Public Services Properties Share Discussion Threads

[greedfear] 05/7/2012 08:00

Loverat- I see no reason whatsoever why they would fail it's a growing market they're in.

And: have we all done our calculations? What would be yearly net profit for the new PSPI?

[loverat] 04/7/2012 17:14

Nice to see some folks make some money here.

What makes me laugh is the doomsters who came on here and said they were right all along. Well, they were up a point. They called down the price correctly. However, seems they persisted at this early stage in the cycle to try to convince everyone the company was imminently doomed. They are probably right in the sense the company will eventually fail in the end but not at this stage - and not at 11p. Investors and traders who could see the bigger picture and make their decisions in the context of a share price priced for bust won the day. A good example for a lesson on how these markets work and how money can be made.

[horndean eagle] 04/7/2012 17:07

Need to get a gauge on what effect the disposal will have on profitability. Also worth bearing in mind that overseas assets had huge write downs in the last set of results. Doesn't bode well for recovering value. Still heavily exposed to UK. Nothing to get too excited about around current levels.

[greedfear] 04/7/2012 16:02

Chris and 345654- Could you continue your discussion on the other (less serious?) thread please? Cheers gents!

[christianf12] 04/7/2012 15:53

345654, you need to act like a man and admit you called it wrong here and have had your panties pulled down I'm afraid. You have cost people a fortune.

DISGUSTING.

[fangorn2] 04/7/2012 15:53

Ah I see Greed, thanks. Here's hoping it gets to that level. I was in it for the discount to Nav play coupled to a generous dividend - so will be more than grateful to get out with most of my capital intact. Certainly wont be buying any more currently as pursuing other stuff at the moment and my funds aren't limitless.

Appreciate the colour.

[345654] 04/7/2012 15:52

That 35k buyer took a lot of risk to make £500, paid 20p when 16p offer and sold for 21.5p when 22.5p bid, crazy !

[kimboy2] 04/7/2012 15:50

I make NAV 67p + any cash collected since the last results.

[greedfear] 04/7/2012 15:48

Fan- Basically 70p+ NAV (with a low LTV numbers) of which 30p+ non UK. 20% in Esq as bonus. 50-60p based on the charts + some discount on NAV.

I'm in it for the 50-60p. It's bargain territority now.
Am very pleased to have added on the way down. Now am going to sit it out. 20p+ share price is nothing.

[christianf12] 04/7/2012 15:44

345654 1 Jul'12 - 23:37 - 2 of 106

1p soon, buystock multiple name pump and dump !

lol, now up 72%

I'd say best to follow the stocks 345654 is deramping then, start by looking at ECR lol

[fangorn2] 04/7/2012 15:42

Greed,

Why do you think PSPI will reach 50-60p out of interest? Wasn't this where it was trading before the "infamous" review of our businesses in an attempt to reduce the perceived NAV discount comments by management. I know we've got rid of the burgeoning debt,in addition to most of the UK business outside of those remaining 10 profitable care homes...

Don't get me wrong - if we do I'll be jumping for joy as I'll be able to sell out flat! Which would be a miracle :)

[greedfear] 04/7/2012 15:37

Hi Chris, I believed it.. lol

[christianf12] 04/7/2012 15:34

345654 1 Jul'12 - 23:37 - 2 of 106

1p soon, buystock multiple name pump and dump !

lol

[greedfear] 04/7/2012 15:33

Feel very comfortable not reading it very carefully now. share price will go north further. I'm thinking 50-60p short/medium term.

[greedfear] 04/7/2012 15:31

As far as I can remember German, US and Swiss NAV was something like 30p.

[fangorn2] 04/7/2012 15:28

The deferred tax and other obligations seems quite chunky at c £34m in their calculations of the value of the assets transferred. Took a while to read through.

Any ideas how much the German,US and Swiss assets are worth - presumably they're ring fenced so the new PSPI will have -

1) 20% equity stake in Esquire
- value unknown given Esquire is private unlisted company

2) the Subordinated senior note £2.5m principal plus 5% coupon pa, all paid at maturity in 5 years.

3) Lloyds LBG facility of £82m + $5m IRS all paid off.

4) Overseas Assets(Germany, Swiss and US)

Have I got that all right?

Interesting to see the perky rise.

[christianf12] 04/7/2012 15:24

345654 1 Jul'12 - 23:37 - 2 of 106

1p soon, buystock multiple name pump and dump !

lol

[kimboy2] 04/7/2012 15:23

They also say that the covenant stregth of EC has improved. It may be that 20% of Esquire and the loan note may be worth something in the future.

[greedfear] 04/7/2012 15:21

60p soon. Me like. :)

[hosede] 04/7/2012 15:19

Scburbs
All this is slightly over my head I have to admit, but in giving away £33m of assets as you say, have they not also unloaded a big chunk of debt? I'm afraid refinancing of any bank loans - particularly those associated with property - seems to be a nightmare at the moment. I'm afraid I can't see much improvement coming up in the next few (maybe many) years, which is why most of my money is in cash/bonds/prefs. PSPI is one of a very small percentage of "at Risk" assets that I hold. Anyway the share price has certainly picked up a bit on the news.

[scburbs] 04/7/2012 15:17

Kimboy, UK debt was £101.2m so presumably just under £20m left? New NAV is £71m.

[kimboy2] 04/7/2012 15:07

The valuation of these 10 properties would appear to be £51m. Assuming no debt that would make a NAV of £80m or so.

Is that right ?

[kimboy2] 04/7/2012 14:47

ISTM what they have left is;

1. £35m equity in non U assets

2. 10 UK care homes, debt free and capitalisation rate to be reduced 0.75%

3. A 20% share of Esquire

[scburbs] 04/7/2012 14:35

So they have given the Lloyds funded assets away for an option in the Esquire group (I describe it as an option as they are writing the 20% holding down to a nominal amount on the basis that the group has net liabilities).

A terrible deal, but at least they are keeping some of the UK assets. I can't see how they could have done a much worse deal on the Lloyds assets. This deal making ability doesn't inspire confidence in their ability to realise value from the remaining significant net assets of £71m (after all they have just given away £33m of net assets for nothing (the worthless shares)).

On the plus side the remaining net assets are not directly exposed to the operating losses of European Care. A proper merger could have been akin to giving away the assets and taking on extra liabilities (i.e. a sale for negative consideration), so perhaps a sale of £33m of net assets for an upside option with no current value is a good deal!