RAB Capital Share Discussion Threads

[piedro] 16/11/2009 23:46

chrisgail.
Thank you for your reply.
That was roughly my opinion .... it would seem that RAB like a gamble.

[chrisgail] 16/11/2009 21:46

Piedro. It seems to me RAB are owed £5.1 Million and are accepting £0.89 Million cash now, another £0.97 Million in due course and 53 Million near worthless shares (worth £0.38 Million on the face of it) to give a loss of £2.86 Million overall.

It may actually be a good deal to get something back out of a very bad investment.

I have always liked RAB (and have held them several times) but the question is how many more of 'these' investments have they got tucked away? More importantly there is a reason why these shares will not go up, in this strong market and I assume its the fear of this type of news.

The updates we are due soon, if good I will buy, if not they will a lot cheaper.

[empirestate] 14/11/2009 01:02

reckon update due in the next week or so here so should get interesting

[topvest] 12/11/2009 21:38

Stepped my toe in the water for some of these. Seem to be good value at 20p, given the level of cash and investments is higher than this. Fund management business is still worth a fair bit on top!

[piedro] 09/11/2009 15:41

I would be grateful for your comments on the following RNS ....

RNS Number : 9028B
03 November 2009
PAN PACIFIC AGGREGATES PLC
VARIATION AND REDEMPTION OF OUTSTANDING LOAN NOTES
The Board of Pan Pacific Aggregates plc (the "Company") announces that, following the announcement on 27 March 2009, the Company on 3 November 2009 entered into a deed of variation with RAB Special Situations (Master) Fund Limited ("RAB"), pursuant to which the terms of the secured convertible loan notes issued by the Company to RAB (the "Loan Notes") have been further amended (the "Variation").
The Variation allows the Company to redeem £1,890,019 of the outstanding principal loan note balance (including capitalised interest) of £5,131,234 by the payment of £890,019 (effective as at 4 November 2009) and a deferred cash payment representing the net proceeds from the sale of the Company's Wood Bay property. The remaining principal loan note balance of £3,241,215 will be converted into 53,718,795 new ordinary shares of £0.001 each ("New Ordinary Shares") at an effective price of 6.03 pence per share. RAB has agreed with the Company that the redemption and conversion will take place on 4 November 2009. The principal terms of the Variation are set out below under the heading "Variation of Loan Note Terms and Redemption".
The closing mid-market price of the Company's shares on 2 November 2009, being the business day prior to the Variation, was 0.71 pence.
The New Ordinary Shares will be allotted on conversion under existing authorities to issue and allot shares. ... ...


... the part that intrigues me is that referring to the allotment of 53m+ shares at 6.03p, whereas the the current price for PPA shares is in the range of 0.65p-0.85p - Is RAB usually so seemingly generous ?

[sebass] 04/11/2009 17:24

Great post owl. I think the key is the lack of visibility going ahead. We just dont know how rab is going to perform in the next 18 months given the volatility we have had in the last 18. If the market takes a tumble so will this which is for me the main reason for not buying the shares i.e you can get them cheaper. Other than that I see little downside given their market cap is covered by cash and investments held for sale.

[the_owl] 03/11/2009 21:16

JT - possible but no indicative stake building seen yet in the price action. Rumours such as that seem a little unlikely to me right now unless you have a source?

Regardless, RAB is fundamentally a natural resource, commodity play. Gold hit a new high today, and looks set to continue (inflation return etc)- their gold fund will benefit (calls & straights). Oil is 2x low price earlier this year, resources are rising due to improving export outlook in Asia. evidence from Man etc suggest Hedge funds are seeing new investments. These factors all play well though agree with QT short-term we may see some downside if RAB aligns with drift in broader market.

For me 10-20p range is a great buying opportunity if one wants to drip feed on dips for capital or income gains & very low risk/reward ratio . End of year is not far off & a statement soon should help to reset expectations. Hopefully they'll at least match the £7m rev from the torrid H1 period. Very happy to hold RAB at these prices on no news.

Owl

ps FWIW NRK statement today suggests improvement in 'the bad' loans & improving business.

Pretty sure UK Govt will loose their case on basis a) RBS/Lloyds had & still have a value despite much worse circumstances than the rock b) B&B, A&L still trade under Spanish umbrella - they have a value & are active in their own right c) Branson believed NRK had a a value & made an offer albeit a low one d) Traditional value e.g. for M&A allows for value of company + debt. d) EU decision a few days ago to allow a split suggests there must have been value (even if only in the good bank) of £1.5bn. The notion of NRK only having a value because of a bailout is very weak & fallacious IMHO.

If nil value logic were true, RBS, Lloyds etc should not be receiving further Govt money & share price should be suspended till issues resolved. What this would mean for RAB though in terms of returns of value if they win NRK case who can tell.

[jammytass] 02/11/2009 17:15

watch for a take out 2 offshore cmys looking at this!!!

[qalbabbass] 02/11/2009 13:40

This is a great company and undervalued at present. However I think it will touch 14-15p before it moves up again.

No dividend payments until next year so investors may want to wait.

[guru11] 24/10/2009 10:45

Probably why the share price is holding up in todays market.

[rik shaw] 21/10/2009 21:53

and it pays a good divvy.

[guru11] 21/10/2009 20:34

One thing RAB is not expensive and another thing it has good potential.

[empirestate] 21/10/2009 16:58

picked up a few lots here today, hopefully see an update soon

[the_owl] 21/10/2009 14:25

RAB depends on inflows = extra performance fee + extra management fee

Logically, a simple way to discover performance (& by implication forward RAB SP) is to get a hold of RAB's funds' performance. DL or any other decent search site & the press have these.

Whether you choose 1 month, 6 months or 1 year, all the funds are considerably up over these timeframes (way above RAB %incr in SP). This must have a positive impact (eventually) on the RAB share price The funds don't just go up by themselves, plus RAB won't trade at a % discount to them forever.

Once the market makes the various links, RAB should climb rapidly IMHO ... but to what price who can say?. Depends somewhat not just on present performance & differential to their funds but future perceived inflows & resulting cumulative effect of perf & mgmnt fees.

Therefore watch RAB funds I say - particularly at month end when investments, withdrawals, switches would be most prominent. All IMHO, DYOR.
Owl

[guru11] 19/10/2009 21:36

Lets hope you are right, Maxwellman, I could do with some profit somewhere.

From what I have heard, RAB should pick up, but some stocks, even good stocks are slow to do so.

[maxwellman] 16/10/2009 15:10

anyone got a view on year end price - think this could move quite quickly , I'm looking at maybe 40-45p

[maxwellman] 16/10/2009 12:07

dipped my toe in again

[the_owl] 15/10/2009 22:27

Be patient chaps ... we're 'under the radar' & v.little discussion anywhere - best place to be.

When this moves, it'll go fast & high. Fundamentally & technically its been missed, but with Dow 10,000/FTSE 5000, commods high, a 12% yield, & many expecting a fall (so lots of hedging), its a no brainer.

All IMHO

[guru11] 15/10/2009 08:25

I share ukinvestor220 thoughts in wondering why the share price is still flat !! Today they talk about massive bank bonuses too.

[ukinvestor220] 14/10/2009 14:49

Does this outfit ever release interim statements or trading updates? It seems like there is nothing happening here while the whole global market is on fire !!!

[the_owl] 08/10/2009 00:19

Hedge Fund Mgr Survey - Bloomberg 12:17am

Average HF return 2009 = +17%
Average HF return 2008 = -19%

Bloomberg headline later:
- Asia hedge fund assets to double in 2009
- Assets of $21Bn gone in
- Best YTD returns

[the_owl] 07/10/2009 11:28

QP
Yep - fundamentally RAB should in time produce good results while also being a good defensive play if a fall comes. No doubt this would give RAB extra hedging business. On this point, noted from recent article Ellis has calls & puts on gold as well as the physical asset. RAB resoures funds should be doing quite well of late.

Would build bigger position if wasn't being creamed by some recent poor USDJPY trades. USDJPY 'bout to achieve an 87 handle - unbelievable!! If I recover soonish, will put some to workhere. Agree with higher price - IMO 32p seems 'bout right.

Owl

[the_owl] 06/10/2009 15:21

surprised this isn't moving a bit more today what with soaring gold.