Punch Taverns Share Discussion Threads

[the troll] 04/1/2013 16:12

a damn good point Jeffian - do you 1); buy ETI's £2.86 NAV for £1.05 ( re-financing sorted & P/E of 5 looking sustainable ) or 2); buy PUB's 31p NAV for 11p & take a 100% 'blind side' risk ( P/E of < 2 reflects ) it's re-financing doesn't dilute you ? it was puntable around 6p, it's a sell now though with an 80% + up-lift in pretty short order ( all IMHO ).

[cestnous] 04/1/2013 14:57

So Bloomberg reckons PUB shares are up 110p to £11? I wish.

[jeffian] 04/1/2013 14:20

Even if you believe the Book Values in the published accounts (and the market doesn't - cf ETI), the claimed NAV/share is only 31p so >60p looks pretty hopeful, sportbilly. And whilst it may "trade its way out" as a company, brownie69, that does not mean that existing shareholders will retain their existing holdings. The company has already said that it is having to support its securitisations and that they are talking to both major shareholders and bondholders about a capital reconstruction ("...significant changes to the securitisations are necessary...") and that means only one thing - dilution. PUB may get through this with a re-structured Balance Sheet. Whether you will own much of it afterwards remains the question.

[sportbilly1976] 04/1/2013 14:09

Best part of 1 mln just taken there at 11p...

[brownie69] 04/1/2013 14:04

Yes could not breakk the 13p level today but I'm a happy holder. Once the market believes that this will trade its way out (it will) then the equity value will rerate dramatically and we will not need to worry about 13p.

[sportbilly1976] 04/1/2013 10:14

just bought in on this...looks interesting and with resistances at 13p then 18p and then the gap up to >60p

[sportbilly1976] 04/1/2013 09:26

Interesting that the intraday peak here so far is just about the closing price in August'11 after the drop from 60p

[cheshire man] 04/1/2013 09:16

My limit order got hit on that spike,,,,so out for now........

[cestnous] 04/1/2013 08:48

Possibly a short squeeze, But no doubt there was a reason for Morgan Stanley going over 11%, which we will find out in due course.

[zow1] 04/1/2013 08:44

Up over 30% today!?
Happy...but any particular reason why?

[cestnous] 03/1/2013 16:36

Finishrd with a knockout PUNCH today:-)

[cestnous] 02/1/2013 16:12

CM
I'm stalking you (I think). Nice rise today.

[cheshire man] 31/12/2012 09:51

Got in last week so happy with today's rise !

[cestnous] 31/12/2012 08:45

Taken a punt in PUB today as a recovery play, (also because pubs are something I know a lot about, at least at the bar level)
A couple of points to note;
From IC in October.
Punch's share price attributes little value to the pubs or the unrestricted cash which is being siphoned into the securitisations. However, Punch's 50 per cent stake in the Matthew Clarke drinks distribution venture, which is not secured against any debts, has a balance sheet value of 6.7p a share
From Telegraph
Punch flirted with a six-month high of 8p during intra-day trading Photo: PA
By Ben Harrington5:42PM GMT 28 Dec 20121 Comment
Punch flirted with a six-month high of 8p during intra-day trading following news Morgan Stanley now owns almost 12pc of the pub company.
Morgan Stanley's stakebuilding comes as the business carries out a restructuring of its bonds that may lead to a turnaround of the business.
Punch shares eventually gave up some of its morning gains but still managed to close up 0.2 at 7.6p.
Simon Gordon (chartist at 'Shares') has a target of 20p.

DYOR etc.

[smartypants] 14/12/2012 14:36

Is every body down the pub...hello.....?

[the troll] 24/10/2012 15:52

I'm a 'Johnny come lately' @ 6p ROBIZM, I'd imagine there aren't many of us though.
FWIW, with annual cash-flow from operations & pub sales running at £300m + & looking sustainable, servicing debt isn't the issue ( ie; debt's actually fallen £137.2m, despite that £160m interest charge ); rather, it's the old 'chestnut' of covenants & bond-holders wanting their service-cover ratios preserved choose what ? understandable yes, but impossible to achieve given this brutal recession & it's disproportionate effect on the licensed trade into which BH's knew they were investing. it's on this point the BOD needs to convince them. a common-sense approach to & a successful re-structuring outcome could, IMHO, land a 5-7 bagger @ current share price but accepted, a lot needs to go right. meanwhile, a PE of under 1x provides a degree of risk compensation. ( NAI ) views welcome.

[robizm] 24/10/2012 13:41

I dont think many PI are left in this. They have to a debt for equity swap sooner or later as that £90 million outside of A & B loans will only laat a couple more years at this rate. They paid out £160 Million in interest .

[smartypants] 24/10/2012 11:15

Punch Taverns reported that it swung to a pretax profit in fiscal 2012, while it reduced its pretax profit on an underlying basis, and added that trading in the first eight weeks of the new financial year has been in line with management expectations.

[smartypants] 24/10/2012 10:47

they've announced finals Wednesday ...and no one posts ??
Think that says every thing.

[jeffian] 22/10/2012 23:37

Hooray for the edit button, eh?!

(You're not David Cameron are you?)

[jeffian] 22/10/2012 13:50

Lots Of Love?
Lots Of Luck?
Laugh Out Loud?

[the troll] 22/10/2012 13:26

they're announcing finals Wednesday ( 24th ); lots of LUCK to holders.

[robizm] 19/10/2012 19:34

I agree as I have never seen a company pull results before. They still have plenty of cash outside the bond holdings at about £90 million as estimated by one of the analysts.