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PUB Punch Tvns

180.25
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Punch Tvns LSE:PUB London Ordinary Share GB00BPXRVT80 ORD SHS 0.9572P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 180.25 179.50 181.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Punch Taverns Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1601 to 1621 of 1800 messages
Chat Pages: 72  71  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63  62  61  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
30/5/2013
09:23
Why would it be an "unstructured administration, havoc all around"? There are secured loan notes of £2.36bn secured on properties valued at £2.43bn. As has been mooted before, the bondholders could simply march in an take over the assets. No need for massive capital losses for them. Of course, where the picture is complicated is that many of the current bondholders will have acquired their bonds at a significant discount to par and I believe that several of them have also got significant positions in the equity, so they will be balancing their interests. (It is said that the large shareholders in Lloyds voted through the HBOS deal, despite the risks, because they were also large shareholders in HBOS and meant they didn't have to take the hit! Well, not immediately, anyway.) The current share price does seem to be suggesting that there is going to be some sort of settlement, but I wouldn't want to bet there'll be much left in it for shareholders. I learned my lesson at Marconi. 8-(
jeffian
30/5/2013
08:42
jeffian. you may well be right, I am sure that sabres will be rattled at the very least. Having said that, the worst thing that can happen to shareholders is that the shares go to zero and approx 90m lost. How does that compare with what the bondholders stand to lose in the event of unstructured administration, havoc all around, which would probably mean capital loss as well as income loss. Potentially well in excess of £90m.
All IMHO. in any event we will find out in dues course. Market at least seems to be saying that an agreement will be reached, although that could change in a heartbeat.

muscletrade
30/5/2013
08:05
If the bondholders don't enjoy the restructuring, they'll make sure the shareholders enjoy it even less!
jeffian
30/5/2013
07:15
My view is that while the bondholders will not enjoy the restructuring they will have to come to realise that the alternative is unstructured administration. The management were as clear as they could possibly be in saying they will not agree to a pre pack admin. there will be a lot of huff and puff but in the end hobsons choice.
muscletrade
29/5/2013
21:13
Seems odd whilst they have no clear support for restructuring plans and have known opposition.
scburbs
29/5/2013
11:03
Because the beer summer garden is open
hassani2
29/5/2013
08:39
Why the jump ?
broshm
18/4/2013
13:43
In auction.



Since the announcement of the restructuring proposals for the Group's Punch A and Punch B securitisation structures on 7 February 2013 (the "Restructuring Proposal"), the Group has continued to engage with the many stakeholders who will need to support the Restructuring Proposal. As part of this process Punch convened a meeting on 17 April 2013 with a number of significant stakeholders and their advisers to discuss the Restructuring Proposal and the feedback received by Punch from stakeholders since 7 February 2013.

A wide range of views was expressed at the meeting, including the feasibility of a pre-pack administrative receivership of one or both of the securitisations to effect a restructuring. Punch has reiterated that a pre-pack cannot be executed, is not in the interests of stakeholders as a whole and the Board cannot support such an option.

Some stakeholders had previously expressed their lack of support for the current terms of the Restructuring Proposal and these views were reiterated in the meeting. However, whilst it was not anticipated that agreement would be reached at the meeting, views were expressed that provide a basis for further discussion with stakeholders around the Restructuring Proposal. These discussions are ongoing.

The Board continues to believe that a consensual restructuring is in the best interests of all stakeholders and that a restructuring can be launched in the first half of 2013.

A full copy of the presentation provided to stakeholders at the meeting is available on the Punch website www.punchtavernsplc.com. This presentation includes the following information:

skinny
16/4/2013
20:22
It's being reported on Twitter (not confirmed) that a stakeholder meeting has been called for tomorrow to come to an agreement over financial restructuring!
heyho2
05/4/2013
15:25
Monday should be a good entry,new financial starting hopefully
hassani2
05/4/2013
12:57
Thanks, scburbs
jeffian
05/4/2013
11:52
Jeffian,

Yes no new equity is being raised. The restructuring involves taking out £229m of securitisation silo B debt for £93m, so presumably a book profit of £136m (although I haven't allowed for any potential tax on that).

The restructuring on Punch A puts back required amortisation profile and eliminates interest rate step up, but all surplus cash sweeps against the outstanding debt. All notes expire 5 years later than at present (senior tranches expected to be repaid sooner).

In Punch A if debt prepayments create overhedging then the relevant portion of the swap will be closed (the most senior notes are fixed rate which should limit the impact of this).

Punch B sees £93m debt repayment and reduction of £229m in outstanding debt, generating £10m p.a. interest saving. Cash sweep is 75% of cashflow, with 25% able to be extracted to PLC to cover costs. All notes to be 17 year legal terms (most expected to be repaid in 12 years), the current term for the largest notes are 5 and 9 years.

A £125m floating rate note is part of the retired debt, but the associated swap liability is not going to be crystallised.

Both A&B will have amendments to the covenants to reduce risk of default and will remove the funding support obligations from the PLC.

scburbs
05/4/2013
11:36
I haven't been following this one that closely. Do we know what the 'restructuring' would actually look like, scburbs? Your NAV/share assumes that the same number of shares would be in issue.
jeffian
05/4/2013
11:22
Selected Numis commentary courtesy of FT Alphaville.

"H1 PBT fell 21% to £26.2m, largely due to core estate LFL net income being down
4.5%. Nevertheless, we are upgrading our full year forecast by 6% to reflect debt reduction and an expectation of trading trends continue to improve. More
importantly, management remains confident that the debt restructuring will
complete by July.

...

Punch has £82m of cash at PLC, which will become less relevant if the debt
restructuring proposal is approved, reducing debt and financial risk in the process. If the debt restructuring proceeds, we estimate that Punch's share price would be 26p if the company were valued on the same 9.5x EV/EBITDA rating as Enterprise Inns."

scburbs
05/4/2013
10:55
NAV discount is starting to make this look interesting given the proposed restructuring, albeit NAV is very sensitive to the property valuations.

If the restructuring goes through then I would put TNAV at £178m (27p per share) and adjusted TNAV at £375m (being TNAV plus derivative liabilities).

The derivative liabilities look set to be held to the end which means they will tend to nil with the quarterly payments being met out of profits. They will perhaps close some of them as debt reduces so I would view adjusted TNAV as a range of £325-375m (49p-56p), placing the shares at 12p on a 75-80% discount to adjusted TNAV.

Looks interesting even with no potential for a dividend, albeit they need the restructuring to go through to crystallise the NAV uplift and eliminate the risk of those massive derivative liabilities being crystallised as opposed to run-off over time against future profits.

scburbs
05/4/2013
10:21
"and its reassuring that pubs are selling at 18x EBIDTA and above book cost ..."

Just a note of caution there. Firstly, 18 times nothing is nothing! They say their 'core' pubs generate EBITDA of £73k each. The average EBITDA per pub across the whole estate is £27k and the EBITDA of the 164 sold pubs (which included 21 from the 'core estate) was £18,600 so the "18xEBITDA" comment does not reflect a 'hot valuation', it reflects the fact that they are selling a number of bottom-end pubs with little or no income at all. Secondly, like ETI, they will always appear to sell at or above book cost.....because when they move the pubs from 'core' into 'disposal' estate, they re-value them downwards to what they think they can actually get. Thus whilst they may say they are selling all these pubs "above book cost", they are almost certainly selling many of them for less then they paid!

jeffian
05/4/2013
09:26
Decent set of results ?? Once you take away debt servicing the free cashflow is pretty good ... and its reassuring that pubs are selling at 18x EBIDTA and above book cost ...
bigboyo
21/3/2013
11:10
Results are April 12th Lord Gnome - there's a lot of sells being soaked up here for some time.

CR

cockneyrebel
12/3/2013
14:14
I keep an eye on this out of passing interest, but it is firmly off my buy list until a deal is done. Existing stock holders could get diluted to nothing if the bond holders take the entire pot. Any purchase now is a pure gamble. Red or Black?
lord gnome
12/3/2013
09:37
But they are not going "to keep selling non core and chip away at that debt mountain", Simon, they are going for a complete financial restructuring (i.e. an acknowledgement that their debt is unmanageable). See post 1440 above. The issue is, how much equity is left for shareholders after the bondholders have had their pound of flesh?
jeffian
07/2/2013
12:01
Wakeland,

Inflating the value of real assets (property etc.) and eroding the value of debt (unfortunately debasing cash and savings along the way) is at the heart of the Government's Quantitive Easing programme. It's the only way the UK can deal with its debt - inflate it away. What's good enough for UK plc is good enough for PUB, ETI etc.!

jeffian
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