Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[cjohn] 10/11/2016 09:55

This last week, wafer prices are flat as are polysilicon prices.

[cjohn] 02/11/2016 10:22

And another week of rising wafer prices - rises between 1 to 7% depending on wafer type. Polysilicon prices are up 2.7%.

I think production must now be close to break even on cash flow basis.

[cjohn] 28/10/2016 12:41

Another week and another significant rise in solar cell prices, this last week to the order of 5-6%. Polysilicon prices have begun rising too, but less fast. This makes about 6 solid weeks of rising prices. I'm away from my information files travelling and can't remember at what price of cell (vs polysilicon) PVCS break even on a cash basis. Does anyone on here remember?

In the circumstances described in the RNS, it makes obvious sense to hold. Evidentiary hearings can not be put off indefinitely. Hence this postponement must reflect a desire on the part of the "defendant" to settle that the arbritrators consider is genuine.

[zcaprd7] 27/10/2016 00:15

Oh, you mean their multiples of market cap comment was pre brexit? And now the award will be higher still as we assume its in euros again?

[the stigologist] 26/10/2016 15:59

Running costs are sunk and accounted for.

The currency gain of 30%+ since Brexit has not been accounted for because we don't know what the eventual settlement value will be.

[zcaprd7] 26/10/2016 15:38

Original date was July for the evidentiary hearing...

[zoolook] 26/10/2016 14:04

Seems less binary now. Is trinary a word?

[zcaprd7] 26/10/2016 14:04

That doesn't cover the running costs (at a loss more often than not) over the last few years...

[the stigologist] 26/10/2016 13:54

It's certainly been beneficial for PVCS to wait so far. Huge 30% gain on currency translation so far !

[salpara111] 26/10/2016 12:43

seriously.....what is the point in having an arbitration date if the potentially losing party can just ask for it to be forever postponed!
I agree that the third party clearly knows that they are going to lose and will want to settle in some manner that means they don't have to hand over potentially 50-60M euro in one go but are now potentially willing to start taking product at an inflated price which would effectively spread their settlement costs over several years.

[zcaprd7] 26/10/2016 10:20

I usually find that the time pressure of an imminent hearing, is what leads to a settlement! ... Mediation is done "without prejudice" but a judge would know if the idea was rejected out of hand by the claimant, and wouldn't like that. I think the payment will come, but who knows when?

[zcaprd7] 26/10/2016 10:15

Hmm. I decided to offload my remaining shares... I reckon the mediation request is a delaying strategy by the other side, pvcs have to agree to it, or they'll look bad in front of the judge!

[zcaprd7] 26/10/2016 10:09

Yes, tricky to sell and come back like last time... Also, spotted this today :Global renewable power capacity overtakes coal as 500,000 solar panels installed every dayhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/25/global-renewable-power-capacity-overtakes-coal-as-500000-solar-p/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AmzfH6gptDWw

[apatel21] 26/10/2016 09:13

Agree with Extrader that their are clues in the statement that give some positives - hence no negative reaction in share price. These positives are IMO are1. Confirmation that PVCS is in the stronger position. Extension has been requested by the other Party.2. Other Party looks willing to pay - as why try to settle before court hearingI think the 2nd issue carried the most doubt up to today's announcement.Announcement of amicable settlement could come at any moment so risky being out of the shares.

[extrader] 26/10/2016 08:10

Hi Steve 73,

I think it's a bit more nuanced than that.

...has been delayed following a request from our customer. Meanwhile in an attempt to find an amicable solution both parties have agreed to follow a mediation process led by an external mediator.

Given the other tidying up, I think it's not unreasonable to think that (a) the other side isn't confident of the outcome (b) PVCS's recent actions show pragmatism and that (c) without the time pressure of an imminent hearing a negotiated settlement is likelier.

Wishful thinking, maybe ?

ATB

[steve73] 26/10/2016 07:03

further delay to arbitration to March '17..

[zcaprd7] 25/10/2016 20:40

If the tidy up involved paying a penalty to get out of a long term contract...

[the stigologist] 25/10/2016 19:45

Socialise losses.
Privatise Profits.

[pastybap] 25/10/2016 18:39

Why would they tidy up pre-mbo and have to pay a higher price?

[zcaprd7] 25/10/2016 16:22

I meant, they're getting the business tidied up for am mbo...

[cjohn] 24/10/2016 16:47

Who else would pay for it? It's a PLC!

Bear in mind that the cancelled polysilicon contract was at much higher prices compared to the current. I certainly do hope they've "thrown in the towel". But if the current bounce back in wafer prices continues, they might be tempted to soldier on.

[zcaprd7] 20/10/2016 16:43

Cancellation of which they've rather cleverly got us, the shareholders, to pay for..

[zcaprd7] 20/10/2016 14:16

I think management have thrown in the towel, hence the cancellation of the final supply agreement? Maybe they will be tempted to mbo?

[cjohn] 20/10/2016 09:50

Perhaps it's worth mentioning that in the last month wafer prices have bounced back quite sharply and in the last couple of weeks polysilicon prices have shown a modest rise too. This comes after months of a downwards trend, of course.


The worst knock-on effect of this rise would be if it tempted management to consider soldiering on. The best would be if some other producer began to covet PVCS's production assets (as per my previous remarks on totally depreciated PPE.)