Purplebricks Share Discussion Threads

[hillofwad] 15/9/2016 11:28

Prudent
Its difficult as you clearly point out to work out the monthly instruction rate .Understandable that Bricks want to cloud the waters in case of any dips or highlighting the duration of the listing which could impact neagtively on the product .I dont understand your comment about delisting after 12 months ? You can leave them on as long as you like til sold .In fact 2 ofthe 6 listed locally to me have been on for over 12 months You have to divi up the fee after 10 months but it remains on if unsold

Properties are taking longer to sell and chains are breaking down A lot of agents are complaing that most of these are PB clients wwhereth lcal expert is nt monitoring the sale Cant see H2 ratcheting up instructions

[the prudent student] 15/9/2016 10:57

bamboo, dropping then reintroducing a property doesn't matter as the net change captures the movement and so will not double count the reintroduction as revenue. You can track the net changes but to get close to actual introductions you need to estimate 2 other things which are a) larger and b) volatile. There are 2129 missing instructions in August. Some will be from failed to sell and have delisted-probably after 12m are up. This is a difficult number to triangulate from their filings but I think it is a small number perhaps c.150 in the month. Remember these are not fail to sell (roughly a third in the industry) but fail to sell then delist- many fails to sell often relist, change the price, paint the sitting room and then sell. So c2000 missing now. Sold STC balance @ end July 6562. So 30% of this balance has completed and been delisted. Roughly 67/day. In their filings they say the average conveyancing period is 56 days so should have been 6562/56 = 117/day. So perhaps August was slow while the lawyers were on holiday. The 2000 equates to a clearing rate of 96 days. As this moves around with the lawyers efficiency it creates too large a swing to accurately calculate instructions week by week. Over time this should iron out and making these estimates might be more helpful on a 3 or 6 month basis. Bottom line is that to do 43k this year I reckon they needed to be doing c18k at the HY and it looks like they are bang on target for this. hillofwad Q re productivity holds the key to whether they can get to 23k for H2. I am going to look at this now.

[hillofwad] 15/9/2016 10:15

Bamboo Clearly I am no fan of Bricks!!I hate the way they manipulate the trustpilot feedback but the figures speak for themselves Please by all means question and challenge the facts Do you really think 332 letting instructions after 12 months full on is a success? You have been monitoring the figures July was a write off on sales understandably sowith Brexit The run rate in August is still below profits and the 46% increase in LPES since April hasnt translated into increased instructions .What am I missing ?
I think im the only poster being onbjective They arent the only show in town Just look at Martinco . and all Rightmove needst o do is flick a few switches and make a major challenge The hybuid model is here to stay will be succeesful All Bricks ahve done is chuck alot o fmoney in I just dont think Bricks are going to be the best player

[bamboo2] 15/9/2016 10:03

tps, I think you are correct. The website figures do not give the whole story. Is it still worth keeping a note here do you think?

For example, it is in the very nature of the model to give control of the sales process to the property seller.

A property can be withdrawn from the market at the click of a mouse, and this will affect the figures. Similarly, a withdrawn prop can be added back in, increasing the 'for sale' total, but not generating any extra rvenue for the co.

hillofwad, I wish your posts were more objective.

[hillofwad] 15/9/2016 09:37

Note profitable in UK at best will only be a whisper so there will be a considerable loss for the start up in Oz to bear Currently 24 LPES recruited and 4 instructions as of today Instructions were poor in July in UK Lets use August as average for the year say 38k so say £38m annual revenue Plus £10-12m marketing spend plus £10m for Oz Maths speaks for themselves . Recruited an extra 46% in LPES since April which certainly hasnt transalted into a corresponding increase in instructions I guess a token profit will be showing a net lossof £8m What about the miserable lettings side which they fail to mention Veryempty trading satement in my humble opinion

hxxp://www.propertyindustryeye.com/martin-co-announces-strong-results-and-say-it-is-now-a-player-in-the-hybrid-agent-sector/
Not the only game in town either !!!! somebody who has a real lettings side

[the prudent student] 15/9/2016 08:43

According to the website change. Total incl STC: 1Aug 15704 30th Aug 16731 giving a net change of 1027. Trading statement gives actual August instructions of 3156. The website does not capture gross flows and is off by a factor of 3 making it a poor proxy for instructions.

[nickg2] 15/9/2016 08:23

This business model is set for the future of estate agency.

[saltaire111] 15/9/2016 08:09

Well, perhaps not double. But up 3% is not too shabby!!

[saltaire111] 15/9/2016 07:47

Trading statement: profitable this year! Remarkable growth. Shares to double today?

Salty

[hillofwad] 13/9/2016 07:14

Yes the Trustpilot reviews you can take with a huge pinch of salt , too gushing .Worses till Bricks get all the adverse ones removed as unless you can prove you have epaid them money-"verified order"Esentially the serviceis asgood astkelocal common denominatore-the agent on the ground who is very reaely local. although they are trying to remedy thast Thats why I think if this model proves to have any legs Rightmove can swiftly move in and conquer all

[bamboo2] 12/9/2016 11:35

............total/inc sold
27 June 2016 7869/14089
27 July 2016 8747/15612
Balances..... 878/ 1523

07 July 2016 8206/14796
06 Aug. 2016 8918/15843
balances..... 712/ 1047

Post brexit figs to today

10 July 16 8300/14924
13 Aug. 16 9057/16129
balances... 757/ 1205

28 Aug. 16 9259/16561
06 Sept 16 9456/16961
12 Sept 16 9722/17307

[hillofwad] 11/9/2016 18:14

Well they just recruited a new sales agent for the territory Its a s mall town of 16,000 population just reporting factual information.I can only speak for my home patch Take a look at their Aussie site they have 1 listing!! . Sure its very early doors but Bricks have it all to prove
Bamboo has flagged up all the numbers they are there for you to digest and apply your own maths Instructions have plateaued
Rightmove must be sitting pretty watching this hybrid platform unfold .Tends to be the second one in which picks up the prize in disruptive offers Rightmove have the money ,the paltform and a set of real experts already signed up should they feel thereis any mileage Balanced Ive got chips on booth shoulders

[prewar] 11/9/2016 13:56

Hill, as ever a balanced post. Just for context please let us know roughly the area of the world you live in. I'm guessing your local town will be deep within PB target areas and not some backwater?

[hillofwad] 11/9/2016 08:04

Very difficult to work out the monthly take up of instructions with the moving totals
Properties are taking longer to shift and hanging around the portal Suspect their proud boast "On average it takes 14 days to find a buyer." has been kicked into touch .My local town certainly tests their boast .Of the 6 currently listed 2 have been on for over 12 months!!!
Many of those flagged up as sold STC have been comlpleted for sometime .They purposelly make it difficult for any viewer to work out monthly take up of instructions.I wonder why? Cetainy instructions have plateaued at best faliing well short of profitability
Oz up and running and they are open for business They have as I write the grand total of one listed.The only way is up!!

[hillofwad] 08/9/2016 11:10

Super In my home town they have had 8 on in the last 12 months Only 2 sold and 2 of the instructions have been on their books for 12 months and over Added 1 new instruction in the last 3months Look at Bamboos figures -well short In their prospectus They need over 40,000 pa to break even Despite ramping up recruitment drive instruction levels have stalled since April The lettings side has failed nver taken off a grand total of 302 instructions nationwide !! Facts and figures they are chewing money

[superdemon1971] 08/9/2016 10:34

Walk the streets. Walking the dog last week 4/10 of sale boards where PB. Say no more. Agree Sally.

[hillofwad] 07/9/2016 17:08

Salty Why would Rightmoveneed to buy PB They already have the platform and they already have as clients real local experts Its avery simple move from there why pay out £300m for a loss making company

[bamboo2] 06/9/2016 15:45

When's the next update?

Latest figs...

............total/inc sold
27 June 2016 7869/14089
27 July 2016 8747/15612
Balances..... 878/ 1523

07 July 2016 8206/14796
06 Aug. 2016 8918/15843
balances..... 712/ 1047

Post brexit figs to today

10 July 16 8300/14924
13 Aug. 16 9057/16129
balances... 757/ 1205

28 Aug. 16 9259/16561
06 Sept 16 9456/16961

[saltaire111] 06/9/2016 15:41

I bought £5k worth of PB shares yesterday. I bought them following a conversation with the owner of a large chain of estate agencies who said to me that he views PB as a bigger threat to his business than Rightmove. He explained that PB was starting to impact the volume of instructions he was picking up and was certainly driving down the margin in the market. As they gain share, some of the smaller players will drop out and the largest firms that are left will be forced to compete head on. But just as in the previous Property revolution with Rightmove, PB will have first mover advantage. They'll have an unassailable lead and it will be impossible for others to compete. They have the potential to impact Ricghtmove too, so I would not be at all surprised to see them make a bid for PB at some point. I think they're a strong BUY. Salty.

[the prudent student] 29/8/2016 18:18

Bamboo2. I am not sure why some properties from 2014 are still on the site. Perhaps delisting is down to each LPE and some are more efficient than others. I could not find that many >1yr old. RMV does store old properties but within their sold prices section. The question is if we believe they have done 25k+instructions to date and the website has 16k where are the rest? 9k missing suggests something systematically different and one or two from 2014 won't change this fact. Only other thing I can think of is that the 25k+ number of instructions to date is wrong but again this is based on audited revenues and measures they have given in the slides and does seem to cross check well. I still think they could be tracking below required numbers but not with any great confidence. If they are near target I think the cost structure in this model could leverage to 25-30% Ebit margins. Even then I don't think I could justify the price. I think to do so you need 10% market share for upside which is 2x any current agent in the biz. It is possible though if the concept catches on and they can execute with genuine customer service model. Best

[eggbaconandbubble] 29/8/2016 13:10

In all fairness this company will go onto be a major player in the real estate selling business - eventually. But in the meantime the share price is well OTT!

I don't short but if I did..........

[dlku] 29/8/2016 11:54

This one looks finished. Sorry. Forgive me. Is all that they will say. Words won't come easily. Shareholders will be plastering the toilet soon.

[bamboo2] 28/8/2016 11:18

............total/inc sold
27 June 2016 7869/14089
27 July 2016 8747/15612
Balances..... 878/ 1523

07 July 2016 8206/14796
06 Aug. 2016 8918/15843
balances..... 712/ 1047

Post brexit figs to today

10 July 16 8300/14924
13 Aug. 16 9057/16129
balances... 757/ 1205

28 Aug. 16 9259/16561