Produce Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 23/3/2017 08:02

Looks like there is a bit of a clear out with new management. Not what we hoped for though. Anyway, outlook pretty robust and dividend edged-up again.

[catsick] 23/3/2017 07:57

Yes not what I was hoping for and not even hinted at, I cant get my head around why a potato producer has a problem with high prices, Ok they buy in a lot but they are also major producers and should be coining it in in this environment ...

[topvest] 23/3/2017 07:54

Interim results are a bit of a shock. Mild profit warning as well. Outlook better. Seems like they should have announced this earlier. Down we go today.

[mathewawood] 20/3/2017 10:43

cyfran

Thanks for the interesting reply.

[cyfran101] 17/3/2017 14:24

I did say this is long term. I don't base this view on the current valuation of potatoes as you have stated above.

[cyfran101] 14/3/2017 19:34

Play on Water

I don't know if you've seen the film The Big Short? Michael Burry is a fund manager who was first to note that the sub prime market was going to cause the 2008 "credit crunch" At the end of the film it notes his current investments are all deployed around water.

When you look into the strategy he is not investing in water companies etc as he is aware that there is no method of trading water to capitalise on the finite amount of quality water in the world and the growing population/climate change long term trends.

Now he has looked at this and thought that if I can't trade water I can instead invest in area that depend heavily on water and his investments are not in potatoes but almond plantations in California. Almonds need an very high level of water per nut produced in an area that has drought issues. Invest in the best plantations and long term you will reap the rewards as these almonds can then be traded.

We can extrapolate to a certain extent as potatoes are 80% water and one of the few vegetables that we don't rely on imports as our country has optimal conditions. These are tradeable items and therefore as water becomes more of an issue this is a de facto play on water.

[catsick] 14/3/2017 13:51

This seems to becoming a hot potato ahead of results ...

[mathewawood] 13/3/2017 12:01

"Play on water" could you explain please.

[cyfran101] 09/3/2017 23:54

Short term: Benefits from pounds slide.Medium term: Pounds slide offset by labour issues but further acquistions expected.Long term: Play on water.

[bruceylegs] 09/3/2017 15:08

Interims next week?

Testing the 200p threshold today.

[catsick] 11/2/2017 18:04

Agreed its the margin thats important to us on the 80 percent that are not our own grown, these are not really brought on the open market though we are contracted with the farmers and do a lot of the harvest/process/transport/bagging etc , the nature of the agreements with the farmers is not 100pct clear so its difficult to predict what the margin will do in this environment, high prices should be good for everyone but some guidance from the company would be welcome. Also this new agreement with tesco seems to fix the margin all the way down the chain so it may be that some chunk of the business does not benefit from a higher price.

[jon123] 11/2/2017 05:21

I've noticed the price of spuds has gone up recently now I know why

[catsick] 10/2/2017 22:13

Prices are running 100 pounds a ton higher than this time last year for many varieties of spuds, just on the 100k tons they grow themselves that would equate to a 10m gbp windfall, or 20 pct of market cap, now clearly tesco will take their ounce of flesh and there will be a reason why the higher prices dont feed through but these shares must get some benefit from the boost in prices

[catsick] 07/2/2017 09:13

This is looking excellent, after the glut of 2014 which carried forward to 2015 we are now in a very tight market for 2016/2017 prices are running 50 pct higher than last year and 100 pct higher than the year before, plus we have squeezed out a lot of operational efficiencies in the time being, even on the glutted market numbers we are trading on a low multiple, I think we are in a great position going forwards and will see a major re rating over the next 12 months

[bamboo2] 06/2/2017 08:25

Trying to deploy here some of the cash from netd sale on Friday, but have to order.

[battlebus2] 03/2/2017 17:43

Looks like the last block of shares has changed hands.

[bamboo2] 03/2/2017 15:23

Got my time machine fixed. ;-)

[battlebus2] 03/2/2017 14:13

Good timing yet again BAMBOO2....

[battlebus2] 03/2/2017 11:29

What I mean is the whole sector is seeing prices rise including the price of spuds so depends on what prices we pay etc.

[felix99] 03/2/2017 11:02

Well unless we now grow something other than potatoes or daffodils I am not sure how a lettuce shortage will help !

will people buy potatoes instead of lettuce?

One thing for sure though a couple of years down the line I think with Brexit we will be trying to grow everything ourselves as it will be whole lot cheaper than importing through EU red tape . Any businesses out there that are listed that do have greenhouses to grow veg etc?

[battlebus2] 03/2/2017 09:31

Lol hope so, shortage of lettuce etc pushes prices up, hopefully we are still on the right side of that.

[bamboo2] 03/2/2017 09:20

Bought a few here, have today as a turn day. Hope I got the direction right. :-)

[greg the grinch] 27/1/2017 14:11

No worries. This is a growth stock.