Regal Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[j drama] 12/3/2014 06:55

Some shares moving around yesterday, 100k on broker to broker trade.
Someone building or extending a stake?

[j drama] 10/3/2014 20:57

No Energees ended the sole sales agreement a while back.

[n13518] 10/3/2014 13:04

I thought all gas extracted by RPT is sold to FXPO? I don't know if the contract is fixed or variable? We are in a catch 22 and can't win whatever is decided about Crimeia.

[buywell2] 09/3/2014 06:00

How much left now ?

buywell2 6 Sep'13 - 07:36 - 13912 of 14131 edit

Will the next stage be administration ?



J Drama 6 Sep'13 - 10:38 - 13913 of 14131

What with $30m+ cash in the bank,I doubt it.


Chart confirms Oilies are amongst the most optimistic/(Gullible) of stock punters




Research into where/what countries these companies operate , and the political risks involved might also be worthwhile along with macros that will affect commodities going forwards

[j drama] 09/3/2014 03:28

The discount referred to above is probably the one that was reported as dropping the gas price from $450 m3 to $365m3 that was introduced from 1st January this year.
Unless Russia gets what it wants i.e Crimea under it's control permanently I can only see prices rising further. The $450m3 was apparently heavily subsidised by the Ukrainian government to it's people, sending the country broke & requiring an IMF bailout.

The speed at which the IMF moves I can see the gas being turned off this week from Russia (for non payment).

If only Energees could get the gas out of the ground!!

[j drama] 07/3/2014 21:49

'Gazprom has already said it will end the substantial discount that Ukraine receives on market gas prices from April.'

Some positive news for RPT.
Gazprom threatening to cut off Ukraine gas supply.
hxxp://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/3/8/european-crisis/gazprom-warns-ukraine-gas-export-cut

[jam2day] 04/3/2014 16:34

In the circumstances this has held up well.Note the reference to tight gas fields in northweast Ukraine i.e. not east Ukraine

Ukraine Crisis Creates New Challenges For E&Ps Battling To Build A Business In The Region
04 Mar 2014 by Amy McLellan

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Russians move into Crimea
Russians move into Crimea
Ukraine Crisis Creates New Challenges For E&Ps Battling To Build A Business In The RegionBy Our Oilbarrel StaffAs Russia tightens its military grip on Ukraine's Crimea region, ignoring Western outcry at Moscow's "violation of Ukraine's sovereignty", life just got a bit harder for the E&Ps already battling to make headway in the region. Big Oil is in there, of course – Shell last year signed a US$10 billion shale gas deal with the Ukrainian government while on the other side of the border BP is a big shareholder in Rosneft, which has exploration joint ventures with ExxonMobil, ENI and Statoil in the Arctic and Shell partners Gazprom at Sakhalin in the Far East - but they have the financial muscle and portfolio depth to weather any fall out from the heightened tensions between Kiev and Moscow.For smaller companies, any escalation in what UK foreign secretary William Hague has called the "biggest crisis" to face Europe in the 21st Century, could be disastrous: when the Arab awakening first spread to Syria, who would have thought that three years later AIM-quoted Gulfsands Petroleum, which had been buoyed by its two prolific oil discoveries in the northeast of the country, would have been forced to withdraw due to EU sanctions and rebuild a portfolio almost from scratch?Hopefully, the stand-off in Crimea can be resolved without further escalation. But companies working in a region that already comes with a high political risk profile for corruption and debilitating political and legal battles, are already feeling some pain on the stock price. Shares in London-listed JKX, which has faced its share of challenges to become the largest non-state producer of oil and gas in Ukraine, were down nine per cent in morning trading at 56 pence, whilst long-suffering Regal Petroleum, the AIM-quoted E&P developing tight gas fields in northweast Ukraine, lost another six per cent to 11 pence. At the time of writing, the TSX Venture exchange had yet to open to reveal whether investors in Ukraine-focused Cub Energy were worried about the crisis. Companies with exposure to Russia were also hit. AIM-quoted PetroNeft, which after a few tough years has finally seen a breakthrough at its oilfields in Western Siberia, was down more than 12 per cent in morning trading at 6.10 pence, Volga Gas was down almost four per cent, while Zoltav Resources remains suspended pending publication of an admission document for its most recent acquisition. Ruspetro, listed on the main market, was down almost ten per cent.On the wider financial markets, pain is already being inflicted: Moscow's main MICEX index dropped nine per cent in early trading and the rouble fell to a new low against the US dollar. Oil prices were up on the news, with Brent again north of US$110 a barrel.

[scorpione] 03/3/2014 11:04

Hopefully all this will be resolved peacefully; however, if it gets ugly and east and west end up split would that not be bad news for us considering Russia's A1 involvement?

[jam2day] 03/3/2014 10:46

Regal,s fields would be designated politically as being in west ukraine.

[n13518] 03/3/2014 10:26

I was trying to work out where the oil production region of Dnieper-Donets was and how the current stand-off in Ukraine between Russian speaking Crimeans and Kiev but I was not able to on the maps I had seen on internet.

Any thoughts?

[j drama] 25/2/2014 07:12

Interesting pick up in volume recently.

[j drama] 23/2/2014 22:52

A move towards the EU will mean higher gas prices & will therefore be beneficial to RPT.
The concern is that the country slits, either amicably or violently, between East (Russian) & West (EU).

As for less corruption I doubt it, don't forget the deal Alberry deal RPT did was under the pro EU Orange revolution government!

[j drama] 21/2/2014 22:36

OIL AND GAS
'October 23, 2013
 
Regal Petroleum possesses an efficient funding and resource base to support its further development, with 31.6 MMboe in 2P reserves and a USD 26.8mn cash balance as of 30 Jun 2013. The company intends to complete the drilling of a new well, SV-59, by the end of this year, and natural gas should start flowing in 1Q14. We see the completion of the new well as a turnaround point for the long decline in the company's output. We expect Regal to double its output in 2014 to near 2,800 boepd, helping it to post EBITDA of USD 31mn. We retain our BUY recommendation for the RPT stock, but since the company's development has been slower than promised, we lower our target price for the issue to GBp 42.0 per share, which implies an upside of 172%. Our previous target price, set in 2011, was GBp 94.0.'

Current Eavex view on RPT, seems a bit fanciful to me!
How much of the 1,550 boepd increase was supposed to come from SV-59 that only yielded 10% of that number? 500 boepd?
Presumably the balance was supposed to come from fraccing existing wells?

IMO if (huge if!) RPT got to 2,800 boepd 42p seems a realistic target. I'd be happy to take that & move on.
hxxp://www.eavex.com.ua/research/all-reports/regal-petroleum-possesses-an-efficient-funding-and/

[j drama] 09/2/2014 00:03

Of course anything is possible in a corrupt country but the numbers reported by RPT are substantiated by those reported through the country's gas production figures.

To me the wells drilled are mimicing those drilled by RPT pre the Greer 'special completion technique' that had more success than standard techiques which I suspect they are now using.

I guess we'll see later this year by what Energees planned to do next with their development plan. Continuing to drill more & more wells in exactly the same way would support your theory. A change in tactic or a sell out wouldn't.

I'd like to see A1 getting more involved in putting pressure on Energees.

[j drama] 07/2/2014 21:53

I can't disagree with that, at the moment however I have little faith Energees can even get the production back to pre shutdown levels 1,750 boep.

3 wells drilled, cost $30m+, 154 boepd added.
1 well fracced, cost $m?, zero boepd added.
3 (or it 4 wells?) worked over, cost $m?, zero boepd added.
Compression equipment added, cost $m?, immaterial boepd added.

Energees have probably spent $50m+ since being in charge & the production has fallen around 30%.
In fact in the last 2 years the only positive thing Energees has contributed is getting the LPG recovery up & running!

[n13518] 07/2/2014 12:26

JD

Accepted. I was using an average predicted futures price of £111/boe for 2014.
My point was that 154boe equivalent is better than coming out empty handed.

We need the production to be pushed backup to pre-taker over levels and target of 5,000.

N

[j drama] 06/2/2014 22:05

N13518
Your calculation is a bit off.
The 154 boepd includes the gas & condensate, RPT doesn't get $100 per boe of gas (boe relates to energy content not price).
In fact we currently don't know what RPT is getting for it's gas after the recent deal with Russians, likely around $365 per m3.
Condensate is sold at close to oil price.

The LPG has however just added approx $3.2m of annual revenue.

[j drama] 06/2/2014 21:59

If they spent no money on development activities then production would fall even faster & they'd be losing money rather than making it.

[llamarama] 06/2/2014 13:30

154 boepd in total. No "plus gas" but minus royalties, OPEX and admin costs.

Comically inept. Best company in history at throwing cash into the ground.

Its share price will soar if it simply commits to stop doing any more development activities.

[n13518] 06/2/2014 12:26

I share the frustrations 154/day * 365 = 56210 x $100 barrell of oil = $5.6m dollars and plus gas. Don't knock it.