganov according to the US$40million funding agreement (2014: $3,700,000). As at 31 December 2015 the Company issued total 244,670,973 ordinary shares in favour of Mr. Satylganov in exchange of US$29,200,000 funding."


its been mentioned in every interim and final report since inception of the facility in january 2013, but there is no mention in the latest interim report.

what's happened to the remaining $10.8m of the $40m equity facility agreed with satylganov???

i'm assuming it has not been drawn because we have not heard about related new share issue to satylganov.

its too big an amount to just ignore, so does its ommission from the latest report mean that satylganov has decided not to extend the remaining $10.8m and roxi have just quietly dropped it without notification to shareholders?

at 30 june cash was $2m. burn rate was $1.4m/month. so by mid-august cash was nil, nada, zero, zilch.

what is going on??????????

are we going to be hit by a funding bombshell diluting us into oblivion!

[xclusive2] 29/9/2016 12:20

Is that a half full glass or a half empty one or is it too dark to see....lol

[hornetsting] 29/9/2016 11:16

Just been reading back through the operational updates. Oh man! Talk about seeing through a glass darkly...... Is there any technical presentation from the company since 2011?

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 08:24

lol Smarty.

I prefer to post in a warts and all style to counteract what are mostly OTT posts from people who have no real knowledge in this industry. I purposely try and put down the real ramptastic merchants, luckily none are here at present.

What I've found over the years is that Management in Companies like RXP tend to be totally full of taurus merde. We as shareholders should question them and make them accountable. Some may remember Jeremy England at AST become a quivering wreck when I questioned him. Guess what they never did produce, never did put in a cheap gas processing plant and Mr Carver is still plugging the same acreage 8 years later. In the meantime equity was wiped out.

I believe wholeheartedly in the original Motley Fool mantra to 'Educate, Amuse and Enrich' prior to them selling out to the Corporations they were so against. I was the 4th member of the original team in the UK and I believe this paved the way for the likes of Martin Lewis who I admire greatly.

So in my view it's good to examine the scenario's presented by management and look to see what they aren't saying because trust me if it were good they would be shouting it to the rooftops.

RXP initially thought they had 500m barrels plus targets in BNG until a CPR slapped them down and put nothing larger than 98m barrels. Another Company thought they had a 'World Class Play Fairway' all they managed was the rough on 5 attempts.

I honestly believe I've got a better than 80% success rate in sorting out the wheat from the chaff in this sector and I still maintain RXP have a < 20% chance of flowing sustainably any oil from ANY of the current deep wells.

So to me it's a punt NOT an investment from here.

[timberwolf3] 29/9/2016 07:22

Smarty - i assume A7 is stepping out from A6 towards 801, like you say if A6 is anything less than encouraging then why bother drilling A7.

[xclusive2] 29/9/2016 07:00

Had another good read of yesterday's RNS this am and as I said yesterday you could spin it positively or negatively.If A6 did fail to deliver or we couldn't test because of the technology we're using then some serious questions need to be asked. If you believe the commentary which we all know has been inconsistent at best, they plan to move A6 rig to A7 ? That won't be happening if they get A6 wrong and can't flow test again. That definitely would be madness, doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result !The oil is there if you believe what's communicated. 801 isn't a shallow well, not in the same structure of 143 but they believe that the well will flow commercially at some juncture.A5 which they believe will be best producer had confirmed the oil is there and did flow successfully albeit for short intervals. A6 is a crucial well and 4386m+ has to hit an oil bearing horizon. They've obviously had issues again with the pressure and heat and we have to hope that they don't deliver the same result as A5 or should I say lack of one. I'd have thought that funding conversations are ongoing and the Baverstock outcome will obviously affect this so success at A6 is even more crucial. The comment re conserving costs during winter months was interesting and I don't believe they'd make that if the coffers were full.They can't limp on hoping that the shallows revenue will fund licence commitments until 2018 and they can benefit from export pricing. You could deduce that from the commentary but hey that's putting the 'negative' spin on. q4 2016 is Roxi's most defining quarter in their 9 year history and the risks are higher than ever. I still take faith from the A5 result and that hopefully they get to flow test A6 !

[xclusive2] 28/9/2016 22:55

Westmoreland Lad,Id better add another ...lol to Jonny's collection then. I don't wish to be rude but our Jonny is a negative individual who rarely presents a balanced view. We all have our agendas and we all post to that agenda. He claims to be invested and rarely presents a positive view ? Maybe I've got the invested bit wrong and he is short rather than long but you don't constantly knock a share you're invested in ! That aside, our Jonny can speak for himself and I will continue to be the yang to his yin.Re Roxi. I believe our Sloppy wasn't far off the mark today with his comments and A6 result is critical to Roxi's future. Much that I'm still all in, the risks are high but the rewards are still in play. WL, good luck with your choice of pals.Smarty

[westmoreland lad] 28/9/2016 20:17

lol konil.

xclusive2 -- I'm sure you already know that Jonny T is no mug in the oil game and
is probably a really nice guy. What I'm unsure of, is that you don't realise that he is a total wind up merchant and gets loads of lol's in the process.

I've ' know him ' > 10 years -- never seen him ramp a share once !!

GL here !

[timberwolf3] 28/9/2016 20:11

Nice one konil .

[konil] 28/9/2016 19:18

about 100 years?

[timberwolf3] 28/9/2016 17:58

Regarding A7 does anyone remember how far away it is from A5 ?

[xclusive2] 28/9/2016 17:19

Jonny,

More than hypothesis sir. We all know the A5 story, also interesting that they state that they see A5 as the well delivering best flow rates ?

'Once flowing&nbsp;freely we&nbsp;continue to believe the production&nbsp;rate at&nbsp;A5 will be the 
best of the three deep wells spudded to date.'


Stating that A5 will be the best of the 3 wells spudded thus far and intimates that all 3 will be producers ? Also planning A7 and they wouldn't if A6 not a success.

Games being played i feel but lets see how far the oil interval extends from 4386m and that they're able to test it !!

[ngms27] 28/9/2016 14:19

It's my belief that the principle target in A6 is thought to be at 4386m which corresponds to the 105m oil bearing section discovered from 4332m on A5. Thus they expect to hit this zone 54m down dip on A6.

What they will want to do is see how far the oil column extends down and also see if they can find the OWC (if one exists).

This would allow a CPR to at least come up with some 2C resource numbers for the accumulation.

So put another way if the discovered column extends further than 51m (assuming it's hit at 4386m) the oil in place will be in addition to what they have already proven.

It is interesting that they have TD stated at 5000m so they at least suspect that any oil column or other accumulations extend materially below what was discovered at A5.

However personally with the current rig I very much doubt they will get to test much if any of this hypothesis.