Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 18/4/2012 08:44

Looking buoyant this week - maybe see £12 soon. Goes xd 42p in a month.

Brokers enthusiastic .Prospective yield estimates of 6.9% next year - need a good reason to sell these in my view.Hold and prosper.

2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
SG Securities
17-04-12 BUY
Shore Capital
13-04-12 BUY 175.80 98.10 75.00 185.00 104.60 80.00
Peel Hunt
13-04-12 BUY 178.01 97.94 75.00
Charles Stanley Securities
12-04-12 HOLD 172.50 96.07 71.00 187.20 104.86 77.60

[pillion] 30/3/2012 17:23

Wad C
Yes chart based, I have bought his tips before; only ones that have increasing healthy dividends
So far I have made a decent profit from him by not being too greedy

[wad collector] 30/3/2012 14:26

The share price here has been volatile for a long time ; the shorters must have some effect.
You can either take the long term view and ignore them, or trade with them a bit.
Thank you for the tip notice , though it seems entirely chartist based.

[pillion] 30/3/2012 13:08

Lovely Gold Cross formed - a bullish signal
Dividend yield of 6% at todays price; imho - dyor

[pillion] 29/3/2012 14:15

Is todays fall a result of being shorted

[wad collector] 26/3/2012 09:15

Flavour of the month amongst these brokers , upwards momentum continues , the usual rash of shorters appearing, which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy .Might trade some of these again soon ; but not before £12.
Don't want to miss 42p xd in 6 weeks either.

2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
SG Securities
23-03-12 BUY
Peel Hunt
22-03-12 BUY 178.21 98.05 76.90
Numis Securities Ltd
19-03-12 BUY 170.90 95.60 72.90 188.70 106.60 79.60
Shore Capital
16-03-12 BUY 175.80 98.10 75.00 185.00 104.60 80.00

[wad collector] 14/3/2012 08:51

It seems rather a lucrative time-bomb at the moment.

Vanquis Bank has delivered an excellent performance in 2011 with profits up 65.5% to GBP44.2m (2010: GBP26.7m). This was ahead of management's internal plans due to the strength of the delinquency performance. The step-up in the growth rate from the second half of 2010 has been maintained throughout 2011, supported by heavy investment in the customer acquisition programme. As a result, year-on-year customer growth of 27.0% and average receivables growth of 35.3% was achieved against unchanged underwriting standards. Delinquency levels have remained stable at record lows for the business due to the strong underlying quality of the receivables book. This has allowed Vanquis Bank to deliver a risk-adjusted margin of 35.0% in 2011 (2010: 33.9%), as well as a post-tax return on equity in excess of the threshold set for the business of 30%.

The group's funding and liquidity position is extremely robust, with the balance sheet reflecting stable gearing of 3.2 times (2010: 3.3 times) and a significant surplus of regulatory capital. The retail deposits programme at Vanquis Bank is now fully established and running ahead of plan. As at 31 December 2011, GBP140m of fixed-rate deposits had been taken at rates of between 3.15% and 4.65%. Vanquis Bank's retail deposit programme is well on track to achieve its target of funding 80% of its receivables book with deposits by the end of 2012. The group has recently entered into a new GBP382.5m syndicated bank facility maturing in May 2015 and cancelled all existing committed bank facilities. The new facility carries a very similar all-in cost of funds to the previous facility. Headroom on the group's committed debt facilities at 31 December 2011 amounted to GBP288m which, together with the recent renewal of bank facilities and the retail deposits programme at Vanquis Bank, is sufficient to fund maturities and projected growth in the business until May 2015.

The group generated capital of GBP110.1m in 2011, significantly exceeding dividends in respect of 2011 of GBP93.2m.

Vanquis Bank is now generating surplus capital over and above that required to fund its own growth and maintain its regulatory capital base. This surplus is available for distribution to Provident Financial plc and amounted to GBP14.8m in 2011. Accordingly, Vanquis Bank paid its first dividend of GBP5.0m to Provident Financial plc in July and is due to pay a further dividend in respect of 2011 of GBP5.0m in March 2012.


Personally , I am more worried about the fragility of the market recovery - to sell Prov at a tidy profit in anticipation of a market wide drop seems a reasonable plan to me.

[woozle1] 09/3/2012 11:10

Vanquis Bank will blow up. It's just a matter of time. It's very difficult to sustain this level of subprime without trouble. It's a ticking time bomb.
W

[wad collector] 28/2/2012 10:21

Powered through 1150p - I guess the brokers are waking up. I am temped to unload some more if we hit £12 soon - though a large holder I know just looked up from his newspaper and asked "Why?".He has held so long that his yield is now way above his buying price - hard to argue against that long holding strategy.They still yield 6% at 1150p.
These have remained unfashionable for yrs but suits me !
They are now at an all time high , if you add back the previously divested IPF in july 2007 takes the combined share price to 1375p, significantly above the pre-split peak of 1220p or so.

[wad collector] 28/2/2012 08:32

Results do not disappoint.
Where are Collins Stewart?


Highlights

Strong group performance

-- Pre-tax profit up 12.2% to GBP162.1m (2010: GBP144.5m(1) ).
-- Earnings per share up 14.0% to 89.6p (2010: 78.6p(1) ).
-- Total dividend per share up 8.7% to 69.0p.

-- Capital generated(2) of GBP110.1m, well in excess of dividends in respect of 2011 of GBP93.2m.

Very robust group funding position

-- Renewal of core bank facilities to 2015.
-- Vanquis Bank retail deposits programme running ahead of plan.
-- Group fully funded into 2015.
-- Gearing stable at 3.2 times (2010: 3.3 times).

Sound Consumer Credit Division result underpinned by improved credit quality

-- Pre-tax profit of GBP127.5m (2010: 53 weeks, GBP127.3m).

-- Credit standards tightened and growth moderated due to pressure on customers' disposable incomes.

-- Reduction in Home Credit rate of impairment to 32.1% of revenue (2010: 32.9%) resulting from continued focus on existing good-quality customers and a strong collections performance.

Strong profitable growth in Vanquis Bank assisted by favourable delinquency trends

-- Pre-tax profit up by 65.5% to GBP44.2m (2010: GBP26.7m).

-- Customer and average receivables growth of 27.0% and 35.3% respectively from continuing investment in customer acquisition programme.

-- Risk-adjusted margin(3) of 35.0% (2010: 33.9%) versus minimum target of 30% with delinquency at an all-time low.

-- Generated surplus distributable capital(2) of GBP14.8m.


Must confess I had forgotten results out today and sold some yesterday.They don't go xd again until June.
Just noticed someone put a large short in yesterday.Shame.

[wad collector] 23/2/2012 10:53

About that £11 target....well , it is looking imminent, but rising so strongly I am looking a bit higher now.

[wad collector] 17/2/2012 15:55

EI- it isn't just about the retailers mark-ups , but the consensus seems to be that it will have little effect on the less shark-like end of the credit industry.It may even result in higher interest payments by my understanding.
The share price seems to meandering upwards again.£11 and Collins Stewart can buy back some of mine!

[fenners66] 13/2/2012 17:23

Collins Stewart got a buyer lined up?
You can't knock them for trying but it was a lame effort

[chrisg] 13/2/2012 14:52

I thought the proposed legislation related to the amount that resellers (e.g. airlines) can mark up the charges, rather than the charges themselves.

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2012 14:44

wad, what about the proposed legislation on credit card charges?.

[wad collector] 13/2/2012 13:19

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Peel Hunt
09-02-12 BUY 160.01 87.77 68.84 178.21 98.05 76.90
SG Securities
06-02-12 BUY
Numis Securities Ltd
27-01-12 BUY 159.70 88.80 67.70 167.60 94.50 71.00
Shore Capital
27-01-12 BUY 159.60 87.40 67.90 175.20 97.60 72.70

[wad collector] 20/1/2012 20:49

Collins -Stewart SELL note - citing unsustainable dividend.Perhaps I will get another buying opportunity as the shorters are starting to appear again.Strange world.

[wad collector] 17/1/2012 13:03

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Numis Securities Ltd
12-01-12 BUY 157.40 87.60 67.70 172.80 97.40 73.80
Broker Name Withheld 3
12-01-12 SELL 159.00 85.00 65.00 140.00 75.00 65.00
Peel Hunt
11-01-12 BUY 162.69 89.24 69.99 178.21 98.05 76.90
SG Securities
10-01-12 BUY

[wad collector] 12/1/2012 08:29

Interim statement in line.

12 January 2012

Provident Financial plc, the leading UK non-standard lender, has issued the following update on trading and deposit taking for the financial year ended 31 December 2011, ahead of its preliminary results for the year which will be announced on 28 February 2012.

Trading

The Consumer Credit Division (CCD) has continued to concentrate on serving good quality existing customers by maintaining tight underwriting standards throughout the peak fourth quarter trading period. As a result, customer numbers continued to run approximately 2% below the prior year. Customer behaviour also remained cautious due to the persistent pressure on household disposable incomes from rises in food and utility prices. As anticipated in the 21 October 2011 Interim Management Statement, the rate of receivables growth moderated through the fourth quarter reflecting the exceptionally strong growth experienced towards the end of 2010. Consequently, receivables ended the year marginally up on the prior year. Collections performance remained strong through the final quarter of the year underpinned by the quality of the receivables book and the enhancements made to the agents' commission scheme in April. Accordingly, impairment levels continued to track below the prior year.

Vanquis Bank continued to generate strong growth and margins throughout the fourth quarter. Underwriting criteria have remained unchanged and delinquency levels have remained stable at record lows for the business. Accordingly, the risk-adjusted margin of approximately 35% achieved through the first nine months of the year was maintained. Customer numbers ended the year at 691,000, 27% higher than last year, and average receivables growth for the year was approximately 35%.

Both businesses enter 2012 with good quality receivables books.

The group expects to report results for 2011 in line with market expectations(*) , with sales and margin outperformance at Vanquis Bank offsetting the impact of slightly slower sales in CCD.

Deposit taking

Execution of the retail deposits programme at Vanquis Bank is running ahead of plan. As at 31 December 2011, approximately GBP140m of 1, 2, 3 and 5 year fixed-rate deposits had been taken at interest rates of between 3.15% and 4.65%. These rates are consistent with an all-in average cost of less than 6% as previously indicated. Vanquis Bank is well on-track to achieve its target of funding 80% of its receivables book with deposits by the end of 2012.

Headroom on the group's committed debt facilities at 31 December 2011 amounted to approximately GBP290m which, together with the retail deposit programme at Vanquis Bank, is sufficient to fund maturities and projected growth into 2013.

Commenting on the final quarter of the year, Peter Crook, Chief Executive, said:

"I am pleased to report that the group had a good finish to 2011 and expects to report results in line with market expectations. The retail deposits programme at Vanquis Bank is now fully established and, most importantly, the credit quality of both businesses is strong as we enter 2012."

* Market expectations in this announcement represent a consensus group profit before tax for 2011 of GBP159.5m based on the average of forecasts published by 18 equity research analysts.


I see the brokers are beginning to notice this morning.Pity , I was hoping for another dip to pick some more up.

[wad collector] 19/12/2011 11:54

Hard to imagine this is really going to bottom out at 745.As you point out is yielding 7.5% now , prospective 8% on next yrs forecasts.

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Peel Hunt
13-12-11 BUY 162.69 89.24 69.99 178.21 98.05 76.90

[essentialinvestor] 15/12/2011 09:24

jon you raised some very valid points in post 261
which appears to have been ignored as a discussion point.

[jonwig] 15/12/2011 09:22

Slogs - at some point I might buy the ords too. But the bonds are in my ISA and happy to hold them there to 2016.

[slogsweep] 15/12/2011 08:49

Jon wig

I also hold bonds which have done well but at some point I may switch
to equity. Yields are about same now but shares may be heading for £8
which would be a possible swap point, though chart tells me 7.45 could be the
bottom.

Would expect premium on bonds to erode as 2016 gets nearer and accrued interest
builds up. Negative sentiment should affect shares but not bonds, the management have survived under potentially more hostile governments and the look a lot better bet than most of the rest of the market.

[wad collector] 12/12/2011 14:24

Added some more at 961.It has been a while since I have been so heavy here.I view the latest ones as trading rather than long term.