Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Purplebricks Group LSE:PURP London Ordinary Share GB00BYV2MV74 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -9.00p -2.53% 346.25p 346.50p 347.50p 351.25p 346.00p 348.00p 234,349 12:59:30
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Real Estate 46.7 -6.0 -1.0 - 941.27

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12:45:30346.25212734.05AT
12:45:30346.50212734.58AT
12:45:21347.755741,996.09AT
12:45:21347.754901,703.98AT
12:45:16347.50125434.38AT
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Purplebricks (PURP) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
22/11/2017
08:20
Purplebricks Daily Update: Purplebricks Group is listed in the Real Estate sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PURP. The last closing price for Purplebricks was 355.25p.
Purplebricks Group has a 4 week average price of 290.25p and a 12 week average price of 290.25p.
The 1 year high share price is 525p while the 1 year low share price is currently 100p.
There are currently 271,848,063 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 3,535,980 shares. The market capitalisation of Purplebricks Group is £941,273,918.14.
03/11/2017
17:28
hpcg: boofay - Your point about chain breakdown is interesting. If (as is speculation about an unknown future) the pre-pay model is the cause of chains breaking down then that might cause related parties, people buying from the PURP seller, and people selling to the PURP seller to avoid that type of seller, or give preference to others. In some ways this would be equivalent to the attraction of first time buyers, cash buyers, and vacant sellers; they are unlikely to cause a chain to break. Right now I don't think there is the evidence to make a definitive call that this will be the case, and it is certainly outside the time frame of a current short that this will make a difference to the share price, but I can certainly conceive that this will happen.
22/9/2017
16:23
argentus1000: Shorts have been scaling aggressively last 2 weeks. CWD / Bairstow Eves been on road for last week talking up their own online option which directly targets PURP. Fact is, they are continuing to lose share and there's a reason CWD share price in terminal decline. If this can break through 400 early next week more shorts will be forced to cover as we run into trading statement and no one wants to be wrong side of that. Positioning right now clearly massively bearish, which is, obviously, bullish share price from here But in reality this is one of the craziest stocks in the U.K. and half the moves can only be explained post event
22/9/2017
11:31
thirty fifty twenty: so there are these 20 people that posted reviews on Allagents.co.uk now given that PURP is causing tremors in the rest of the property world, i would have thought that all estate agents are trying to find the people that wrote these reviews, and maybe leader them to give an interview with a newspaper e.g. "i'm annoyed my review has been stopped by legal action" of course it is not really news, and very probably it only represents a smal proportion of the trasnactions that PURP does but it would now be a very valuable story to create negative publicity I really think PURP have made a big mistake on this one..... them taking legal action against a review site for 20 odd 1* reviews which may or not be true is a proactive action - it only needs some of those reviews to be true for it to seem that PURP has acted heavy handedly and of course it will encourage others to go to other routes to criticise if their experience with PURP is less than ideal. if they had just left it.. then the good experience of their customers would have won the day. the public are not stupid so they would have seen through the fake 1* reviews. So ironically PURP by taking action has shown that it doesn't trust the public which isn't great for a business trying to get the public to trust it! Remember that the BBC went undercover to get quotations from the LPE surely now there must be a few people operating under cover trying to get a story from an LPE it is probably very unfair on PURP but if there is a story to be had some-one will try and get it there is also a lot of money to be made because the rating of PURP is so high that such a story would cause further share price falls. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL PURP is in my portfolio (short)
21/9/2017
13:45
thirty fifty twenty: thanks egrid1 for your example and comments thanks andy for your experience too. I have no doubt that >90% of PURP transactions go smoothly. But also seems to make sense that when there is a problem there is much less incentive for the LPE to spend serious time to sort. I think PURP said that they aim for the LPE to sell 5 houses a week - so assuming a 40 hour week - each transactions only gets 5 hours of their time. (BTW - does anyone know how much the LPE gets of the fee? Or indeed how much RMV get?) Since it is in the news today it seems very similar to Ryanair. They have provided a cheap, no frills service and changed a market place (a growing one). Most of the time everyone was happy and customers knew what they were getting and happily paid. When things went wrong , they went badly wrong and customers were furious. It stood to reason - with a focus on minimal costs there was not a service element to the company. M O'L took several years to recognise this but recently admitted they were wrong and is trying to change the company. On that point - interestingly Ryanair has a pretty much unbroken history of sale growth. In 2006 the MV reached a peak of slightly over 3 times the forecast next years sales. it was never as high before or since. In the 12 months after 2006 the share price fell 50% (this started before the main stock market fall). Since that point Ryanair has gone on to grow sales 3 times and profits 5 times. The share price has since risen 500%. I accept that over a 10 to 15 year time scale PURP may well cause the same disruption to their market. But they will not do this without bumps on the road. At the moment PURP are valued at 12 times next year forecast sales. let's say 10times if the TU delivers better than expected as Argentus predicts. My investment is based that this rating will fall - even if it falls to 8 times that is a 20% gain on my short. I believe it could fall to 6 times and indeed to 4 times if the general stock market falls. In time this might just be a 'bump in the road' for PURP - I don't know. But for now it seems a very good risk / reward scenario to be short. For me, the slowing house market in UK is just icing on the cake. And the bad publicity around their heavy handed legal team, (BTW I think the wrong biz decision), more relevant to me gives the motivation for holders to bank profits with a resultant lower price. hpcg - good analysis. there was an interesting in CLIG this week about incentives. I think this is a very pertinent issue of our time about giving the right incentive to create the correct culture and behaviour and not lead to easy money for some. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL PURP is in my top5 hldgs (short)
21/9/2017
09:28
thirty fifty twenty: So at least we agree .... that if the stock falls 5% from here there will be the start of a serious de-rating! so you think that a stock has fallen 25% already in less than a month but that a de-rating will only start after the next 5% we are also agreed that the stock is on a huge valuation (even after the 25% fall. what I find with most bulls on this stock is that they muddle the business and the rating. I fully expect PURP to meet expectations next week. And I fully expect they will be able to say Oz is growing, and I fully expect them to say they have sold x houses in the US and to re-quote that the US market is worth some many bn. And I fully expect them to indicate that they are NOW actively looking at new territories. This is because the company is a marketing company with a neat idea. We are agreed that the company has no moat around its business. There are no barriers to entry and they have nothing that cannot be copied, and in the states already is copied. It is easy to see how innovators enter a market with a cheap product and take 3-4% market share. In my experience it is illogical to think that they can grow from 3-4% to 16% without any reaction from competitors. So I don't believe they will get to 16% of the UK market but actually for my investment decision I have assumed they will!! Based on house broker forecasts this even in 3 years, with turnover at £230m will only have 10% EBITDA margins - that is lower than a good manufacturer!! And even in three years and after 5 years of trading they will have debt of c.£30m. I assume the model must have c.£30 debt if it is modelling £3m of interest charges. However in the past people have believed this possible and it is a golden rule that the market can stay higher longer that one can stay solvent. My investment decision is based on the point that to date the market has valued that very highly and momentum traders have taken the price to stratospheric levels. There is now clear evidence that the vast majority of momentum trade stocks have now fallen significantly (c.25%) from their highs. From my watchlist (c.140 stocks) I known of c.20. The stopping of momentum trading has been reported in FT + the most popular investment journals. So whatever the business achieves my investment is based on the belief that the rating will reduce. It is happening all over the market and there is clear evidence of a head and shoulder chart top with PURP specifically. PURP is being highlighted in the last week as a technical short in 2 of the 3 broker sites I use. Then you have the negative press. From Allagents to the headlines and comments in the Daily Mail. Then there is Tom Winniforth saying that the value is zero. So more and more people are being critical of PURP. It actually doesn't matter to my investment decision if they are right or not as more will sell (makes perfect sense to lock in their profit). It was interesting that Woodford sold about 10,000 shares last week and the price crashed over 30p! Obviously I have holder bias, my position is clear I normally trade long in smaller equities, but the risk reward in PURP was so unique and potentially so larger from over 1,000 companies I have looked at, I decided to take a short position. I have a 12 moths view. From the chart there is serious resistance at 420p, though the downtrend will not be broken unless it rises above 450p IMHO. So as I see it I risk losing 10% - I think this is 20% probability But the technical , and next support level is 300p - 30% profit (over 12 months and a 50% probability) I am intrigued that your posts do not actually encourage anyone to buy before the TU next week. You seem to have access to the figures, you've met the CEO, yet you only have a small % in PURP despite the 300% rise in 9 months and yet your final piece of advice is not that PURP are a share to buy but that I should close my short.... Anyway time will tell see you here in 12 months, or when the price hits 300p, or when it rises above 450p (if i'm wrong i'm wrong). For my investment decision it may not be this trading up, or the next one, but over 12 months I just need one wobble in the market. In fact although I have my position today - if it rises from here (but remains below 450p) I will be increasing my short. And I know of 2 others with the same approach so of course a 10% fall in the price would be nice but a rise in the share price with the TU could provide a 1 in 100 opportunity for my investing strategy. I see Capita has further very large falls today. it used to be on a premium rating but that has changed over the past 18 months. It has another thing in common with PURP - being the current PURP chairman and Woodford as the biggest shareholder. I accept in advance that this is very much holder bias to think investors will correlate this to PURP but it is another example of how a darling share price of the stockmarket can suddenly be 50% down over 12 months even though it still makes lots profits and is good in its industry. All, IMHO, DYOR + BoL PURP is in my top5 (short)
20/9/2017
10:03
thirty fifty twenty: its great to see so many well articulated and reasoned posts on this BB. argentus - my apologies if you took my posts to be condescending. Hopefully you can understand that with many rampers etc... a new poster on board at a sensitive time for the stock price can arouse suspicions. with some specifics..... PURP currently has 4% market share. t/o = 43m, GP 24m, marketing = 14m, admin = 10m. lets say they get to 4 times that size. t/o = 172m, GP = 96m, marketing (lets say it doesn't change) = 14m, admin (lets say doubles despite business being 4 times the sixe) = 20m. that gives total profit of 62m. What timescale do you think this will be achieved in? 5 years? What would I value a business today that might make 62m in 5 years time that would be EPS of 16p (I've assumed LTIP and options exercised with this profit growth) EPS of only 16p in a mature cyclical market in 5 years time - current value c.100p so today's price is supported by hope that Oz and US take off.... but they have only 12 months first mover advantage in OZ and a few months in the US personally I don't think they will get 16% of the UK market, personally I don't think they will get that level of profit in the UK but even if one assumes they will (over 5 years) in my view the price currently being paid for the shares is way way too high. as before - it is priced for perfection and there will be bumps along the way. if they end up with 10% of the UK market - that is a fantastic business success and they deserve credit for that but even that level of business success does not mean the share price should be rating at 25times sales. if I may pick up on a personal point. you have met the CEO a few times, you are an experienced investor, PURP has risen 300% in the last 12 mnths yet PURP is only a small part of your portfolio so despite your convictions of the business model, despite having close access to the CEO personally it only forms a small proportion of your portfolio after a 300% rise? it seems you only backed your believe in the biz model with a very small % of your portfolio. as an additional point we probably have different time horizons for our investments. I look over a 12 months viewpoint. Whereas you are quite relaxed about a 20% move. its good to debate opinions. it is a market afterall. BTW I am well known to many and have given my contact details out before. for clarity All IMHO, DYOR + BoL PURP is in my top5 hldgs (short)
20/9/2017
09:20
hpcg: The main thing which will come out of this is that the currently unreasonable estate agent commissions will finally be reduced to something which is more in line with the skill, training and work involved. PURP may get a small part of this smaller pie, but really it is just an introduction agency for sole traders to work through - after all they are the ones doing the work. The PURP share price rise is a story which has been repeated many times before and will be many times again. The narrative is that newco breaks existing business model, takes 90% of market share, and we all live happily ever after in dividend city. The reality, in this case, is there is no new business model. It is exactly the same business just with a different pricing model. The existing players can instantaneously react by reducing their prices. Actually a more effective model would be one based on fixed fees and bonuses rather than straight flat fees. This would also sharpen listing prices to better represent the property and the market conditions, and lead to a keener market because the incentives are in the right place. People are correlating this with RMV when the latter was a new business model. It replaced the printed press who could not compete on price, local papers were largely free by then, and provided functionality which could not be provided by a paper. Network effects were beneficial to RMV, but are at best neutral, and possibly detrimental to PURP as relies on third parties to conduct its operations. As an aside, at this time the PURP business is not so relevant. The market structure where there are no active institutional buyers and one very large shareholder with big profits to lock in and at the same time redemptions to fund.
07/8/2017
21:29
ltcm1: Perhaps we should examine the Bull case a little more??? 1.2m houses to go for per annum. Could a net profit of 80m a year be possible for PURP? I presume they will rack the price up and sell other products. A relentless advertising spend to crush competitors. Then there are the foreign ventures on top. With Betfair, which was a similar situation, what happened is it took them a long time to gain traction and the share price more than halved. Their betting exchange never delivered the expected profits but what saved them was a big customer base and they ended up making a lot more from mobile casino games than their innovative exchange. So if PURP can do a lot of cross selling say then they could make a lot more from these other products than the estate agency side. If PURP goes above 520 they will have recovered from the knock they had and what is to stop a run to 700??? If you can build an argument they can make 80-100m a year in a few years time it becomes very hard to build a bear case. I don't think estate agency alone can produce this at the current price point but perhaps there is more to this business?
07/8/2017
14:12
ltcm1: So 'star investor' Neil Woodford owns 30% of PURP right??? Call me cynical but doesn't Woodford have a huge incentive to boost the PURP price to cover his ricks in Allied Minds (down 70%) and the US Pharma he had a total wipeout in after some fraud by the Directors??? Are we really to believe the likes of Foxtons and Savills are going to just stand by and let PURP eat their lunch??? Or that the Californian fraternity will let PURP just walk on in??? I would love to short these guys but how can a position be taken when Mr Woodford can stay irrational far longer than anyone else can stay solvent???
28/7/2017
10:58
ih_375993: Hydrus, Not all areas have London house prices. I recently compared costs on a House of around £175000 in the North West and found the traditional agent offered no sale no fee and fees of around double PURP. Thus if they lowered fee to PURP price and took away, no sale no fee they would break even , profit very quickly. ie Trad Agent: 2 houses on with no sale no fee - if one sold and one not sold they get c£2000 minus 2 lots of marketing costs. Purp: 2 houses up, guaranteed c£2000(approx) whether sold or not. Many agents would take the upfront guaranteed income, and some are already starting to offer this.
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