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Quartix Hlds Share Discussion Threads
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|What happened here? This just went off a cliff late September without any real news flow, or declaration of reduced holding by a major investor...|
|Happy to agree to disagree APAD, although I wouldn't disagree that "they are proper businesses", simply that there are plenty of proper growing businesses more sensibly priced.|
|Fundamentally different viewpoints, mm.
We'll agree to differ in principle, I reckon.
But, agree that QTX is highly valued on a backwards PER of 40.
BOO numbers might become a bit clearer on Tuesday.
I don't have a date for QTX.
One thing that is clear about both companies is that they are proper businesses, not dream machines, and their financials are straightforward.
|Good debate - I've personally held QTX and BOO but hold neither at the moment. QTX I sold out at 4.24, BOO I got wrong and sold at 50p.
IMHO whilst I do like to buy and hold sometimes holding at a high valuation compared to the growth is asking for trouble - ideally depending on how big the position is I prefer to sell or if in doubt top slice and then find the next underrated company.|
|"It is not just a shop without premises it is a brand, and brand valuations can be extraordinarily high."
Alternatively in the rag trade they can be deemed unfashionable in the blink of an eye, and suddenly the brand is "barge pole" territory for their target market. Just think French Connection and many more that have gone before.
"However, I think the BOO comparison is not valid as speculating about BOO's growth rate a couple of year's ahead is just speculation."
Just as valid as any speculating about any other company's growth rate I'd suggest.
Any company in any industry with a forward p/e rate above 50 is priced to perfection imo (apart from micro-caps where you sometimes see EPS growth of 100%+ in the early years). BOO is not a micro-cap.|
|I think the QTX argument is worthwhile because valuation metrics can be applied to future earnings with some degree of sense. It is in a market with similar competitors, is profitable and has some significant potential abroad. It's retention rate is good. Its Quick Ratio leaves something to be desired. It's conservatively managed.
So, on the whole one can debate future growth rates and decide whether it's overpriced or not. Beddard's analysis is peerless.
However, I think the BOO comparison is not valid as speculating about BOO's growth rate a couple of year's ahead is just speculation. It is posing an existential threat in a lot of countries. It is not just a shop without premises it is a brand, and brand valuations can be extraordinarily high.
In a nutshell, one is not comparing like with like.
QTX is 53% higher than my average buying price and, as discussed above, I am relatively sanguine about a valuation fall and interested in how their business model develops. It is existential threats to QTX from large companies that I am most concerned about currently, not valuation metrics - doesn't mean I am not interested in people's judgements though.
|Understood. PEG ratio important for me too in evaluating a potential investment (|
|To a large extent Hydrus I follow a similar strategy to the one you have described above. I'm also poor at trading in and out of companies and will simply continue to hold long term if I like the company's prospects going forward.
However, I was simply sounding a note of caution in so much as investors often forget that the p/e ratio should in general closely mirror the expected EPS growth rate.
In the two examples I have mentioned (imo) the disconnect between the growth rate and p/e ratio is far too pronounced for me to be comfortable with an investment in either. Clearly, if you've bought shares at significantly lower prices then you may be more willing to hold.|
|I agree re QTX Michael and your more general point. It's a reason to not buy in but for me not a reason to sell. I wouldn't tend to sell a position because it's become temporarily overvalued unless I think it's a totally absurd rating. I'm no good at trading in and out so prefer to stay in if the company is one I like and as I said above just expect lower returns in the near future.|
|"no question QTX is very expensive, along with a number of other high quality growth stocks across a range of industries. However that's not a reason to sell for me....."
It depends on your time horizon, and the rate at which the company is growing.
Imo the rate of growth is way too low at QTX to justify the heady p/e ratio both historic and forward. The dividend payment is less than 2% at this price and isn't even adequately covered by earnings (less than twice).
Investors are paying far too much for growth at the moment. In a different sector BOO is also an excellent example of investors believing that the share price can continue to infinity and beyond. The p/e ratio is far too high for the rate of growth imo.
A headline in today's FT reads:-
"Clothes buying starts to fall out of fashion"
It's worth a read. Apologies for OT with the BOO example.|
My take on QTX (unlike my daughter's who agrees that the arena is crowded and chaotic) is that it is the careful matching of software function to customer's back office requirements that differentiates it from the promise everything in all directions companies (TRAK) or the big beasts.
This point seems to be lost - or perhaps I'm wrong, but that rarely happens.
|Thanks for flagging - no question QTX is very expensive, along with a number of other high quality growth stocks across a range of industries. However that's not a reason to sell for me, but perhaps a reason to expect lower returns over the near term.As long as they keep increasing sales at a good rate I'll be here. Nice recurring revenue model in well run telematics companies - the article seems to question whether than is growth available for telematics companies, completely ignoring the fact that QTX is growing.|
|Different animals in the same cage in my opinion.
|Fair enough.Wrt Trakm8 - certainly the share price isn't happy at the moment but you have to admit that with trakm8 growing much faster organically than QTX it is only a matter of time before the market caps converge. No reason why both companies can't be successful though.CM|
|I think M does not want to manage it, but it can carry on without the header being updated. Not that there is much to say at the moment.
Just had a quick dip into the TRAK board. Not a happy place, I feel sorry for them.
|Marty.Why a new board? CM|
|Anyway, in the meantime, not seen this posted here:
Published on 16 Aug 2016
Quartix Safe Speed Database
The SafeSpeed database from Quartix maps 30million data points each day to more than 1million road segments, providing a more relevant and accurate measure of risk than the speed limit in scoring young drivers for insurance purposes.
|I'd be really grateful if someone who is likely to be posting on these boards or interested in Quartix over the coming months or for some time could set up a new board.
|Well I'm not surprised by the pullback, was looking extremely expensive.|
|Chaps I'm a holder of QTX and I've been watching the ticker periodically today and there seem to be loads of buy orders go through... I don't think the rising trend will break.
How far do you think this will go?|
|Fair enough, will be interested to see how it pans out. I'm no longer a holder.|
|The contracts do look good, but the acquisitions are worrying. My judgement is that TRAK management don't know what they are doing, but are promising in all directions at once.
I might be a little more laid back if I had bought at 32p :-)
|Good luck if you do - it's a very different board from when I first invested in TRAK but then again, it's share price was 32p then and no one was interested. Much more risk involved now but also some interesting contracts.|
|Me too - great ride :-)
top-sliced some FEVR at 580 - what a pillock!
Tempted to mosey over to TRAK and mention how good QTX's organic growth strategy is, but suspect the urge might be caused by a troll virus infection.|