Resaca Share Discussion Threads

[mdchand] 21/7/2009 15:15

re the oil price - its a finite commodity facing infinite demand - at some point demand will exceed supply and whatever the short term over-supply issues, will easily and permanently be exceeded by demand. $40 a barrel by xmas - not bloody likely. Saudi's can cut demand if they think the world is awash with oil and let's not forget that raw crude oil is only worth something when its refined and based on the substantial cut backs seen in oil refinery maintenance expenditure these last few years, any increase in demand for refined crude will not be easily met.

[bruno124] 21/7/2009 09:40

Strong note from RBC today. 100p target price

[davidhp] 17/7/2009 15:47

Yeah, yeah ... Oil forcasts from MorganStanley; Same guy said $200 soon early summer 2008 then $20 soon this February 2009.

HOWEVER...

Read *THIS* guy's statements carefully. I think US Advisor PHILIP VERLEGER may be onto something. The current overhang in oil supply is colossal. Full tankers are sitting in ports, filled to the brim with unsold oil because a CONTANGO has developed (Google it!) and with commodity trading/speculation about to be restricted in the major trading centres, this is bad news for the oil price.

There is currently (July2009) a crude oil surplus in storage of 100 million barrels!
And storage is RUNNING OUT! What then?

For more info re. the US OIL INVENTORY REPORT;


Worrying stuff!

Add in the facts that OPEC cannot control the supply (and so the price), Russia is still outside OPEC & pumping like billy-o and the Chinese growth in auto sales ISN'T going to be able to absorb all the world extra gasoline... and we have a big fall in the oil price coming.

Most of the current price buoyancy has been because the us dollar is collapsing in true value (compare it's movements to the oil price!).

There *may* be something to be said for a sub-$40 oil price by the Northern Winter season. If it is mild as expected... El nino, et al.

Anyone care to comment?

DYOR

[xclusive2] 17/7/2009 13:51

Oil forecasts ! what a load of tosh. Those short will sing their song and conversely the longs will sing theirs. GSachs are currently long as with many other IB's ! They will short it and as you are getting on the bandwagon, they are already going long and benefitting on the short squeeze on the return leg...lol.

Smarty

[pugugly] 17/7/2009 09:40

DavidHP:. Thanks - You have reinforced my doubts.

Also may interest all Bloobberg article below "

oil at $20 a barrel possilbe by year end"

[xclusive2] 16/7/2009 16:51

My broker was rather eager to relieve me of my stock allocation. I think it's time to sit tight here and hopefully enjoy the ride.

Smarty

[pelleeds1980] 16/7/2009 15:45

The fall in Oct 08 from 120 ish down to 70 was that a genuine drop or due to consolidation etc?

I know that was the eye of the storm but looks a bit drastic

[targatarga] 16/7/2009 15:43

mm's are willing to pay above the ask. Broker wanted me to sell at 35p. Whats the rush if these are only going one way!

[davidhp] 14/7/2009 16:02

As I see it, here's the problems with RSOX.

a) "In January of 2008, Haas Petroleum Engineering Services valued Resaca's reserves. Utilizing NYMEX commodity price assumptions of $95.98 for oil and $7.48 for natural gas and discounting at 10%, Haas valued Resaca's "2P" reserves at $423 million"

Well, sadly for the industry oil is now south of $60 and I re-value the "2P" reserves at a 'rough'

(423 / 95.98) * 60.00 giving $264 million (given a similar percentage fall for gas as oil... which is fair)

This halves the share price ceiling IMHO from roughly 150p to 75p... we are at a 50%+ discount to that... roughly in line with other larger oilers at the moment (2009July14).


b) Nobody trusts the americans right now to be fair, honest nor law abiding and to be honest many have the appearance of crooks in the eyes of international investors... burnt fingers promote long memories!


c) If I hadn't seen them in IC, I wouldn't have heard of them. The phrase "boiler room" springs to mind but who can be sure with american small-caps?


d) RSOX financing involves the american finance giant, CIT, which is in the last throes of some kind of painful death at the moment... and while a bailout might be on the cards by the panic-striken us government looking to secure the 300,000 jobs sheltering beneath the teetering CIT, nothing can be certain in this climate. The Chinese won't be pleased and since they own the usa right now, via a t*sticle in iron fist combo (50points), further bailouts may not be issued.


e) If institutions are dumping RSOX, given they 'appear' at least 50% undervalued, you gotta ask yourself, "What DON'T we know that they 'know' or suspect?"


f) ALL their production is in the usa and the usa is, AS THE CHAIRMAN ALLUDES IN HIS REPORT, appearing to teeter on the brink of high oil industry taxation, fiscal collapse and market destruction. If they had overseas production, Asian or European, I'd be tempted to be perfectly honest.


IMHonestO I am keeping them in my list but not putting my hard earned their way until at least the CIT issue looks like its near a solution. But that's just me...

DYOR

[pugugly] 12/7/2009 20:53

Just come back to this as a result of the IC buy recommendation (usually KoD) after my post 18.

Main concern is how much of the oil in place is actually recoverable with the enhanced processes.

Reminds me a bit of TXO where there was msssive hope a few years back, and where management supplied most of the remediation work through their private company.

Or again Frontera Resources where the price has steadily gone south as management have failed to deliver.

Anyone more knowledgeable on remediation have an expert view on realistic yields and costs? As only made a profit through a very wise use of hedges., but a profit is a profit.

[nigelsom] 11/7/2009 15:40

Cheers for that Bruno. Let's hope that easier trading will increase the interest level. Might just bag a few more if it goes on normal trading (& the share price doesn;t move a long way north of here).

[bruno124] 10/7/2009 11:12

Reg S will be removed in about 2 weeks which should free up some liquiidty in these. Several brokers can't/won't deal in certificated stock for thier clients which is the case at present.

[nigelsom] 10/7/2009 09:56

Seems to have been tipped today by teh IC. Anyone got the gist?

[targatarga] 10/7/2009 09:05

looks like were stuck in the 30p - 60p range

[pelleeds1980] 08/7/2009 09:40

Acquisition of assets so looking to the future...

[alex_raga] 03/7/2009 15:10

are thinks looking good for the future of the company.
have read the article seems ok,.

[half man half codpiece] 03/7/2009 09:04

Good start this morning. Shares magazine must have hit the newstands.

[ghhghh] 02/7/2009 10:47

MM

Yes but imo better value elsewhere.


Why buy cash when you can buy good assets at greater discount? And hope for takeover.


But accepted the cash still has good buying power.

Cheers



Paul

[themoneymonster2] 02/7/2009 10:42

Paul

Are you in GBP?

They have cash of around 7.5p plus other assets.

Regards

[bruno124] 02/7/2009 10:27

Can anyone paste the Shares article in?
Thx

[ghhghh] 02/7/2009 08:14

Good two page article on Resaca in Shares Magazine today.

Surprised not created more buying interest.

[jailbird] 02/7/2009 07:52

well that has resolved my concern

[half man half codpiece] 01/7/2009 18:53

Poised to gap up