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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quadrise Plc | LSE:QED | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B11DDB67 | ORD 1P |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.0375 | 2.58% | 1.49 | 1.435 | 1.545 | 1.52 | 1.435 | 1.50 | 7,414,909 | 16:35:03 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs | 0 | -3.09M | -0.0021 | -7.14 | 22.42M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
11/9/2015 08:31 | Found these two articles - apologies if already posted. One is 'old' - 29th July. hxxp://costarfinance hxxp://costarfinance | sf5 | |
11/9/2015 07:34 | Good post. - Thanks. I am not at all sure that they will manage to pull in the remaining 22% to go unconditional. Personally, against such strong data, I don't think they will. I see no forecasts that we are at the top of the cycle. The demand for London housing is off the graph - especially more reasonably priced flats- as the numbers of people wanting to buy property in the Capital for varying reasons shows no sign of abating. But an important point is that we'd get your 145p and much, much more over time, if the Company wasn't sold! ALL IMO. DYOR. QP | quepassa | |
11/9/2015 07:18 | QP, I agree. Directors probably negotiated a good deal whereas they keep their jobs and future bonuses as part of any sale, plus retain a stake in the business. No one has so far come along to outbid Lonestar so I feel they may let this run for the duration of the extension in the hope that they will eventually get the 75% they need. Otherwise they would have upped the offer already. The flipside is, if no other bidder comes along then it is starting to look like a fair price anyway. Not as if its rocket science weighing up investments in London property. If its such a bargain (which some of us think) then why has no one else put in a higher bid? Perhaps there is a perceived risk that the market is near the top of the cycle yet it will still be some years before Quintain's assets are turned to hard cash. I'm still hoping for 145p per share somehow before this is over. | winsome147 | |
11/9/2015 07:02 | AN UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH. If you cannot believe The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), who can you? RICS yesterday DOUBLED their forecast following a survey for house price inflation for 2015 from 3% to 6%. In my view, most of that increase is post the May General Election and since the March valuations on which the current bid is based. If prices for residential are forecast to rise 6% this year ( and perhaps more in London), it makes a price of March NAV + 7% based on March valuations look laughable in my opinion. Surely Quintain management must recognise the surge in the market since March as per the RICS survey and RICS' revised forecasts. Quintain need in my view to provide shareholders with new valuations and a Trading Update. In my view, it may be fair to expect that the portfolio value of Quintain's residential estate would rise by the RICS forecast of 6% anyway this year - if not more. The following lengthy article from the Daily Mail discusses the situation in depth and is very interesting to read: In my opinion only, the value of the Offer from BidCo looks worse and worse for shareholders by the day as the market continues to provide such strong data about surging house prices, house price inflation, record low stocks of housing, enormous demand for housing and extraordinarily positive results from all property developers. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP | quepassa | |
10/9/2015 20:26 | Yes! QP | quepassa | |
10/9/2015 20:14 | so can those who voted 'No' revote with a 'Yes' if the offer is improved? | winsome147 | |
10/9/2015 13:25 | This looks a pretty poor response given that our well connected directors have probably been talking to their city chums to vote their discretionary fund holdings for the deal. It seems the majority of independently minded investors have given it the thumbs down. As posted at the outset of this offer I see enormous upside in developing what we have at Wembley, (over and above the current valuations) we don't have to do deals or buy land, just build it! Hopefully the Texans will realise that there are enough savvy investors who can see through this opportunistic bid. All IMHO, K | kramch | |
10/9/2015 08:59 | QP--thanks--back into box. I didn't accept. | bscuit | |
10/9/2015 08:14 | Maddox. Exactly. A NO decision is a tougher decision to make. I see little that will change those NO decisions. Indeed, on the contrary the great flow of such positive news for the sector and London valuations will further reinforce the NO decisions in my view. Bscuit. Read the Offer Document/Prospectus which you can find on the QED website. It doesn't really work like that. Bidco need 75% to go "unconditional". As per Clause 16.3 on p.21. If the offer does not go unconditional (ie they don't get 75%) the Offer lapses and the shares go back to their owners. - At this point, with 53.6% acceptances they have not acquired any control. They have to get to 75% - and in my view that is looking less and less likely unless they improve the terms of the offer. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP | quepassa | |
10/9/2015 07:54 | I'm being naive, but could LS choose to complete the purchase with acceptances since they have acquired effective control. Presumably management was to tender its resignation then new directors will haveto be found with the cooperation of remaining shareholders? | bscuit | |
10/9/2015 07:45 | A sizeable proportion of the acceptances will have been 'default accept' for a recommended deal. Rejection is a more considered option, and so only 53% acceptance is a very poor result for the Board. No doubt there'll be behind the scenes soundings being taken to establish what price the intransigent holders will accept. | maddox | |
10/9/2015 06:55 | QP Well said in post above and I just do not understand why some big shareholders taking this 131 p offer. Land in heart of London ,Value gone up more since last valuation.And most builders doing good . | jaws6 | |
10/9/2015 05:09 | Bad failure. BidCo are nowhere near to being in a position to go unconditional with just 53.6% of acceptances. This is not a good outcome for them in my view, nor for their low-ball bid. Around half of all shareholders have stood their ground and said NO to the low-ball opportunistic bid sending both Quintain management and Lone Star a strong message that the 131p Offer is just not acceptable. Shareholders want to share in the long-promised build-out potential of the Company and not see it sold off prematurely at a low price in my view. In my opinion only, yesterday's result is tantamount to a vote of no confidence by around half of all shareholders in management of Quintain and in management's recommendation in my opinion. A complete split vote is a sure sign that the price is and remains unattractive in my opinion. My fear had been that the recent falling equity markets may have come to the rescue of the low-ball bid, where unnerved investors may have taken the opportunity to cash in. - However despite this, half of all investors have still resolutely held their ground and have said NO. With the market strengthening again and with such astonishingly positive sector news from the likes of Derwent, Berkeley and Redrow to name a few, I cannot see , in my view only, why any investor who already said NO, would in any way now be minded to say YES to an unrevised extended offer against what is now a strengthening equity market and a London property market undeniably getting even stronger. BidCo did not get the necessary 75% to go unconditional in six weeks, therefore it seems to me very unlikely that a further two weeks will make any material difference. A circa50/50 outcome is a total split vote and, in my opinion, the Offer does not deserve to succeed at this price of 131p. This is a major emabarassment for the top management of Quintain in my view who recommended the Offer and indeed for their advisors. The management and advisors jointly appear, in my opinion only, to have misread investor appetite and shareholder sentiment so badly. I personally ask myself if management are in touch with how shareholders feel about the strategy, management and running of Quintain. My personal recommendations to management would be to go back to the negotiating table to secure a significantly better price for investors. My personal view is that the 131p tabled so far is destined to failure. In my opinion only, fair value would be a 15-25% premium over NAV. Not just 7% over NAV. -It appears to me that such value is on the horizon anyway over the next year or two, even if the current bid falls away and there is a temporary retrenchment in share price. In the meantime and in order to boost confidence, in my view management should and need to provide promptly both a Trading Update and Revised Property Valuations. If the recommended Bid subsequently fails as, in my opinion only, would now seem a distinct possibility unless it is increased, senior management should, in my view only, consider their positions at Quintain in view of the fact that their recommendations on this Offer have initially garnered such divided support. The First Closing result clearly indicates in my opinion that they have lost the support of almost half of their shareholders on their recommendation. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP | quepassa | |
09/9/2015 21:27 | why would shareholders who didn't accept before now accept? The fund wants to hit the magic 75% level at which it can de-list as then the remaining shareholders will probably accept as they don't want to hold an unlisted entity. I think Lone Star are just playing hard ball. They want to pay as little as possible but want the whole company. Push to shove Lone Star will increase the offer price in my view so it can get the whole company. So worth holding on. | trytotakeiteasy | |
09/9/2015 16:25 | Still a balancing act.... can be one happy about controlling management.... or will they want to de-list? Am I not right in thinking that under 75% it's not a subsidiary but merely an investment and thus harder to use for borrowing? | bscuit | |
09/9/2015 16:24 | That is a big surprise..... makes you wonder why they are so keen to sell? | 911man | |
09/9/2015 16:12 | 53% acceptances !! | huttonr | |
09/9/2015 16:11 | 53% acceptance of offer extension for another 2 weeeks. Far more than i thought. | dov | |
09/9/2015 14:30 | my form said: you can take your 131p cash offer and shove it up where the sun don't shine......Slap in the face to management and directors and their fiduciary duty to look after shareholder interests....when the level of acceptances comes through I think it will make Quintain management/directors look like mugs!!! Shareholders will be saying we aren't idiots pals.... | trytotakeiteasy | |
09/9/2015 06:26 | Yes. At 13.00hrs today is the First Closing Deadline. Don't know exactly when any announcement follows one way or another. As if any further evidence were needed as to how strong the London property market is, today's page 24 in the FT sums it up " Housebuilders Berkeley and Redrow have both been bolstered by strong demand as demand from buyers fuels Britain's housing market". Some redacted snippets from the article:- 1 Berkeley said trading had been robust in the four months to the end of August with its core market in the south-east of England benefitting from a continuing rise in house prices. 2. Redrow reports record results and DOUBLED its final dividend 3. ...said that the operating environment was "stable", helped by the "decisive" general election result 4. The average price of houses sold increased by 13% to June See full article Many factors why relying on Quintain valuations now approaching six months old is, in my opinion, unsatisfactory. ALL IMO> DYOR. QP | quepassa | |
09/9/2015 05:28 | d day today | r ball | |
07/9/2015 10:13 | Good post. The web is a many splendid thing. All sorts of info ends up there and it then enters the public domain. I once did a speculative search on GOOGLE. I searched on GOOGLE for: " Lone Star Investor Presentation Real Estate Fund IV " Lots of interesting info can be found on GOOGLE. I visit America whenever I can. All I can say is that RHODE ISLAND is a fascinating place to visit. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP | quepassa | |
07/9/2015 09:39 | Hi sf5, As Lone Star raise capital directly from investors I doubt that they have a need for further debt leverage and as such their cost of capital would be zero. I cannot find a prospectus for their Real Estate Fund that would tell us the capital structure. If that is so then the target minimum 25% IRR I would expect to incorporate the interest return that Lone Star would make by piling additional debt onto QED. My own cost of capital is zero and I'd be happy with QED signing up to likewise deliver this return to their existing shareholders. Regards, Maddox | maddox | |
05/9/2015 21:15 | Thanks for the clarification QP. I'd say 8% pa isn't a huge target return over 3 years, given the risks and uncertainties. If this were an overall return target for the acquisition and Lone Star were gearing up to seek a higher geared return on equity, that might be more attractive to them. However, if they're paying 10% pa for finance that doesn't make much sense and implies a high level of risk. It could be that that's just 'internal' interest sloshing between different Lone Star SPVs and could equally have been set at 5% pa or some such? And it could be that the 25% is just a conservative 'public' target and their best estimate is somewhat higher. Just idle speculation on my part! Is it also fair to assume that if there were a counter bid before 9 Sept first closing it would have emerged by now? A potential out-bidder may be concerned that as the deadline nears some holders would be minded to accept the Lone Star bid (or sell in the market) rather than risk a price fall-back if the offer is rejected and so would have shown their hand by now? Again, idle speculation on my part but I'd think the major holders have discussed amongst themselves and have a fair idea which way the vote will go. Either way, Wednesday should be interesting! | sf5 |
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