Quayle Munro Share Discussion Threads

[stevie blunder] 13/3/2009 12:23

Can't argue with any of that.

I see one of their PFI deals, (Scottish Hospitals) closed in the last few days, can't find the details tho.

Back in September then.......;-))

[makingheaps] 11/3/2009 13:30

Morris is just an incredible story. I would have thought that their sales volume would have fallen by two thirds, their prices by nearly 20% and their land bank to need a hefty write down thereby wiping out the shareholders and allowing the bank to take over. Not an informed view just what I saw in the rest of the market.

STS sounds a good dtory but the first attempt to sell resulted in QYM tempoarily owning the lot and this time they've had the for sale sign up since the Autumn, ie 6 months, with little to announce it seems.

Stripping out the intangible asset again gives NAV per share of £5.16 about 60% of which is Morris. Going forward cash generated from the advisory side plus upside on STS and Tayflow could compensate for further Morris downward revisions.

The banking side is now clearer in that it had sales last year of £4.5m which supports previous guesses of post tax £2m earnings and a value between £1 and £2 a share.

So I agree with a combined value of £6 - £7 an offer of £4.40 today is good value.

As before however I won't buy and incurr an immediate one third paper loss.

[stevie blunder] 11/3/2009 10:00

Results were fairly upbeat I thought. Workload is "very satisfactory"



Morris is profitable and meeting banking covenants and is unlikely to need to write down the land bank. I think Morris could make 5 million or so pretax in the year to March, ballpark. Which is OK if this year marks the trough.

STS is still on the block, but made 3 million last year and has got a very good order book for current year.

Tayside is shipping product and has a business plan to break even in 2010, their second product, access graft, is making progress.

Of course the question mark over the final divi is a worry, but I suspect it will be paid. The main concern seems to be when they get paid as deals are delayed due to difficulty in financing them, they only get the dosh on completion. If STS gets sold that would ease things, and they are not exactly short of cash, a 20p final would cost around 900k.

So I think they are good value at the current price, tho the spread will effectively stop any buying

[makingheaps] 10/3/2009 17:18

Thats a pretty gloomy article for the core business. Morris must be suffering in the pincer of volume and price reductions. The share price has been static for weeks. Just no market for them I suppose

[stevie blunder] 19/1/2009 15:18

"Jones said that, although Quayle Munro had had "a satisfactory, decent 2008", trading conditions had been increasingly exacerbated throughout the autumn."

[makingheaps] 06/1/2009 12:04

Raising money in today's market is no mean feat. I like the sound of a licence agreement in the first half of 2009.

I agree as well that the employees buying in at £3 is positive although Urberior (thats HBOS isn't it?) must be a bit sick. That was about a third of their holding.

I see todays news has made the mm's push the offer up 20% widening the spread to 50%. It's not feasible to trade in these any more. the directors need to do something about the liquidity of the stock.

[stevie blunder] 06/1/2009 08:04

Tayside Flow have made a couple of announcements:



I have ascertained from QYM that investment in Tayside is written off as soon as it is made, just to be conservative.

Tayside have also raised 1.2 million in equity and DEBT. The debt is from the RBS. Now that could just be an overdraft facility, but RBS must like the business plan.



With a following wind, I think Tayside could be a very big winner for QYM.

[stevie blunder] 23/12/2008 18:37

Interesting Employee and director buying, Nearly 390k shares bought from Urberior. Most of the shares did not end up in director's hands, as you can see from the list. So employees further down the pecking order were also buying big time.

[joan of arc] 28/10/2008 21:36

As an aside support the Kill the Spread campaign. It is in all our interests!!

See below :-




www.killthespread.com



October 2008 (2)

Dear Supporter,

We wrote to you earlier this month with details of the Kill the Spread campaign objectives - since then word has really started to spread! Below are the links to the latest news and articles written about the campaign over the last two months. Were you aware that the London Stock Exchange is facing a High Court claim of anti-competitive behaviour from Plus Markets??

Change we need.....so what's next?

Since we last wrote to you, we have been approached by several brokers, wanting to know more about the Campaign and offering their assistance!

We were very encouraged by this – it's comforting to know we aren't the only ones complaining about the AIM and its Market Maker system. It's killing their business too!

We have learned a lot from their perspective on the way the AIM works and have now started discussions on some interesting initiatives including:

1/ Ways of creating an alternative Broker account for AIM shares, which could effectively cross stock between buyers and sellers, bypassing Market Makers and avoiding spreads.
2/ Creating a "ring-fenced" nominee account, offering guarantees to shareholders that their stock will not be loaned in the Market to cover short selling.

We think these could be very compelling propositions for Investors and any views or feedback you could give us on this would be very helpful; [e-mail]

We are also discussing ways forward to achieve the big systemic changes we are looking for with Direct Market Access, and we hope to be able to update you shortly with some very interesting developments.

We are finding that there is a willingness to listen to the voice of the Private Investor, but to turn these initiatives into constructive measures, we need to prove we have sufficient numbers behind the Campaign.......... and this is where you come in!

Hitting those Numbers!

At this crucial stage your support is essential and we are now asking you to make a really big effort on behalf of Kill the Spread.....

As a growing grass roots movement, we are now being taken seriously. We want our demands to be implemented as soon as possible and the only way we can ensure this happens is to prove beyond questionable doubt that a significant number of Private Investors are totally dissatisfied with the way the AIM market currently operates and are demanding change.

In simple terms - we need to get the numbers up - and fast!


5,000 supporters = ACTION!

Our target is to get to up to 5,000 supporters. We're getting there – but we need to get there quicker!! We are currently up to just over 1,300 supporters on the Poll - so there is still a way to go.

We are getting publicity but we really need the word to spread......So please, make sure you tell as many Investors you know about Kill the Spread.

You can spread the word in the many ways:

Talk to others Investors about the campaign
Post a link to the site on your Blogs
Post a link to the site on Bulletin-boards,
Tell people in you Share Club/Investor Group
Tell Everyone!!

Ask people to sign up at the website


and get them to complete the on-line poll



it won't cost you anything and will only take a few minutes of your time.

Help give us a real push – and remember if every supporter brings in just 3 new supporters - our numbers will quadruple!!

We are now on the brink of making a real difference for all Small Cap Investors - so a big push for more supporters right now is just what we need!

Thank you once again for supporting Kill the Spread – with your support change really is possible!


Kind regards



Campaign Coordinator
Kill The Spread

www.killthespread.com
[e-mail]

Please email us at [e-mail] - if you want to know more about Campaign - all question & comments are most welcome!

Recent News:


The London Stock Exchange is facing a High Court claim of anti-competitive behaviour from Plus Markets




Great Article by Tom Bulford





another mention from Dominic Frisby
(mention is at the end of this article)

[stevie blunder] 24/10/2008 11:00

Can't all be doom and gloom at Morris:



"Some of the delays in getting this element off the ground were because mid way through the preliminary stages it was agreed that Morris Homes should take over from the original development partner, Bellway Homes. A spokesperson for Morris said: "We're currently in the process of buying the land from CTP and plan to start construction once the sale is complete."

Tayside Flow have started shipping product,have filed the 510k and have demonstrated SLF in a stent (in pigs.......)

[makingheaps] 01/10/2008 12:53

A spread of £1.50 is hardly enticing for new investors. Stock as hard as ever to find

[stevie blunder] 20/9/2008 11:09

Yes it is going to be a dull year here, probably. I have dismissed any thought of a rise in the divi in 2009.....

Morris valuation is a problem as usual. The reported arithmetic is difficult to make add up, since the reported after tax profits of 12.1 million gives a much higher value on the pe of 3.5. (12.1 x 3.5 x23% = 9.7) versus the reported value of 6.9. I suspect the difference is due to interest on the shareholder loan notes not being included in the reported profits. I may email for clarification. I would also like it confirmed that the loan note interest is still being paid, and whether Morris paid a dividend on the equity this year, tho I suspect not.

The fall in the stock since the start of the year is much larger than the value lost in Morris, so one could say it is "priced in". ( famous last words.....)

NAV is now greater than market cap, tho a good chunk of that NAV is now intangible, being goodwill created on the acquisitions.

Good news in the near future looks limited to Submersible TV sell off, TFT commercialisation and the possible disposal of AMG systems, where another large holder, Strathdon, is trying to liquidate its portfolio and may be putting some pressure on.

Ther AGM is being moved to London, so I will not be going this year.

[topvest] 20/9/2008 08:39

Yes, quite downbeat and they have some real challenges, not least getting £11m back from Morris. Valuation change does look odd. They should have realised their investment in a housebuilder at the top or near the top of the market. I'm sure the group will survive, but best to come back in 6-12m here after they have taken the pain.

[makingheaps] 19/9/2008 22:47

Chief execs report reads a bit gloomy to put it mildly. Do you think he's learned a thing or two since the Leeson days!! I find it a bit worrying that they change the rules for valuing Morris because they don't like the answer the old method produced. Having said that Morris's performance seems extremely impressive in the current environment. a year on year reduction of only 8% is truly remarkable. Seems the Edinburgh operation is still propped up by the Pifco income but that will vanish in the moddle of next year. They have a lot to do!

[topvest] 19/9/2008 20:36

No comment on the results? Look ok at first glance. Still watching here though. Expect to pick up lower.

[makingheaps] 21/8/2008 10:01

Nice to see commercialisation at Tayflow. I note they now say they intend to raise more funds. Should help establish the company's value.

[stevie blunder] 28/7/2008 16:32

Tayside:

Tayside Flow Technologies leaps major commercial hurdle: starts vascular graft manufacturing and appoints key market partners for September launch


Tayside Flow Technologies (TFT) is pleased to announce that it has entered an OEM agreement with a leading medical device manufacturer to begin producing its innovative Peripheral Vascular Graft. Commercial production will start in September. Key partners for sales and distribution have also been appointed in Germany, Spain, Austria and Belgium

Full release here:

[topvest] 26/7/2008 18:23

There's only one way that this is going and it's not up. Next results are likely to be very poor indeed.

[makingheaps] 25/7/2008 15:37

You are absolutely right, the situation at Morris must be reasonable otherwise there would have been a statement and Jones would not have bought. Slightly odd that only one director acted in this way. Often if they are trying to make a point you get a group of them doing it. NAV will be hit by the revaluation of Morris but also by the reduction in cash sue to the acquisitions and the dilutitive effect of the new shares. I think we will be around £5. However as you point out what really matters now is how well the three advisory businesses gel together. Corporate finance deals are well down on previous levels at the moment but I would hope they can illustarte post tax eps from this source of 50p.

[stevie blunder] 21/7/2008 20:57

Hopefully the value of the company is now more in the corporate finance side rather than the NAV of the investments. It all hinges on whether the cash/shares used in the acquisitions has/have been spent wisely, the jury is still out on that, but I am betting (obviously, since I still hold) that they are going to build a substantial company. We shall see.

I was surprised to see Ian Jones buying as it is difficult to see how he could not in possession of inside knowledge as a director of Morris. I am also slightly surprised there has not been a trading statement about Morris, though if profits till their FY end on 30th Mar were in line with the forecast made at the start of March, they may think it OK till wait till September. Valuation will be very difficult as you say, I suspect that the equity may be written down from 10 million by more than half. The loan notes should retain their value, as long as the interest is being paid. So maybe a 150p/share hit, offset by uplifts elsewhere hopefully (STS, AMG)

Edit: the directors of the acquired companies must be a bit peeved to see their payment devalue like this, Tulleken accepted shares at 1375p if I read the RNS correctly. Hopefully it will just encourage them even more........

[makingheaps] 21/7/2008 19:33

Just putting a value on Morris in the current climate will be a chalenge on the basis that something is only worth what you can sell it for. Encouraged that the Chairman bought some and we should take heart that there has been no negative news. The most recent acquisition was supposed to be earnings enhancing this year. If that was not so they would have had to say so. When were the shares last at this level? I know I sold some at £6 and regretted it. Maybe thats my buy back marker.

[topvest] 11/7/2008 21:35

Yes, surprised this hasn't fallen further. I can't imagine that indebted housebuilders have any equity value left in todays market. Will look to buy back in here after the bad news surfaces...glad I sold a year back.

[makingheaps] 10/7/2008 14:12

Another fall today on the back of a tiny sale. Still a terrible spread making it very difficult to buy back in. £9.50 is getting more tempting but I want news of Morris first.

[makingheaps] 11/6/2008 10:50

Hard to believe the share price has not budged here despite the fall in housebuilders over the last few weeks. surely the valuation of Morris will be decimated by the fall in volume of sales and the reduction in prices.

[makingheaps] 28/4/2008 13:36

Interesting info SB. Looks like the reason the deal fell through was not financial. I agree re MRS, most encouraging and hopefully more to come from the drill bit later in the year.

For the time being I am out of QYM and am inclined to agree with Topvest. Notwithstanding the tightness of the market I consider £10 to be fair value and think we might see that level again.