Rose Grp Share Discussion Threads

[andrbea] 10/3/2009 15:23

good luck
some are against it (post 8Trader and his point of just 2 MMs)

added to W-List

[shammytime] 10/3/2009 12:29

Ridiculous online limits, can't buy anything at all!

[shammytime] 10/3/2009 12:07

Only a matter of time before this one shoots back to over a penny.

[andrbea] 10/3/2009 10:56

Yep

My take:

They raised considerable funds this time last year and sold a property last autumn.. so they should have enough ready cash to see them thru' 2009 IMO. Construction spend is down anyway (many projects on ice for the time being)

By year-end 2009 world markets should recover & they can resume their building projects (largely mothballed at present to save costs)

nia dyor

[shammytime] 10/3/2009 10:42

This looks unbelievablely undervalued. Astonishing.

[andrbea] 10/3/2009 10:13

I asked rgi about the miserably low share price
and asked: would that prompt them to take the company private?

I got this reply from one of the directors dd March 4:

The board of directors of RGI share your concern at the decline in RGI's share price. Since the announcement of the Company's half year results on 5 September 2008, the world's economic climate has changed dramatically. Global and particularly Russian capital markets and banking systems have been in crisis. This has made it extremely difficult for Russian real estate developers to access the capital required to start building work on new projects or to sell or let properties on commercially reasonable terms.


In response to these events, the board of directors of RGI have already reviewed the entire portfolio of the Company together with the proposed completion schedules for individual projects. As announced in November of last year, following this review, the board has decided to focus on completion of the Tsvetnoy Project, while limiting work in respect of its other projects to gaining approvals and permits from the relevant authorities.


In response to your query relating to delisting, absent particular circumstances, cancellation of RGI's admission to trading on AIM requires the consent of at least 75% of its shareholders. RGI is an independent company and therefore cannot comment on the intentions of its shareholders.


Kind regards


Emanuel Kuzinetz

[andrbea] 10/3/2009 09:55

some posts from earlier:



andrbea - 27 Feb'09 - 15:22 - 26 of 42 edit


which is plain stupid
but I agree, these are stupid times...

take another property company (minerva)..

eg when minerva had a Price Objective of 110p, the shares were trading on a 70% discount to the broker's adjusted NAV forecast of 299p.

so a roughly 70% discount (is normal) for share price to adjusted nav

rgi's nav is 16$/share, so (in normal times) we should be seeing 4.80$/share,.. not the current 0.10$/share (48 times too low)

andrbea - 27 Feb'09 - 16:20 - 27 of 42 edit


another calculation

take current share price for minerva (another property company with rentals):
9.30p

it has a basic net asset value per share at 31 December 2008 of 20.2 pence

so a ratio of 46% (current share price to NAV/share)


rgi has a nav/share of 16$ and a current share price of 0.10$
so a ratio of 0.625%

rgi: bargain of the century?

nia dyor

[andrbea] 10/3/2009 09:40

Moscow rentals

Most expensive real estate markets

March 6 2009

Monte Carlo is No 1 in the Global Property Guide's list of World's Most Expensive Residential Real Estate Markets 2009, more than twice as expensive, at US$45, 000 per square metre, as the runner up.

Battling for the number 2 position are prime central Moscow and London. Prime central Moscow's US$20,853 per square metre price tag slightly outpaces core Prime London's US$20,756 per square metre, though it is fairer to say the two cities are neck-and-neck.

London residential property prices have fallen for much of 2008, while Moscow property price declines only started in the last quarter, allowing Moscow to catch up with London. Both countries have experienced strong currency declines.

[andrbea] 03/3/2009 09:37

March 2

MOSCOW - Russia's finance minister predicted the national economy will grow 2 to 3 percent in 2010, after a 2.2 percent decline this year, but warned that Russia is not likely to profit from lofty oil prices in the near term. The budget deficit - now projected at 8 percent of GDP this year - should drop to 3 percent in 2011, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin added. Russian GDP contracted by 8.8 percent in January compared with a year earlier. Unemployment rates are soaring and the ruble has lost one-third of its value since September

[andrbea] 03/3/2009 08:33

having completed projects and rents coming in isn't always plain sailing..

[andrbea] 03/3/2009 07:22

many of your arguments are valid

your conclusion should not be to invest here

good luck elsewhere

& tks for your input

[darcon] 03/3/2009 00:42

With all due respect page 11 of their presentation is not that exciting. And I will only look at their One year plan as the current market is not in a mood to look any further.

- "Execution of current projects" - statement out of date as projects on hold to conserve cash

- "Acquiring additional $100m financing" - I assume the prospect of obtaining this additional financing is dead in the current market

- "Pre-selling of apartments in Khilkov and Chelsea" - I would be sceptical of their ability to pre-sell in the current environment. Any retail consumer who pre-buys from a developer without certainty of financing in the current market needs their head examined. The Russians like to throw their cash but they are equally good and cutting expenditure back in a crisis

- "Pre-selling with the obligation to complete of one of the office developments" - similar points to above. I have heard from property professionals in Moscow that a lot of office developments have recently come to market. If we start to see companies unable to refinance their debt (a big problem for many Russian companies) then termination of tenancies will follow and heavy reductions in the rent paid and desire of potential tenants to be pre-sold

- "Completion of Tsvetnoy and potential disposal" - well, with projects on hold what is the likelihood of this?


So my "back of napkin" conclusion is that there isn't much to be excited about RGI at the moment, although I admit this five minute analysis is not detailed.

So the question is will RGI be around when the market recovers? And will its projects still be viable when that happens or will the Moscow City Govt cancel withdraw permission (it is entitled to do so if RGI doesnt meet its development obligations) or will it have to sell its best projects to raise cash to complete its smaller ones or will the shareholders get massively diluted at the next capital-raising, etc, etc

[darcon] 02/3/2009 19:26

Yes, but do RGI have income producing completed projects on their books? Didn't they put their development pipeline on hold in order to conserve cash? How are they going to complete the projects they were planning without loan finance being forthcoming?

There are lots of Russian real estate developers now searching for funds, except that only players that can tell a story about picking up "distressed assets" on the cheap are likely to have any success at the moment in raising such funds.

And if RGI can't complete their projects then how are they going to retain and motivate staff who may choose to go to their competitors, etc

[andrbea] 02/3/2009 14:43

comparing the 3 London-listed property plays in Russia

mld 59m mkt cap
rus 61m mkt cap
rgi 15m mkt cap

nia dyor

rgi has a nav/share of USD 16

SP is much too low for rgi IMO

[andrbea] 02/3/2009 12:20

spread has tightened to 0.12-013
maybe the MMs want to play ball at last!

had been horrendous before that:

was 0.11 - 014 and 0.13 - 0.16

[pelleeds1980] 02/3/2009 12:04

Ticked up again

[andrbea] 02/3/2009 11:56

431k traded

[pelleeds1980] 02/3/2009 11:26

Gone into auction - hows the volume today?

[andrbea] 02/3/2009 10:28

3-month chart suggests a rise (having reached the floor again)
last time it rose to above 0.40$ (Dec 2008)


nia dyor

[andrbea] 02/3/2009 09:19

up 20% today
on the back of 1 small trade

should be much higher IMO

see p12 of this PDF for prediction of NAV progression



nia dyor