Restaurant Share Discussion Threads

[thevaluehunter] 08/9/2016 14:34

Don't forget the virtual monopoly the TRG has at airport catering and dining. These sites are highly lucrative!

[adobbing] 08/9/2016 13:15

Brunning and Price have opened far more than 4 pubs since 2014, so your figures calculated from the reports are wrong.

I have a list of openings somewhere and will dig it out.

are a Restaurant Group company with 7 outlets.

[sharw] 08/9/2016 12:36

TRG Annual reports:

2014 3 pub restaurants opened making 52

2015 3 pub restaurants opened 1 closed making 54

2016 interim report states "..at 3 July 2016 ... 56 pub restaurants"

So I don't see where you get your 50% from.

For the a/cs Blubeckers still exists, Home Counties Pubs does not although there is a Home County Pubs Ltd owned by Alastair and Anna Bramley, whoever they are.

[adobbing] 08/9/2016 11:57

Blubeckers no longer exists, most were converted over to Brunning and price, the remainder now form their other pub company "Home Counties Pubs", a few were sold.
Since 2014 Brunning and Price has grown significantly, with probably 50% more outlets.
These are far bigger, busier high end and more profitable than F&B or Chiquitos outlets.
There have been several openings already this year, with one opening in the next month and at least 3 more soon.
Brunning and Pruce is not the company it was in 2014!

[sharw] 08/9/2016 11:12

Agree that B&P is a better performing part of the group but you have to put it in context. In 2014 (later figures not yet available) B&P made a PTP of £4.17m. Blubeckers, the other part of the pubs business, made £342k. Added together that is just 5.8% of the pre-exceptional group profit of £78m.

[gutbuster] 08/9/2016 10:10

Couldn't agree more!

[adobbing] 08/9/2016 09:24

Thanks, as I've said before this was massively oversold as an overreaction.
They've recognised issues at F&B and reacted promptly.
Their future is the B&P pub business which continues to develop whilst astonishingly escaping most "so called" analysts attention.
I think there will also be a transition of F&B outlets into Coast to Coast, Joes etc.


Most of the analysts reports I've seen are complete rubbish and consist of generic cut and paste comments that are probably applied universally.
They got it wrong before the profit warning and have got it wrong since.

[philanderer] 08/9/2016 08:37

Good call adobbing :-)

edit:

Nick Bubb ‏@NickBubb1 2 hours ago Cagliari, Sardinia

"Thus far, we continue to see no detectable impact of the Brexit vote on consumer behaviour in the UK": Seb James of Dixons Catphone

[henrik viking] 07/9/2016 15:51

Adobbing
Not sure we will see such a move , but I would agree It is not impossible to have such a bounce , as the new CEO starts Monday week.
However ... Several of the latest buy notes was issued as a result of his appointment and hence one or two of the brokers was perhaps acting with a view of becoming his new best friend .
There will be provisions / write offs and most likely a rights issue later on.
Hence the some of the brokers smell corporate activity , because once we see the price back at 300 -320 level , the M&A boys will arrive.

[adobbing] 07/9/2016 14:23

Back towards £4 and beyond!

[thevaluehunter] 06/9/2016 21:17

Barclaycard reports consumer spending for restaurants up 12.8% and pubs up 12.2%. I think the next peach tracker report should be a good read.

hxxps://www.home.barclaycard/news/consumer-spending-reaches-13-month-high-as-shoppers-enjoy-best-of-british-summer.html

[philanderer] 06/9/2016 17:00

RTN and ABF the only blue ones for me today.

[philanderer] 06/9/2016 09:24

Thanks henrik :-)

[henrik viking] 06/9/2016 01:36

Philanderer

Good luck with the retail exposure.
However I do feel it will be a quarter of marging pressure per square footage / closure of excess stores etc , as consumers shopping pattern / behaviour continues to change as the actual shopping experience will be a combination of viewing on site and on line, with the latter being the preferred way of shopping .
Gap recently had another miss in the US and it will not stop there.
Marks after today's announcement will have much more work on the online platform and they need to hire the right people to do so .
Perhaps they should all move their HQ to Dublin , I hear they have a reasonable
Tax regime

[philanderer] 05/9/2016 18:04

sharw, I`m not sure I`d call Britvic a retail stock but I see what you mean :-)

British Aerospace definitely isn`t and AB Foods has a fair contribution from Sugar; Agriculture; Grocery; and Ingredients.

But yes , easier to keep your eye on retail and easier to understand :-)

[sharw] 05/9/2016 16:42

Yes - the next piece of blood letting will, I suspect, be Chiquito. In the interim results they announced the immediate closure of 14 F&Bs (of 261 = 5.4%) and 11 Cs (of 86 = 12.8%). I pointed out earlier the rise of Las Iguanas which had popped up almost next to Chiquito in a cinema-centred leisure complex.

philanderer - with the exception of BA. all retail stocks - is that because you like to look at them as you stroll up and down the High St.?

Edit - just found this:


A Las Iguanas has opened within a stone's throw of all three. I rest my case! (To be fair, so have lots of other competitors).

[philanderer] 05/9/2016 15:24

Pretty much agree with that scenario.

[henrik viking] 05/9/2016 15:18

Back to RTN
The key is that the management made it very clear that there could/will be
Further provisions to be made .
Divi will be held , this time !

New CEO will make a lot of tough decisions but RTN will never have the market share they enjoyed under the management of
Page / Christoph.
The company will be acquired not just yet, some of the business is very dated. Look at Franca Manca fantastic timing and was subsequently acquired.

[henrik viking] 05/9/2016 14:41

Sorry forgot
WTI futures

[henrik viking] 05/9/2016 14:41

PS
Great short pre midday when the Russians and the Saudi's announced a press conference ..

[henrik viking] 05/9/2016 14:34

Philanderer
Good exit on the Euro,
Today's by election in Germany is just the start.
Potentially re vote in Austria , Far right party most likely to win.
Italian vote, constitutional referendum on various reforms .
Far right party gaining ground and could cause Italian PM to resign if vote against him.vote trigger off a EU vote .
Continue to short the Euro vs USD
Short Rand vs USD/GBP
Short AUD vs USD

Long oil service / equipment companies .
Short European Markets ( non UK)

[philanderer] 05/9/2016 14:17

henrik, mainly purely as income plays. I`m cautious on everything hence 80% cash.

Main trade this year was changing all my cash into Euro in 2015 when € = 73p and changing back again two weeks ago with € = 85p .

Well pleased :-)

edit:

Also been lucky with bids coming in for ARM and PLND

[henrik viking] 05/9/2016 14:00

Interesting list .
Would be very cautious now with regards to Leisure and the retail sector.
Ps short the Rand again vs GBP , downgrade to junk status
Imminent .

[philanderer] 04/9/2016 23:52

Agree imranawan, not looking at much at all. .. 80% cash at the moment. Added to my BA. holding last week.

Holding:

ABF
BA.
BRBY
BVIC
DOM
GRG
MKS
PPB
RTN