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Ramco Energy Share Discussion Threads
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|grl in Unity presentation
|It seems that the BOD may have other things on their minds than the obvious.......
Sent: 04 August 2011 12:32
To: Steven Bertram
Subject: Plans going forward.
I have today posed the following question on the ADVFN bulletin boards for
general discussion but would also like to lay it before the board.
There are, as one reply has suggested, "over a dozen small wind farm
transportation firms in the UK." And it is likely "that most of them could
be snapped up for less than £5m."
I do appreciate that you have ideas and plans existent that you are
working towards but I would ask for as full an answer as possible to my
various points as, above all, I would like a fuller understanding of the
business going forwards than I currently have.
I have spent a little time considering our current position in the market
and where we go next.....
It is beginning to look, to me, as though the management only have eyes
for the long term "mega-deal", hoping to find something which will take
them back to the old "glory days" in one or two steps but that the market
disagrees with that strategy.
These are hard times that we are living through, money is tight and the
opportunities for the "mega-deal" are few and far between. In my view the
better strategy would to be to find some smaller "thing" that we can do
well and for which the money is spent needfully rather than optionally.
I can see something of this in the "flat-pack jackets" with Cosco but even
this is high cost to all despite the savings over traditional jacket
structures. We have less than £30MM in the bank, money which will
disappear if not worked.
Perhaps we should be looking at strategically positioned cash generative
acquisitions. There are wide range of possibilities within the Oil, Gas,
and Renewable industries that we may be able to choose from and could add
value to the "Big Picture" going forward.
Of course this will necessarily require new blood to be injected into "The
Board" which is no bad thing as it also looks as though our current
managers have become a little insular in their thinking and may be missing
or dismissing viable short to medium term opportunities without due
This kind of strategy may go some way towards changing the way both
private and institutional investors look at our business as well as adding
value and news flow to our ongoing strategy.
Subject: RE: Plans going forward.
From: "Steven Bertram"
Date: Mon, August 22, 2011 9:08 am
To: "Jennifer ??????"
Apologies for the delayed response, unfortunately your message was caught up in our email filters.
Please be assured that the Board are considering all alternatives for the future and are not only looking for "mega deals".
|bones698 - 15 May'11 - 12:34 - 10682 of 10682 - http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=23771750&from=10682
someone made a good point that if we conclude a successful sale at a good price, my guess is that would mean 50-100m then the city will then have to take remp seriously again as he would have created great value from very little. so what will be important is what gets said going forward. after the sale we will be a cash rich company looking forward to the next big thing and with cash to back it further thus creating even more chances of success in that venture.
the sale will be for the 80% we have so forget the managements 20% that will not come into the figure we get in the rns as it has nothing to do with the sale imho.
75m seems a resonable guess at this time although a figure of 120m+ well within reason given the assets are worth over 200m+.
as for the share price i dont see any reason to trade at a discount to the sale value simply because we will have very low running costs going forward, remember our biggest cost has been running serl over the past 3 years and that will have gone.
monty , seamarine and mpc are what will be focused on next and the city will have to view these seriously this time and even add value for them as news starts to come out on them, monty due this month marine next month.mpc who knows and like always will be discounted until fundamental news appears if that ever happens.
so if we sell our 80% for say 75m i would expect at least 100p share price 4.3m loan repaid and [email protected] costs leaving us with 68m approx with 69m shares in issue.that would be the initial rise imho with a period of consolidation and looking at our other prospects awaiting news on them which could again move the share price if positive.
valuing the company at cash minimum means that the city give no value to logp,monty,marine and mpc which i think is unlikely given the probable success remp will have shown with sea. logp is worth 4-5m alone at this time to us.marine appears to be the next big venture though and news of a contract close to the sale completion could spark another big surge in the share price
other things that will influence the share price is quick buck merchants jumping onboard, change in sentiment by the city towards sea,future ventures and deals.
first things first though and that is how much we get for our 80% of serl. 50m is the absolute minimum for me and i would not class that as the best result. 75m a good result and 100m+ a great result.
so as far as share price goes
|Strategic environment assessment 18th March 2011 results:
Seaenergy - Beatrice - Accepted
Seaenergy - Inchcape - AcceptedMainstream Renewable Power - Neart na Gaoithe - Accepted
Eon - Solway Firth - Rejected
Dong Energy - Wigtown Bay - Rejected
Iberdrola - Kintyre Array - Rejected
SSE - Argyll Array - Accepted (with strict consultation)
Iberdrola - Argyll Array - Accepted (with strict consultation)|
|hi skirbell. i dont see anything worth keeping hold for in the near term after the sale to warrant staying in this share anymore. the game has changed so much over the last 2 years from having two potential massive plays in iraq and serl to being left with neither and selling one off too ealry to make the real money that i dont see the point of staying in.marine may have some potential but its a few years away before it would get going and thats only if they get investment for it which given they couldnt raise 40m for serl looks bloody unlikely to me.|
|I'm expecting an announcement today or tomorrow regarding the extension of the loan facility as I cannot see the sale being completed by the end of Jan. I'm actually concerned that we have not seen an announcement to this effect already. If I'm being honest, I'm increasingly more of the opinion that the SERL sale will fail completely leaving SEA with assets that it just cannot progress and a large E&Y invoice to pay.
Assuming that the sale does go through, I'll likely be selling as I can see far better investment opportunities elsewhere (WTI being one!) that offer real upside potential, rather than promises and a scatter gun strategy. Of the potential that currently looks available to SEA, SeaMarine looks the most interesting however I think it is too early in the offshore wind industry to consider such an expensive solution. I do believe that this will be the business to be in in the future, however does SEA have the pockets to bankroll such an operation for long enough to become profitable?
I've run some very basic calcs on how much SEA would likely look to charge for the use of a vessel (based on the chartering model) and I'm quickly getting to £70k+ per day. That would require the wind farm to be 100MW+ to still be able to operate at a profit (before taking into account the wind farm operator's overheads). Most windfarms of this size are close enough to shore to be able to run a servicing operation at significantly lower cost. Only larger, further offshore wind farms will be interested in SEA's operation and how many large, further off shore wind farms have been constructed?
I think it is a case of right solution, wrong time. Unless the contracts will be to supply vessels in a few years time, but then SEA will have no cashflow until then.|
|Moved a bit closer to serl sale today... slowly slowly|
|a philosophical look back at 2010 where sea is concerned
we started the year on a high with the round 3 announcments when we hit 80p, we all thought that was the start of a meteoric rise and the past was consigned to history, prospect of an asset worth hundreds of millions in 2-3 years and even mpc still in the mix.
what happened next
well i believe remp expected more than one ste from r3, that was hinted at when they said they had bid on several sites, the fact we got one resulted in a little dissapointement ,and although a major success that was in itself resulted in a drop back to around the 50-60p mark, i hope to find out if that was the case in due course when i talk to the team after the sale.
anyway next we had a period of no news and some manipulation from cantors and lanstead it seemed and the share price started to drift.
we then started to look at funding these projects to consent stage which required 40m as stated in the brokers note.at that point given the market conditions and possible remps past in raising money some concerns started to be highlighted , as it turns out they were correct.
this alone wasnt particularly bad news when they announced the serl sale but in that the announced mpc were looking at 6 rigs but if that failed they would call it a day, one of the worst worded rns's i have ever read tbh but thats my view. the share price got trashed from 30p+ to 18p not exactly what anyone wanted or expected considering the start to the year we had. newsflow was slow and when it came poor .
from there we all know the story we have bumbled along and even the signing of the costco deal and ampleman did little to create enthusiasm in sea. lanstead continued to dump as seen in the rns.
all talk then turned to the sale of serl and what it would fetch, the simple problem remained even with some excellent research and some other sales that no one knows what it will fetch, the city also would find this impossible to value until the rns and so we have bobbled along awaiting that news. even talk of monty,logp have failed to spark the share price back to life and until we get the sale it is there we have remained.
15m, 20, 40m, 100m who knows but whatever we get i think it will be hard to get to a figure that anyone could class 2010 as anything but another disappointing year for sea holders and management team. our two biggest prospects look to have been lost, mpc looks unlikely but still ongoing and sea what would have been worth a fortune in 2-3 years sold i suspect cheaply in comparison.
that leaves us possibly with x amount of cash but not much on the immeadiate horizon in terms of prospects. sea marine seems to have been the one positive prospect but given the costs involved and our problems with financing then we will have to see.
after all that two things still require resolving , mpc and price for serl.sea will fetch what it fetches nothing more can be done on that front. mpc has gone too quiet for my liking hence i think dead but maybe they await serl money to progress this also, who knows.
once serl is sold then all attention will again be on what the company has planned going forward, logp , mpc, monty, marine none of which look close to bringing in any cash or excitement in the near term and with a share and history like ros/seas one thing we do need is good positive action and newsflow to finally get out of this rut.focus again for many seems to be on revenue generation and prospects.
wether you agree or disagree on any point the fact remains the share price is near all time lows so 2010 looks to have been a disaster but with the hope that 2011 could get off to a similar start as 2010 was with the serl sale.lots of if's and but's back in the mix again, we need clarity,action and prospects and confirmation on just what we have (monty).
i look forward to seeing the figure for serl whenever it comes and reading an rns outlining our future, wether i like it or not remains to be seen and i think that is common for many pi's, some will not even read the future prospects bit but call it a day after the sale no matter what is said, ran out of patience, disappointments,slow news,changes of direction, loss of faith in the management etc etc others will stick with it a while longer looking at the future prospects and potential, either way 2011 looks to be another year of change.
good riddance 2010 and will 2011 actually be a better year? well i dont think it could be much worse than the last so here's hoping, will serl sale be a dream start again?|
|ron talks are at an advanced stage and i believe we are waiting on the buyer who will turn out to be chinese. i agree the lc loan extension points to a jan sale but maybe done to cover themselves in case they cant complete before the eoy target to rest scared investors worries.either way its close and its not when or who that matter but the price. i expect 20m but want 50m+, i think the latter is becoming more possible when looking at deals like dongs recent sale and other such deals that have happened. sea have the possibillity of over 1.5gw for sale depending on inch cape and taiwan, that is a big number and even early on is worth decent amount considering it will be worth almost 1 billion quid in 2-3 years time with 50m investment required to get it to that stage.
plus the buyer gets serl managment team and the costco deal throw in both of which are worth a pretty penny alone. consider the odds on the chinese buyer seeing the costco deal and the chance to supply structures to the uk and europe at less than half the cost of any european company can manage even with shipping included. this is a big advantage to serl to any competition and would reduce the mw installed cost significantly making sea a very attractive buy to anyone seeking to get a foothold in europe,taiwan or the uk|
|bones - you've got more chance of seeing Lord Lucan riding Shergar than getting another RNS before year end.|
|well thats the first target missed which was by xmas, unless its an 8.00am rns lol, will they miss the eoy one though? this is taking as long as it takes a woman to read a map ffs :)|
|ron they could on the prospect of getting the cash or contracts in the near future, b i agree although it can take a few days before sea announce as in the past we have found out prior to sea announcing , look at mpc etc.lets see if berty replies.|
|bones - can't see how they can sign a contract with Ulstein a) without getting the dosh from the sale of SERL first - in which case where's the RNS? b)issuing an RNS for the contract in its own right.|
|ron just contacted sea, awaiting a phonecall from berty regarding the ulstein contract. simple question are they ours?
as for issuing an rns sea will be in the office if required to complete the deal and the rns machine will be working as always when the market is open for business :)
i will be amazed if berty phones me back tbh but they have gone very quiet of late and not replying to shareholder emails yet they are in office. i suspect they are very busy atm.|
|Indeed, but you try and find someone to issue an RNS.|
|ron dont forget the chinese celevrate xmas later than us so they are open for business, just a thought!|
|bones - if you think ANYONE's going to be in the office for any announcements between Christmas and the New Year, then you've got far more charity in your soul than Ron has.
It's tomorrow or next year - and if it's next year Mystic Ron has already prophesied it will be towards the ar5e end of January.
Have a good one.|
|hi namo yes its much more peaceful here than elsewhere and i prefer it that way, only a few of the old timers will recall this bb and given it was a very humourous and knowledgeable place i felt it was the best place to post considering i have been on it from the start. there is also the fact that it was run by a good friend who has past away so i would expect it will help keep things civil out of respect.
5 business days left this year so looking likely it will be jan before news but at least the graphic may be pointing to happier times ahead.
i also asked in that email if they would be ok for a lengthy talk after the sale news is released to discuss the company going forward which berty was fine with, i have a lot of questions going forward and a few looking back as to the handling of projects which may help in the future.i hope they are able to open up after the sale is concluded and update recieved.|
|Thanks for sharing bones, so this is where you hide.
I bet the greeting is done by Steve Remp's son, 2 years ago (edit: at the 2009 AGM) when I was chatting to him at the AGM, one of his interests was graphic design. Good for him if that is the case.|