Real Good Food Share Discussion Threads

[mutantpoodle] 07/2/2014 17:16

the interests of the private investor are not considered by any of the quoted companies whatever they may claim! the free lunch brigade are the only ones looked after.

[typo56] 07/2/2014 16:10

With that percentage of shares in the hands of a supplier and the board of an AIM company, do you seriously think that the interests of the private investor are going to be high on the agenda? How competitive is the supplier agreement going to be with them as a major shareholder and with a place on the RGD board? Surely a 'related party transaction'?

[140661] 07/2/2014 15:59

Space, I agree that Omnicane have been active buyers of the shares and this has helped the share price. Personally, i expect them to push on top 30% and then it will get interesting. I expect to see an offer at 150p plus within two years.

[spaceparallax] 07/2/2014 11:19

Were it not for Omnicane's interest here the share price would be substantially lower. It'll be interesting to see how their position develops and whether they're looking to make an offer.

[briangeeee] 07/2/2014 11:12

I must say that the reaction to poor interims, followed by what reads like a current year profits warning is odd, and personally I'm very disappointed. Much of the talk at the AGM was about NB were pretty immune to the down-turn in European sugar prices. In fact they indicated that they stood to benefit, as they'd locked in sales in a falling market, and were delaying purchases to maximise margin. That sort of activity is clearly speculative, and not what I feel they should be doing. Perhaps it's backfired somehow.
Anyway, it feels like buyers of the share are either looking further forward than the current year, or there's some other reason they're buying stock. In such situations it's probably best to sit on your hands!

[140661] 07/2/2014 10:07

Agreed PT is an eternal optimist, best you sell your shares now. Look forward to seeing you complain again when the shares hit 100p.

[spaceparallax] 07/2/2014 09:35

Good point, it's called Bull....

[typo56] 07/2/2014 09:07

140661, did you ever meet with PT when he wasn't extremely confident?

[140661] 06/2/2014 16:57

Met with PT recently and he remains extremely confident that the company is making strong progress. Renshaws in particular is doing very well and looks set for major growth. The sugar side is also progressing nicely and next year should reveal excellent growth with the retail side coming through and the first sugar from Omnicane. Given the TS would have disappointed some the shares have performed better than expected. Personally I feel the shares have moved from being a spivy punting stock to a more tightly held long term share. Omnicane will inevitably reach 30% and with the board holding over 35% this is very tightly held. I have a good feeling this share is about to have its long awaited break through. GLAH

[spaceparallax] 04/2/2014 08:46

A mixed TS - we must wait to see how this translates into published results. Not sure whether the new appt's good or bad.

[tonyfabrizi] 04/2/2014 07:48

excellent new appointment.

[shanklin] 04/2/2014 07:05

What a disgraceful update. Full of waffle with no details on how they are really doing.

All IMHO, DYOR.

[tiredoldbroker] 30/1/2014 17:16

Is RGD not tied to any producer or refinery

or

is RGD in a relationship with/sourcing its sugar from Omnicane, a producer with a refinery ?

Only you can't claim the first and then be actively doing the second.

[typo56] 30/1/2014 15:58

Jam postponed a year then?

It looks like quite a bit hinges on Immingham going smoothly and their ability punt on the sugar market.

[tonyfabrizi] 29/1/2014 07:58

my point was the market reacted negatively to the FIF update which might have impacted on RGD. Personally, I am not invested in FIF and for what its worth it seemed OK to me.

[spaceparallax] 28/1/2014 14:06

Sp looking strong here. On FIF, I didn't read the TS as disappointing.

[tonyfabrizi] 27/1/2014 17:32

interesting rise over the past two trading days when the markets have been down and Finsbury trading update disappointed. News this week?

[140661] 26/1/2014 15:44

Sidam, agreed, next financial year should be very strong.

[sidam] 26/1/2014 13:08

I do not think the numbers for this year will be that good as Easter is very late and there may not be much benefit in this years H2. But next year could have the benefit from two Easters, this year's late one and next year's on 5 April could mean business falling before end of March. I am still a long term holder, but I think any big gain is 6 to 12 months away.

[140661] 26/1/2014 12:06

Brian, thanks for your observations. Based on Finsbury Food trading update on Friday it appears that market conditions are still tough so I am not expecting anything too exciting with RGD's results for year ending 31 March 2014. However, like Brian I am expecting next year to show significant growth and for cash generation to be much improved. All the macro signs are strong with the Immingham site operational this month, Omnicane continuing to buy shares and able to start supplying RGD with sugar late this year, Renshaws showing strong growth and cap ex falling. Expect to see the share price above £1 before year end. GLAH

[briangeeee] 25/1/2014 11:02

For me, as well as meeting profits forecasts without using accounting nonsense like considering restructuring as exceptional and software capitalisation, they must now start generating better cash flow and paying down debt.

Immingham is largely complete, and the majority of brand building has to be complete, so there's no good reason after the current year for cash flow not to equate to around 90% of profits. If this isn't the case, then the argument that it's a permanently cash hungry business is true.

At the same time as paying down debt, a dividend is a must, to demonstrate clearly that the business has emerged from its capital intensive growth phase.

[briangeeee] 25/1/2014 10:39

I don't subscriber to IC, but as far as I'm aware the article appeared in the "Tips of the Week" section of the online version on Thursday evening, and the magazine is dated Friday. I'd guess that maybe means it will arrive on door mats or the newsagents yesterday or this weekend.

A friend sent me a summary, and the key points were:
a. NB supply 12% UK sugar by volume, and isn't tied to a refinery or producer.
b. They think that when the sugar market reforms complete in 2017 that RGD will benefit from its ready ability to source from within and outside the EU, and this will be attractive to sugar buyers.
c. They speculate that NB could be supplying 20% of UK sugar volume through its new Immingham facility by 2017.
d. They talk about Omnicane and it's modern refinery in Mauritius, and the relationship between the companies.
e. There is mention of near term margin pressure due to the recent reduction in EU pricing, and that this tends to offset to some extent volume increases.
f. Mention is made of the other divisions, and that 25% of group revenue next year will come from branded products.

The summary is that the company is trading on nine times current year earnings, dropping to seven times next year's earnings, meaning that they consider it a 'Buy'.

[tonyfabrizi] 25/1/2014 08:52

Brian, can you please summarise what the IC article states and also confirm when it was released?