Queen's Walk Investment Share Discussion Threads

[nickcduk] 01/6/2009 06:52

I would doubt very much doubt whether a 64c dividend is going to be back on the cards. With lower leverage and NAV I would be happy with the 32c being maintained. Looking to add aggressively if the next set of results show that things aren't getting particularly worse.

[zastas] 31/5/2009 23:03

Timanglin,

Sorry for my acronym usage. I meant mortgage-backed or more general asset-backed securities. Language has been very baffling; as we now know not even bank-boards and regulators quite understood it all. But basically QWIL could still now buy highly-rated (yes,I know) mortgages packaged-up and securitised with big discounts to real or modelled NAV, with 20% cash upon cash yields as mentioned in their latest statement. Most of their assets are now Portugees and German: Portugal has had stable houseprices since 2002 and in both countries high LTV mortgages were/are frowned upon. But I think it is unlikely that QWIL will create cash for this purpose through selling some of their bought-back shares. Perhaps they are already cancelled anyhow. And most of the buy-backs were done at about 4 euro or higher; not very good timing but that applies to all the wasteful share back-buying done by companies the last few years. It is predicting about 10 Euro per share in cashflow over its lifetime. Good luck with your QWIL too.

[timanglin] 30/5/2009 21:25

Hi Zastas, my buys haven't appeared either, however who are MBSecurites? do they have an epic and why are they potentially better than QWIL? as an aside my main anxiety with QWIL is a management buy out at this level...

[zastas] 30/5/2009 11:28

Not many trades recently visible on LSE. But then much happens off exchange or on Virt-x like. Most of mine have never been reported where I could find them.
Never anything on PLUS.

There's always a larger seller appearing late morning with an offer above MM-size, just below the MMs' ones. He was there when the price was less than half of today's. My amateur-broker didn't want to tell me from whom I was buying when I became curious: "market rules". I donot think it is QWIL itself although it could make sense to sell again some earlier bought-in ones and to invest in discounted 'quality' MBSecurities instead.

So it's waiting for the annual report then. Unless there is an unexpected negative surprise, another quarterly 8 eurocent dividend should be announced. But once the debt is paid-off according to the agreed schedule, the dividend should return again to its 64 cent per year. About 40% yield with much to be recovered to its NAV. The EURO could fall a little further though.

[robizm] 29/5/2009 22:07

I bought some rig, these are much better better and have positve nav, rig more a spec bet by me.

[davebowler] 19/5/2009 15:03

Anybody looked at RIG as an alternative/ supplement?

[kimboy2] 28/4/2009 14:06

Notice that their website has a warning from google saying it will harm your computer.

Hmmm

[qwazi] 14/4/2009 12:40

For those interested in their underlying investments, it is worth looking at www.securitisation.pt which has quarterly reports for all of their Portuguese holdings. They are not the easiest documents to understand, but typically QWIL is the holder of the most junior piece of the securitisation -- which is the last few payments in the waterfall structure (which is typically shown in the "revenue account" page.

[bigbullman2] 05/4/2009 18:05

Ok seller finished last week - if the buyers want stock they are going to have to force the price on. Chart shows an interesting period of consolidation post the post results rally. Is it a pennant formation from 24 March?

[bigbullman2] 29/3/2009 17:18

OK thats the bullish scenario. The fact is on current assumptions this will support a dividend yield of 27% and further returns of capital or increased dividends in the medium term. nickcduk's scenario would see SIGNIFICANTLY higher returns.

[nickcduk] 29/3/2009 17:09

A lot of the mark to market declines that QWIL have been taking hits on could reverse pretty sharply. US housing looks like its not too far from bottoming out. A lot of the preference shares at banks have rocketed as they seek to buy back debt at huge discounts. Once confidence returns I would think the huge write downs they have made will look to be far too pessimistic. A lot of the mortgages QWIL are exposed to will benefit from collapsing euro rates. That will help affordability and ensure the mortgages don't default in too large a number.

[bigbullman2] 29/3/2009 16:13

27% yield!!! Assuming an unchanged dividend policy of 8c a quarter. Last quarter results show cash flow generation ABOVE expectations and confidence enough in the situation to REINVEST suplus liquidity in investment grade bonds. As things stabilse the company could actually INCREASE its dividend run rate from here so the yield could be considerably higher. The projected cash flows from the portfolio is multiples of the current share price once debt has been fully repaid.

You need to get comfortable with the underlying default rate assumptions on the investments BUT the fact is this is an UNKNOWN share with no analysts in the market providing forecasts.

A classic example of the inefficient stock market that presents in current conditions.

Quazi -there appears to be a careful buyer around the 115-120c level but surely it should be nearer 2 euro short term with subsequent results allowing for a break up towards a single digit yield (by which time dividends could be increased)

[qwazi] 24/3/2009 08:50

If anyone here has access to a bloomberg terminal, could you run QWIL Equity IOIA and let us know if there are any advertised bids.

[qwazi] 24/3/2009 08:46

Another big rise today, no particular volume showing yet (nor was there yesterday). Either there is some M&A brewing, as ROBIZM says, which to my mind could only be Cheyne seeking to buy out the minorities, or someone is bidding aggressively for stock but not finding any at these levels.

[robizm] 23/3/2009 18:42

ex dividend on wednesday. i have been in since low 40's and i did sell 20% of mine on friday but happy to hold the rest. i think there is some m & a brewing though.

[nickcduk] 23/3/2009 18:23

Managed to pick up a few at 80c last week so am fairly pleased with recent rise. I think QWIL are stunningly placed to deliver exceptional returns going forward. Credit market is totally screwed up and the returns currently on offer are amazing. QWIL picking up bargains yielding 20% on cash can't be a bad thing with base rates at 0.5%. Not going to sell mine for a long while yet.

[qwazi] 23/3/2009 13:07

Is Cheyne going to buy out the minorities?

[robizm] 20/3/2009 17:56

I was getting worried that 15k were too big a part of my portfolio, This went up quick on no voloume

[cerrito] 18/3/2009 21:36

Solid set of results and I guess the price increase can be explained by lack of any real nasties even though the quarter decline in NAV from 4.98 to 4.12 was pretty sharp.
Fact that have managed to work down loans outstanding to E29.5m at 16/March shows strength of cash flows.
In previous reports we have had more information on the portfolio in Portugal and Italy; could not listen live to the conference call and I see no questions asked.
Impact of reduced assets is decline in operating income from E6.4m to E5.2m between Q2 and Q4 08 and corresponding decline in net operating income of E4.5m to E3.5m in the same period. Though pleasantly surprised to see that operating expenses did fall from 1.393m to E1.116m. Dividends at 8Ec a share consume E2.1m a quarter so there is coverage.
Good to see that in the quarter the value of the Credit Suisse put option on the Halifax house price index went up from E1.6m to E3.3m..too bad we will not be able to collect everything from the Lehman put option.
Basically remain very comfortable with the holding

[qwazi] 18/3/2009 10:13

and good to see the divi maintained at 8c.

[qwazi] 18/3/2009 09:37

No surprises in the results, good to see the net debt coming down so quickly and default rates staying low even over the short period of high EURIBOR rates.

[robizm] 18/3/2009 09:22

nice rise today, have to re-read the results

[robizm] 11/3/2009 19:32

some of the bonds have been down graded (alba 2006)