Public Services Properties Share Discussion Threads

[empirestate] 21/8/2012 11:55

interesting, a real struggle to buy any in size on line, large premiums being asked for extended settlement

[goliard] 21/8/2012 11:52

Where is the new NAV quoted as 64p? Would love to see what that was made up of!

[loverat] 21/8/2012 11:49

Well, these were trading in the range of 52p - 70p a while back at a 50% or so discount to net assets. That was before they announced what they proposed to do following their strategic review. Following the recent deal - offloading much of the debt in return for some assets I think the value per share was calculated at 64p.

So, I set a target of around 30p to recover to. There might be some news soon on the foreign assets (Swiss I think) and possible sale of those. A possible special dividend as mentioned by someone who went to a recent talk attended by a director. I suppose there may even be a reinstatement of the normal dividend at some point. Results also due in Spetember.

At 12 - 13p these have to be a possible recovery play.

[27howard] 21/8/2012 11:48

Think that 20k at 13.75p confirms there is no stock now available except for NMS
which I do not know what it is but must be small ?

[loverat] 21/8/2012 11:33

Yes - the share price did look weak at 14p - 15p and you could buy well within the spread. Back at near low levels again and perhaps very attractive if any overhang is gone or nearly gone.

[27howard] 21/8/2012 11:22

Bought the online max, think the overhang has been cleared, has come a long way
back down since that spike to 23p+.

[fangorn2] 17/8/2012 09:30

Viktormeldrew is his new avatar I gather

[mister md] 17/8/2012 09:23

where's 'ranger wet dream' who screwed up so badly here and at Geong? No doubt posting under a different name

[loverat] 17/8/2012 04:26

I think there is value here but been noticeable lately that volume very low and share price weak so I thought they would take it down at some point to generate interest. A recovery yesterday and now a reasonable spread so will be interesting to see if this is the start of a bounce or more drift.

[daytraders] 16/8/2012 10:47

thought we had great assets here ?

[woodcutter] 31/7/2012 09:57

lr

always remember how far it has fallen is not a measure of it's value, it may look cheap relative to 60p now but it might go bust that, for me, is the real risk here.

I'm not familiar with he detail in the care rental sector as i've said but usually if one company in a sector is in difficulty then many others will be too, hence my previous comments on SC. Perhaps it would be useful to try and find out what the general supply/demand curve looks like. If occupancy figures are good at the right price per occupant then fine but if not then maybe there's over capacity in the market.

I will leave this for now as it's not a sector i'm interested in, good luck with your analysis.

woody

[loverat] 31/7/2012 07:59

Woody - really appreciate your thoughts.

I think many here will agree that it may be a rocky road ahead. But at 14p (down from 60p in March) or thereabouts and with the deal completing last week on the terms in the prospectus and the European assets in play I am going see what develops. I think these shares will re-rate at some point soon.

Much appreciated again.

[loverat] 26/7/2012 09:14

Interesting - the transaction completed yesterday.

I missed that and so did the market apparently. Have to say, whilst trading in this stock does not look particularly positive this has got to be well undervalued based on the assets under control of PSPI.

If you consider the historical SP/NAV was hovering around 50% - e.g 1.30p/65p then even if you disount by 70% for uncertainities and lack of faith in the management you are looking at an share price of 20p. Simplistic way of looking at it but that's the way I see it here.

I suppose there may be some clarification on dividend going forward as that seemed to bother most here rather than the collapse in the share price Special dividend if they sell the Swiss assets perhaps.

[loverat] 24/7/2012 15:55

Nope - a few buys but judging by the quotes one is getting reckon there is still someone offloading or shorting.

[loverat] 24/7/2012 12:25

By the way - this is one stock where the market maker does not have a clue about this stock.

They did not downgrade the stock on the strategic review announcement as they did not understand it. It subsequently fell from 60p to 12p. When the deal was announced there was no rise until folks started buying - again the MMs were clueless.

Today might be the same. There may be buyers later.

[loverat] 24/7/2012 11:56

TIDMPSPI

RNS Number : 3659I

Public Service Properties Inv Ltd

24 July 2012

24 July 2012

Public Service Properties Investments Limited ("PSPI", the "Company" or the "Group")

Result of General Meeting

PSPI (AIM: PSPI), the specialist European real estate investment and financing company, published a circular to provide shareholders with further information on the conditional agreement that was entered into by the Company on 4 July 2012 to combine the majority of the UK property portfolio of the Group with the assets and business of the European Care Group, the Group's sole UK tenant, in a non-cash transaction (the "Transaction") and to convene a general meeting to seek shareholder approval of the Transaction.

The Company is pleased to announce that at the General Meeting held today, the resolution to approve the Transaction was duly passed. Subject to satisfaction, or where relevant, waiver of all conditions, the Transaction is expected to complete shortly.

[loverat] 24/7/2012 11:09

Well, the vote happens today and I assume if all goes through the transaction will follow by the end of the month.

Been looking at how cheap this looks. The market currently finding it hard to value but at the shareholder bash in Beckenham I think a figure of 64p per share was given. A few variables here and there and perhaps concerning valuations etc but discount that at 50% and you have a share price of 32p.

All being well the market will catch up when it is ready.

[loverat] 18/7/2012 09:01

Looks to me if they have taken the share price to make a market. Noticed could buy at bid last few days. Now 14.75p to buy.

[loverat] 17/7/2012 08:18

Anyone attend the presentation last night? Looks like a nice little event.

[davidosh] 16/7/2012 09:46

You can all come and ask Ralph Beney as many questions as you wish and see the PSPI presentation at our Monday Mello event in Beckenham this evening.

Www.freesharedata.com/mello

[loverat] 13/7/2012 09:53

This is the last post on TMF a site which seems to have the best analysis of PSPI. Also a link to the circular for those who have not seen it. Quite a read!



Author: Stemis3

Date: 10/07/2012 12:11
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Recommendations: 2

The announcement from PSPI is a confusing and partial analysis of the impact of the transaction on the company.

Now that the circular has been released it's rather easier to see the impact of the transaction on PSPI




Pre Post
Transaction Transaction Transaction
Property 247m -120m 127m
Debt -142m 82m -60m
Other 9m -5m 4m
Net asset value 114m -43m 71m


It's slightly better than my previous analysis in that LTV is actually 47% not 59%.

The key point for me still is the refinancing of debt falling due in the next 12 months.

[kimboy2] 10/7/2012 17:14

Well the way I see the UK assets is that they produce a rent of £3.144m (ignoring the license fee) and a rent cover of 1.77. That would mean that they are producing an operating profit of £5.56m.

That puts them on an operating yield of 11% (more if you take out the assets not paying rent).

If EC went bust then that would seem an attactive yield to sell to a third party.

[kenny] 10/7/2012 17:11

I have been here since post number 15 (27.01.10) although I last held shares in PSPI in April 2011. I have never shorted a share and only invest on a long term horizon with no leverage. When did you blow in greedfear and do you undertake any real research?

I believe the UK assets are overvalued for a large number of reasons including a) historically, the valuer has consistantly overvalued them, b) the valuers view of the strenght of the covenant does not seem appropriate because ECG is so highly geared that it will only take a small change in it's markets e.g. occupancy rate, fee income, expense inflation, for ECG to roll over dead, and c) none of the valuations (UK and non-UK) are tested because PSPI has never sold a property to a third party.

I accept I could be wrong but I suspect that PSPI is far from out of the woods. It could take a decade to recover, if ever, because everything seems stacked against it.