RAB Capital Share Discussion Threads

[resource invest] 11/5/2011 07:33

Do you think we will see a collapse in share price this morning???

[edmondj] 11/5/2011 07:28

The de-listing flag appears to have been raised, possibly with a cash sweetener:

The Company intends to continue to support its core strategies, including the UCITS funds it has recently launched. However, the Board intends to review the options for the Company, including the appropriateness of maintaining an AIM listing, and the possible use of the Company's surplus capital to provide some liquidity to shareholders.

[the_owl] 11/4/2011 10:28

CH - disagree. Quality companies go through tough times too.

At the extremes, some come out stronger, some cease to exist. RAB seem to have done most of the hard work, and are attracting inflows. A director buy may (though small) be seen as a positive sign.

[cinghiale] 06/4/2011 22:54

This company is of very low quality----avoid at all costs.

[the_owl] 06/4/2011 13:59

Have taken all the figures off the header as I haven't a clue now what the net effect is!

Waiting to buy though...

[pseudosphere] 31/3/2011 15:29

Took a risk and topped up, the 25000 buy at 10.3p is mine. Unfortunately my average purchase price is now 24.39p, so some way to go until I'm in profit!

Rob

[the_owl] 31/3/2011 11:06

Great points EJ. We need to hear more from company on this. Checked FOGL share price yesterday which has now slumped to 78p.

Understand they have tight risk controls in place, so derivatives may hedge underlyings. Little information exists on relative loss impact e.g. as compared to their gold/energy trades. We can only guess though note AUM has remained fairly static so there may be compensating gains elsewhere.

[edmondj] 31/3/2011 10:44

Surely the main part of the problem for perception is the £23m annual admin expenses (i.e. salaries etc), a substantial hurdle for a downsized hedge fund manager to overcome - to get into a value generating scenario. With the outlook uncertain (markets also the redemption aspect affecting Special Sits) it's hardly surprising there appears to be a sense there isn't much here for outside investors.

Admittedly there is a net asset value of 17.4p a share but the discount probably shows the market is wary of further write-downs say among unquoted investments besides the Oxus/Mouchel hits which aren't that significant except to reputation.

You'd want some confidence, RAB can become sustainably value generating, otherwise the discount to NAV could be a value trap.

[rathkum] 30/3/2011 23:15

RAB is on my watchlist. Missed buying this morning when they were briefly trading under 10p. Seems they have taken a hit on Mouchel

[the_owl] 30/3/2011 22:34

Welcome to new RAB thread to follow the RAB story as it attempts to return to profit. Posts welcome. Best of luck. OWL

[the_owl] 30/3/2011 22:32

HAVE STARTED NEW THREAD - SUGGESTIONS WELCOME.

Owl

[the_owl] 30/3/2011 22:11

* RAB indicated it will de-list from AIM

[the_owl] 30/3/2011 18:34

All a bit disappointing & a sad reflection on RAB. 3 funds seem to be up this month, others down unfortunately typical of AIM but not usually of this company. Poor communication & updates. Sub 10p is not good for a company whose whole reason d'etre is profitable trading. Seem to have lost their way somewhat & will need to work hard, and get in some Director buys if they wish to justify a higher price now IMHO.

Either that or a buying opportunity is emerging. To be honest, not sure its the latter as cannot find recent evidence. Thoughts?

Owl

[hugepants] 07/3/2011 14:26

A quality performance from this dog today. The results are due this month according to the website.

[hugepants] 28/2/2011 23:46

12p to buy now but the buyback seems to have stopped. Are they in a closed period?

[the_owl] 25/2/2011 08:33

All very quiet.

[traderabc] 10/2/2011 18:20

It does seem priced for poor results.

This recent advance from 11.5 is hesitant and drawn out, my feeling is that 13.5 ish is the best RAB can do for good while, if it could find support above the 200 day MA then I'd be more hopeful.

[the_owl] 10/2/2011 17:58

All very quiet on RAB ....until today for some reason (5x av vol). Maybe positioning for results?

Personally not expecting these to be great looking backwards thro' 2010.

[gingerplant] 29/1/2011 07:14

Thanks The_Owl - and good points re de-listing. It hadn't occurred to me as I hardly ever invest in investors as it all seems a bit opaque sometimes. Nevertheless, I think I'll buy a small quantity on Monday and forget about them for a few years.

[the_owl] 28/1/2011 18:23

I'd broadly agree with your valuation. Surplus cash and announcements that the cost-cutting exercise is complete would also play favourably to the company valuation.

De-listing could happen anytime (never say never with AIM listings!). However, it would I think be a retrograde step in the event of the company doing poorly (it cannot raise equity on main markets), or if it does well (equity for prime investment opportunities would be hard to come by). Would you invest in an unregulated private company? I certainly wouldn't.

A public listing provides a level of transparency/accountability not available for private companies (probably worth the pain of AIM regs/costs etc), which I feel is in turn positive in attracting new investors to RAB's funds. I note they were looking at a FTSE350 listing some 3 years after their IPO.

I think its clear from last years fund performances, and the little evidence we have (e.g. re energy fund, Asia above) RAB can do well - particularly with commodity/gold/resource demand outstripping supply.

In time this should augur well for attracting more new investors to its better performing funds, though I accept there are bound to be a few 'rotten apple' investments along the way. In current market environment, I'd happily take 53% in return for 20% performance fee/2% management fee. Few other places to get 31% net. In time, I think they can and will re-grow AUM as they did post IPO - just will take a few years as before in my view.

All IMHO

[gingerplant] 28/1/2011 13:37

The_Owl

RAB is value any way you look at it IMO - and their daily buy-back announcements are concentrating value. But they simultaneously increase the risk that the directors (understandably perhaps...) are no longer interested in being listed?

The prospect of a de-listing is all that's putting me off buying here. Any thoughts? The directors appear to own c.53% and there are another 1.47% held in treasury?

Purely on an assets basis they look to be worth c.£80m / 17p or so. At the last full count to the end of June, they had net current assets and investments per share of 19.8p - then we had the exceptional charge of approximately £5.5m

- down to 18.6p per share in other words.

It seems odd that they've been doing so poorly in such a benign environment - unless they've been net short - though maybe performance has changed and they haven't told us yet?

If there's any kind of time lag on earnings and they're bringing in 3-6p in eps again in a couple of years, then of course, we could be looking at a huge rise from here. But the prospect of de-listing worries me. Should it?

[the_owl] 27/1/2011 11:41

JS, agreed.

An update on how newish Asia fund is doing would have been useful. Nikkei hitting highs and a strong Yen 'should' positively affect yields on translation to UK (though of course may have hedged currency exposure).

Maybe its still early days, and they want to include in their next generic market update whenever this is due?

Happy to hold, and build c10p but I'd like an update before committing a second tranche of money to RAB shares at this price.


Owl

[joe say] 21/1/2011 08:32

but tbf the funds under management are virtually stable over the last qtr or so, so in reality it looks like market share slippage