Produce Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 30/3/2015 20:20

This is good news not bad. It will likely result in improved prices.

[battlebus2] 30/3/2015 20:14

All good and points to my thoughts that there is value at the current share price, may add more in the morning.

[metier9] 30/3/2015 20:11

Directors bought 125k shares so far and 25k options used.

[battlebus2] 30/3/2015 20:10

More good news with the CEO buying 25k of shares at 131.5p and another director exercising options over 25k and giving them to his wife.

[battlebus2] 30/3/2015 12:00

Yes but with low prices comes opportunities which PIL will be in a much better position than most. Reduction in crops is necessary to keep prices at a reasonable level. When the market re-adjusts to the capacity and pricing i think we will see PIL move higher. All imv ofcourse dyor etc....

[mrx9000] 30/3/2015 11:54

BB2: An interesting company, but not good news in regard the low prices...

[metier9] 27/3/2015 12:48

I topped up yesterday and today @128.7. Its possibly to go higher than £2 a share in a good year considering we have spuds from jersey increasing our tonnage.

[battlebus2] 27/3/2015 12:41

I think we should recover quickly to £2 range once confirmation of the early harvest is out.

[battlebus2] 27/3/2015 10:29

Yes great o see the director buying , it should pay to follow suit, welcome onboard topvest great to see you see value here also.

[topvest] 27/3/2015 10:27

I've decided to buy a few now that the interim results weren't too bad and the Jersey potato crop kicks in for H2 with a slightly more positive outlook and an increased dividend. Cheap as chips if these have a better potato year in 2016 than 2015 will be.
Stockopedia QV Rank is 94 which is pretty good.
Director buy today as well.

[battlebus2] 26/3/2015 10:46

I have added at 129, trade not showing yet.

[metier9] 26/3/2015 10:17

With the Jersey acquisition you kind of need to get the potato out of the ground first (May).

They mentioned there has already been a wider cut back in potato planting so should see price improvements going forward.

Im mulling over topping up.

[mach100] 26/3/2015 10:11

Fairly muted reaction to poor results thankfully. The dividend increase is a good signal. The Jersey acquisition was supposed to be immediately earnings enhancing but the company is taking time to swallow it successfully.

GB Weekly Average Price, 2014 Crop
115.18
121.81
124.34
125.70
▲
(% change)
-8%
6%
2%
1%

Potato prices seem to be recovering in the last month which might be a seasonal thing. The deflationary environment and the continued pressure on the UK's big four to discount are not good news however.

[metier9] 26/3/2015 09:48

The cash is about the same as last year but with a lot higher dividend this year. The Tern site was sold post period end so add £2m to the accounts. The Jersey acquisition benefits will start in May. I do wonder if the admin costs already contain some of the Jersey work which would imply the results would of been better considering the next half we get the income.

[battlebus2] 26/3/2015 08:26

Happy to stick with PIL , results as expected but they did increase the dividend as a mark of their faith in the co. As i said earlier lesser co's will go to the wall and opportunities will arise and the pressure on their market will not last for ever imv.

[battlebus2] 09/3/2015 21:50

Yes Metier we aren't just a potato co. Results wont be good but i have faith with time we will return to growth. Who knows what opportunities will arise as lesser co's won't make it through this squeeze.

[metier9] 09/3/2015 21:37

If interested:



hxxp://www.potato.org.uk/knowledge-hub/newsletters/potato-weekly

They also have daffodils which are ahead so some solace.

The prices appear 2011/2012 area but would need to check total tonnage now compared to back then.

I've not noticed the Greenvale potatoes (produce brand) discounted in Tescos yet but they do appear to be selling (min half empty each time I've seen them). (£2 per bag)

[castleford tiger] 09/3/2015 19:43

the price is as low as 40.00 a ton ex farm.
retail 25 kilos 4/6 pounds a bag as low as 3.50 at farm shops.

cracking winter planting for earlies and as I said jerseys are now available at about 2.00 a pound wholesale.
silly to say it but we are too dry here in Yorkshire for the time of the year.
weather will catch up and possibly disprupt main crop planting.

Its a pure weather gamble year to year.
without knowing what price they pay for what % its a gamble.
results for first half due this month?

tiger

[shanklin] 09/3/2015 12:47

At Morrisons recently, we have twice been able to buy 12.5kg of potatoes for under £2. The potatoes have been absolutely fine and keep for months.

There is obviously a major over-supply issue.

[mach100] 09/3/2015 12:39

Thanks Castleford. Interesting input! I do worry about the supermarket squeeze on suppliers. I hope the company is structurally strong enough to work through it and that most of the bad news is in the price.

[castleford tiger] 09/3/2015 12:24

Guys I am in this industry and its a blood bath. massive over supply and mults forcing prices down,
I went negative on this 6 months ago at 260p ( see iii ) I don't post here much.
As for comments like JPMO being earnings enhancing from day 1 ............do people understand this company?
Jersey crop started about 2 weeks ago and runs to Late June.
Its not a good sign for prices if there are plenty from Cyprus/Egypt/Italy/Majorca about...........especially coming onto a weak old crop market.
This company could become chicken feed for Total produce but at what price.
Can someone tell me what the "biological assets are".
Quite heavy with debt I need to see numbers first. The fact that they feel tear end profit will be way down with 6 months to go ( and a possible 5 million profit from JPMO) Does worry me.
I have no position here long or short. YET

Tiger

[topvest] 30/1/2015 19:45

I would like to see the interim results before assessing whether this is worth buying. Anyone seen the latest forecast result from brokers following the downgrade?

[battlebus2] 29/1/2015 20:49

Topvest i fell asleep on this one, every now and again you need a lesson to wake you up to the dangers of the stock market, it's all to easy to get complacent.
FWIW i do believe over time we have a decent business though as others point out it's not just market forces at work.

[hutch_pod] 29/1/2015 20:26

Thought it might actually fall further but i guess it was already low so it looks more like a recovery play than one to exit fast, perhaps.

[topvest] 29/1/2015 20:14

Hmm glad I wasn't tempted here. Will await the interim results now for signs of stabilisation. They may be a cracking buy at some point, but not quite yet. Too much uncertainty at the moment.