Raven Russia Share Discussion Threads

[tyranosaurus] 12/4/2016 18:13

Could be good times ahead for these.
I hope so.

[cragside] 12/4/2016 13:24

Could this be finally be moving north? First sign of a change of direction in a long while. Mind it is difficult to find anything more risky than this.

[my retirement fund] 19/3/2016 10:15

I understand IC gave a sell recommendation which is given every semblance of common sense is between 12-18 months too late! The chart is looking oversold on a monthly and weekly perspective now having hit multi year lows. Given the majority consent is oil has bottomed in February and medium term sanctions may be lifted, Russians economy should also have bottomed. One can understand being tempted by the ords for a medium term rebound to share in any recovery.

[kenny] 19/3/2016 09:53

Personally, I would avoid RUS but the preference class - RUSP - are a lot safer and offer a great yield. RUS carries all the risk whereas the preference class rank above them.

[tyranosaurus] 19/3/2016 09:22

This board has come alive.
Been looking at these for a week now and still undecided.

[courant] 18/3/2016 14:42

SKYSHIP, Good to see you here, I'm also looking at these (having been a holder in the past and sold out ~70p). Big discount, bad but not terrible outlook, and clearly a hell of a lot of pessimism in the price. Kind of thing I like ;-). Bit of weekend reading ahead I think...

[skyship] 18/3/2016 14:08

Certainly a quiet thread! Reason for the yet further fall this week was the SELL recommendation by IC Online's Simon Thompson.

[zangdook] 14/9/2015 10:34

I suggest you write in your native language. We can stick it in google translate and have a better chance of making sense of it.

[my retirement fund] 09/9/2015 17:25

Whilst Raven can hedge if they need, I think it will harm new investment from the west as this was an attraction in the past and of course new schemes will find it difficult to raise the capital from the west.

The net/net effect will simply mean less western investment in new Commercial property and an ever growing shortage of modern warehouse and logistics infra structure.

Hopefully the longer knock effect for Raven simply meaning less competition.

[speedsgh] 09/9/2015 16:30

Likewise used to hold but out at present. Keeping a watching eye for signs of a thaw in international relations between Russia and the West with a view to both RUS + RUSP.

[jeff h] 09/9/2015 16:08

Used to own but sold up when the Ukraine problems became more serious.

Still keep tabs on news etc..the below was of interest:-



Any views?...the Edison note suggests some of the leases are being changed to roubles anyway and I guess you could perhaps hedge as what often happens if you have significant exchange rate exposure in other countries.

[speedsgh] 08/9/2015 12:39

New Edison note -

"We believe Raven is strongly positioned to weather the likely challenges and take opportunities when recovery comes."

"The ordinary shares offer a c 7% prospective yield and at 126p, the preference shares yield nearly 10% on a fixed coupon."

[my retirement fund] 29/5/2015 13:36

Share buy back co feels they are undervalued

[grahamburn] 16/5/2015 17:32

Vaguely interesting/relevant:

[montyhedge] 20/3/2015 11:58

I like the Pref 12% should always pay out, 4 times a year, nice.

[speedsgh] 20/3/2015 11:35

Afaiaa RUS do not currently pay out dividends on the ordinary shares. They instead return cash via tender offer. Dividends = taxed as income. Shares sold via tender offer = taxed as capital gain.

[montyhedge] 20/3/2015 07:36

So dividend cut in two years time, that's not good, should be growing?

[grahamburn] 19/3/2015 18:21

Worth a read:

[bench2] 16/3/2015 16:18

When do the ords go ex the scrip div ?

[igbertsponk] 10/3/2015 08:32

One very positive thing to note - Trade debtors are actually slightly down at $36m. So the tenants are, so far (!), paying their rents as usual.

[montyhedge] 09/3/2015 17:39

Putin is a loose cannon, anything can happen, risk / reward not worth it.

[salpara111] 09/3/2015 12:24

Looked at these about a year ago when IC tipped them but felt that they were fully valued at the time so I held off.
The reality is that the management have made the best of a bad job.
Their balance sheet is unstressed at present but on the flip side Russia is going to fall into recession this year so it will be some time before things improve.
The divi will backstop the share price so that is something for those already invested but for me I will keep it on my watch list until we see some sort of stabilisation in Russia.

[speedsgh] 09/3/2015 11:14

New Equity Development note (FREE registration required) -

"Free cash is $247m, currently sitting mostly in Guernsey accounts, equivalent to 21p per share. Borrowing rates (down from 7.2% to 7.0%) and gearing are still at reasonable levels. THIS CASH WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AND WE HAVE HALVED OUR DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATE FOR 2015".

"WE EXPECT AT BEST A STANDSTILL YEAR IN 2015, probably a fall in US$ terms. The
market is nervous and fluid, and the concern of the major players must be to
secure their positions."

"Prime yields have gone out – BUT NOT BY A LOT AS YET - reflected in valuations
across the board, not just at Raven Russia."

"The market’s reaction to the Ukraine crisis is wholly understandable. At
present we have lowered our fair value estimate for the ordinary to
60p per share, but maintain that for the preference at 160p."

There are positives within the report too.

[bench2] 09/3/2015 10:33

Best to watch and wait , apart from the sterling pref issue , most of the debt is in US dollars , financing rouble assets . Nasty mismatch .

[speedsgh] 09/3/2015 10:09

Operating performance excellent but RUS comes with considerable risks due to the current geopolitical (Ukraine) + macro (rouble/oil price) situations. There are naturally some important notes of caution within the results...

"All of our progress in 2014 is overshadowed by the very difficult economic and geopolitical issues Russia is facing and how they will impact on our FUTURE prospects."

"Given future uncertainty it seems UNLIKELY that the rising distribution trend we had developed will continue until we can see how all of the current uncertainties unfold. Whilst we want to make distributions to shareholders when we can we have to maintain a reserve of cash to deal with the uncertainties we will face."

"It is clear that the depreciation of the Rouble against the US Dollar has made rents more expensive for tenants, many of whom had not hedged their US Dollar exposure. This has led to a raft of requests to RENEGOTIATE RENTS."

Great management team but they are currently operating in an environment where they have virtually no control over the various risk factors. They are left to taking mitigating action. Largely depends on what price you are willing to pay for the Putin risk + your view on how the current diplomatic/financial conflict between Russia & US/EU will play out.

RUSP interesting (have held previously) but still not cheap enough for me. Aimho. GLTA.