Rio Tinto Share Discussion Threads

[ian davenport] 14/2/2017 12:04

Malcommm - the price will dip on XD, but usually when Rio is on a roll it will open at 105p lower, but make some of that back within 20 mins or so - and then it depends on the state of the general market and mining sector ( not always the same) for that day

[keya5000] 14/2/2017 11:48

SF87 is the product to take advantage here chaps.

[christh] 14/2/2017 11:42

trying to go higher, all commodities high today.
It should close around £36.95 and tomorrow will carry on rising probably
£37.90 - £38.30.

Reason iron ore demand and price rises.

[christh] 14/2/2017 10:50

Rio Tinto uptrend looks set to continue, says Zak Mir

The Rio Tinto PLC (LON:RIO) share price is set to continue its recent momentum and could close in on the £40 mark, according to technical analyst Zak Mir.

“The big turnaround came around the end of June last year with the break through the 200-day moving average and then the higher low for September underpinning the uptrend,” Mir explains in the latest Proactive Investors Tip TV Bulletin Board segment.

“We’re in a rising trend channel which we can draw from June. The top of the channel is probably heading as high as £38 or £39 and that’s the target for the next two to three months.”

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/6742/rio-tinto-uptrend-looks-set-to-continue-says-zak-mir-6742.html

[christh] 14/2/2017 10:42

the main driver is iron ore and Rio's iron ore is good quality type which is less pollutant and is in great demand in China and worlwide.
The price is over $90 per metric tonne and according to experts heading above
$100 per metric tonne.
The cost to produce for Rio is $18 per metric tonne , so the the rest is profit.

I see the price heading above £40 and may hit £45.

[malcolmmm] 14/2/2017 09:57

christh, Thanks, nice div . hopefully the share price wont dip xd

[christh] 14/2/2017 09:51

MALCOLMMM 14 Feb '17 - 09:26 - 917 of 917
Ex on the 23rd Feb

yes, it's 105.6p divi. that is £1.056 which is good and getting better in August as the more profits it makes the better the return.
Iron ore prices will increase the profits and raise the dividends.

[malcolmmm] 14/2/2017 09:26

Ex on the 23rd Feb

[christh] 14/2/2017 08:49

Also see


Chinese commodity futures are still going nuts, led yet again by iron ore


Iron ore price: China imports top 1 billion tonnes for first time



China's seaborne iron ore demand from 2011 to 2017 (in million metric tons)*

[christh] 14/2/2017 08:23

Iron ore price surges past $US90, continues to surprise analysts


By Graeme Powell
Updated about an hour ago

Related Story: Rio Tinto steps up production as iron ore prices surge


The price of iron ore continues to defy market expectations, surging past $US90 a tonne for the first time in more than two years.
Key points:

Iron ore price has surpassed $US90 for the first time since August 2014
Share prices of WA iron ore companies have jumped sharply in recent months
WA Premier Colin Barnett says "I told you so" after arguing industry would recover

The iron ore spot price jumped $US5.61 overnight and is now trading at $US92.23 a tonne.

It is the first time the price has climbed beyond the $US90 mark since August 2014.

The Federal Government had forecast iron ore prices to average $US55 a tonne in 2016-2017.

The current high prices are expected to add billions of dollars in tax receipts for the federal and state governments.

In another development, the price of iron ore contracts traded on the Dalian exchange hit $US101.76 a tonne.

The higher prices have seen the share prices of iron ore companies in Western Australia jump sharply in recent months.

Shares in the Perth-based Fortescue Metals Group rose more than 6 per cent or 40 cents on Monday, to trade at $6.88.

Perth-based mining analyst Peter Strachan said a number of low-quality iron ore mines in China had closed, but that still did not explain the continuing surge in prices.

"There's around 130 to 140 million tonnes of capacity in China that has been closed down and they are preferring to buy the higher grade iron ore from Australia because they are lower polluting and cheaper to put through their steel mills," he said.

"But despite that, when you tumble the numbers there's about 70 million tonnes a year net surplus of iron ore in the market, so it appears the Chinese are building some sort of stock pile that's perhaps for their own national security reasons."

Mr Strachan said everyone, including the Federal Government, had been surprised by the surge in iron ore prices and he had now given up trying to forecast the price of the commodity.

"If you just look at supply and demand you'd expect that the iron ore price would be back below $70 a tonne," he said.

"But here we are knocking on the door of $100 a tonne."
'I told you so': Barnett

WA Premier Colin Barnett used the rallying iron ore price to reaffirm his long-held position that the industry would recover.

"I hesitate to say I told you so," Mr Barnett said.

"All the commentators in Canberra and on the east coast wrote off the resources industry. I never did."

Mr Barnett said the surge in the commodity would help with the state's finances.
Iron ore price surges past $US90, continues to surprise analysts


Only last week, the Under Treasurer handed a blow to the Government ahead of the election, forecasting WA's deficit would reach $3 billion this financial year and predicting the return to surplus would take longer than anticipated.

"I think this is probably a little bit of a spike but nevertheless the price is strong, the demand is strong," Mr Barnett said.

"This will contribute very much to reducing the deficit we face, no doubt about it. But the fundamental issue for Western Australia is a fair deal on the GST."

However, Mr Strachan said it was not going to be a good thing if iron ore stayed at such a high price — saying for the market to be in balance, it needed to remain between $US40 and $US80 a tonne.

"So somewhere in between there is a happy medium, where the suppliers can continue to supply but not bring in more capacity into the market," he said.

[christh] 14/2/2017 08:18

£40 here we come.
the momentum is strong.
The iron ore price rise will strengthen the balance sheet and help with the share
buyback.

[keya5000] 13/2/2017 15:47

Malcomm I am hoping for £50 within 18 months.

That would give me a 20 bagger on the original purchase.

[christh] 13/2/2017 15:45

It might rest around 36.70 the way it goes....

[christh] 13/2/2017 15:43

strange though this morning went up and then dropped below 3600.
I take it a lot of profitaking but let's see where it ends.
if the profit takers leave it alone then is plain sailing

[malcolmmm] 13/2/2017 15:39

If it carries on at the rate its going now you wont have to wait 18months

[keya5000] 13/2/2017 15:31

I have been buying SF87 for leverage here.

Will be great if RIO goes plus £40 in the next eighteen months.

Check out the ticker and product.

Gives massive leverage to RIO and more so when it moves above £40

[christh] 13/2/2017 15:20

likely to hit £38 tomorrow.
Momentum very strong.

[christh] 13/2/2017 11:05

New upgrade
------------------------
Date...........Broker.............recommendation......New target price...Notes
13 Feb 17....RBC Capital Markets....Outperform.........4000.00......Reiterates


from 3700.00 to 4000.00

link here

[christh] 13/2/2017 10:57

Surging Iron Ore Won’t ‘Fall Off a Cliff,’ Says Rio Tinto
by David Stringer and Haidi Lun
13 February 2017, 00:25 GMT 13 February 2017, 05:29 GMT

Rio CFO says China in fundamental shift to less-polluting ore
2nd-biggest miner sees robust growth to continue in China

Iron ore will defy forecasts for a dramatic price collapse as China’s economy remains strong and the top buyer boosts demand for higher-quality imports, according to Rio Tinto Group, the 2nd-largest exporter.

“I wouldn’t necessarily say that it’s going to fall off a cliff,” Chief Financial Officer Chris Lynch said Monday in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Daybreak Australia. “I guess the key issue is that we have to be robust in case the price goes up, down or sideways, and that’s what we set out our business to do.”

Global exporters are benefiting as mills in China, the world’s top steelmaker, increasingly prefer higher-quality raw materials as they seek to raise efficiency and cut pollution, according to Lynch. Iron ore, which accounted for about 60% of Rio’s profits last year, soared in 2016 to defy predictions that rising supply would overwhelm demand.

“There’s another fundamental shift going on in China and that’s the preference for the more efficient and less polluting end of the industry,” Lynch said in the interview. The switch by mills to higher-quality imports will support Rio and other exporters, while China’s growth becomes less reliant on commodities as it balances toward consumption and services from a focus on infrastructure and construction, he said.

The raw material, trading at the highest in more than 2 years as stimulus in China has supported steel output and consumption, is poised to correct sharply in the second half on rising supply from Australia and Brazil, according to Citigroup Inc. Prices will fall each quarter this year to $55 a ton in the final three months, according to the median of 13 analysts’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

Iron ore will plunge back below $50 a metric ton as an extra 90 million tons of seaborne ore hits the market in 2017 with holdings at China’s ports are already at an all-time high, Liberum Capital Ltd. analyst Richard Knights said last week in an interview.

“We like the idea of higher prices, but there’s not a lot you can do about it,” Lynch said. “I can’t give you any justification for why it’s $2 higher today than it was yesterday.”

China’s imports jumped to an all-time high of more than 1 billion tons last year. Stockpiles rose 2.8% last week to a record 127 million tons, Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. said Monday.

Ore with 62% content in Qingdao advanced 3.3% Friday to $86.62 a dry ton, the highest since September 2014, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. Rio advanced 3.6% to A$68.32 in Sydney trading Monday.

Higher prices are boosting earnings for the top producers including Rio, which last week reported its first annual profit gain since 2013, though the company has maintained its disciplined approached to acquisitions, according to Lynch. It has looked at “a hell of a lot” and a lot more than than “we’ll ever pull the trigger on,” he said.

“We looked at a lot of things, there was a lot of stress on a lot of our competitors through the early part of last year,” Lynch said. “Notwithstanding the drop in market caps, the enterprise value didn’t change that much given that the debt was still there at 100 cents in the dollar.”

While London-based Rio sees “a fairly robust future in China,” the producer is no longer focused as exclusively on the nation in its demand outlook, according to Lynch.
Higher infrastructure spending under President Donald Trump and faster approvals for projects in the U.S. are both potential positives for Rio, he said.

interview and story

[christh] 13/2/2017 09:01

Consensus recommendation
As of Feb 11, 2017, the consensus forecast amongst 28 polled investment analysts covering Rio Tinto plc advises that the company will outperform the market. This has been the consensus forecast since the sentiment of investment analysts improved on Dec 05, 2016. The previous consensus forecast advised investors to hold their position in Rio Tinto plc.

Dividends
In 2016, Rio Tinto PLC reported a dividend of 1.66 USD, which represents a 22.91% decrease from last year. The 24 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 2.04 USD for the upcoming fiscal year, an increase of 23.08%.

[christh] 13/2/2017 08:10

will it get to £38 today?

the momentum is strong, the Dow will push it further.

Will it make the target of £44.90 that Barclays has set?

It certainly has strengthened its management, the debt is coming down, the share buyback, the mines keep producing well.

So not a black cloud in the horizon.

Also the dividend is good 100.056p (£1.056p)...and rising on the interims and
next year.

[christh] 11/2/2017 11:10

Date ..........Broker ............Recommendation ........New target price ........Notes
10 Feb 17 ........HSBC ................... Buy ............. 4000.00 .......Reiterates
09 Feb 17 .......JP Morgan Cazenove ..... Overweight.. ..4000.00 ....Reiterates
09 Feb 17 ........Deutsche Bank .............Buy ..............4000.00 .....Reiterates
06 Feb 17 ........ Macquarie ...............Outperform ......4300.00 ..... Reiterates
26 Jan 17 ........Barclays Capital ...........Overweight .....4490.00 .... Reiterates


general consensus £40 and over

[bookbroker] 11/2/2017 11:04

Interesting moves here, the concern here would be can China maintain its growth rate, they are importing more iron ore, more capacity coming on stream globally 2017, difficult to believe the fall from 2015 to early 2016, but in the process this chart has large gaps all the way back to £24, if filling those gaps is a feature in analysis this stock could easily fall back and in fill at some point, but momentum appears very strong, but then the global economy has become increasingly volatile, and I just don't believe that China can maintain its stellar growth rate, the debt to GDP is 240%, and that is just staggering for an economy that size, and its current state of development. There will be a point where the banking system comes under enormous pressure somewhere down the line, the Govt. simply cannot continue to underwrite the economy there, the larger it gets, rates will have to rise again sooner rather than later, the policy makers are stuck between a rock and a hard place!