Probability Share Discussion Threads

[trentendboy] 02/4/2013 15:48

Director buying by the looks of it.

Got to be a good signal

Still surprised this has not moved forward yet.

[trentendboy] 16/3/2013 19:27

Check the 888 thread for posts on the predicted size of mobile gaming.

World leader just sat here.

[trentendboy] 14/3/2013 22:21

Wise words - the agreement they are signing with other parties fills some of this gap.

They are doing everything right but this is a crucial period.

Still accumulating.

[the analyst] 14/3/2013 20:15

In a growing market, they could actually lose market share and still grow their revenues impressively year on year. If they were to gain market share, though, then the growth could be huge. It could quite easily reach 100%+ pa

Thinking about it, the Italian market is starting from scratch, so it's actually impossible to lose market share in that part of the world.

But yes, I think that the only real danger here is competition.

If PBTY want to become a 'major' player, then I think they will need to improve on the quality of their games. If they do that, they will find that the KPIs improve, customers will be more loyal, spend more, recommend to friends etc. In turn, that would result in them winning more B2B contracts, gaining market share, having more cash to create even better games...

Don't get me wrong, the games are not at all bad as they stand. Perfect for the Italian market. But, they don't yet play as well as the slots in Vegas. Partly, that is because of the limitations of the technology, but partly, it may be because their game designers are not the cream of the crop.

Mind you, these days it takes a huge development team to produce a game that can make it in Vegas - mathematicians, musicians, graphic designers, UX/UE developers, the list goes on - it's all in the attention to detail.

[leedslad001] 14/3/2013 18:19

will let you decide that.

[trentendboy] 14/3/2013 17:48

So what is the downside? PBTY lose market share as the big boys muscle in? Are they just too small to survive? Competitive lead being erroded?

[leedslad001] 14/3/2013 16:12

a good summary and spot on hope they can hang on without takeover just yet. need to add more. lol

[the analyst] 14/3/2013 15:54

Yes, I was looking at the Playtech results earlier today too.

A company like PBTY, with its strong growth story could represent a very good future acquisition target for them, imo. There would be big cost-savings for Playtech (i.e. listing costs, director costs, staff, marketing) and no doubt it would be earnings enhancing from the start, even if they bought them right now.

It would also bring in further skills and know-how for Playtech - worth its weight in gold.

Worth noting that Playtech are currently valued at around 6.4x revenue. Made me ask myself about what sort of valuation PBTY could command, if they continue for another year an then get acquired next summer.

This years Q4 is about to be announced and might well come in showing around £2.5m revenue. Next years Q4 should be much higher when you consider the recent contracts, acquisitions and the Italian venture. Possibly a Nevada contract or two and the Caliente deal adding more on top, if either or both come off.

So, I would expect Q4 next year to come in at around £4m revenue - a run-rate that equates to annual revenues of £16m pa, plus a growth story to boot.

By then, if acquired at a multiple of just 4x, that would be £64m. Equating to around 200p per share. At a 6x revenue multiple, it suddenly jumps to 300p per share. would they pay more than that? Possibly, especially if revenues do grow by 50%+ over the coming year, we could be looking at a multiple of 8x revenue (400p per share)

Plenty of upside, it seems. My conservative target is 140p if they get taken out this year, or 200p+ if they can hold out until 2014., but I am hoping for much more...

[leedslad001] 14/3/2013 15:18

Must be a few gambling companies having a look at taking over pbty. Would be peanuts to buy this company even if they paid a big premium to the share price now.

[rambutan2] 14/3/2013 15:15

PTEC's finals out today. Needless to say, they are keen on mobile expansion. Here are a couple of snippets...

Mobile

The growth of mobile continues to outperform all other product channels. The success by different operators has led to significant investments by the Company to ensure that it captures the market leading position in the space. Following the acquisition of Mobenga, the market leader in mobile sports betting, the Company has initiated an innovative internal programme, called the mobile hub, converging mobile sports betting and mobile gaming products into one offering. Enabled by mobile touch screen functionality, the new mobile hub creates an exciting new experience for players, with the same products that are available through other interactive channels and share the same liquidity poker and bingo pools and jackpots. It also creates for the first time in our industry the ability to acquire players through the sports betting vertical and then offer other verticals within the same application, maximising the return on invested marketing. Playtech's experience so far is that mobile presents an incremental opportunity as revenues, margins and activity levels are higher compared with other interactive channels. Mobile remains a key focus for the Company and development continues of the next generation of the mobile offering that will be even more exciting and appealing to a larger audience...

After excluding the impact of acquisitions in 2011 and 2012, adjusted operating expenses were 25% higher (at Eur145m), mainly due to increased employee-related costs as the Group invested in its operations. As the market is seeing a very strong trend towards mobile, Playtech has invested further resources into this channel across all product verticals. Playtech has also secured its position in the social gaming market, by signing a software license agreement with Skywind Holdings, providing the Company with a wide range of both social gaming software and real money software, primarily focussed on the rapidly expanding social gaming market and strengthening the Company's mobile gaming product range respectively.

[rambutan2] 14/3/2013 14:35

Yes, would appear that the Yanks are more excited by the prospects than the Brits - typical!

"We are pleased to expand our mobile portfolio to include real-money gambling. We anticipate that real-money gambling will continue to gain momentum globally and believe that with this offering, Glu is well positioned to capitalize to the extent that additional markets adjust regulations," said Niccolo de Masi, Chief Executive Officer of Glu Mobile. "We plan to leverage Probability's extensive partner network to further extend Glu's successful original IP to new demographics."

[rambutan2] 14/3/2013 11:47

According to the press the launch of slots led to an increase in online gaming spending in the Italian casino market of 80% with € 18.2 M compared to Febraury 2012 when it was only € 10.1 M.

Indeed following the launch of online gaming slots in the Italian market in last December 2012, they have become by far the most popular casino game replacing casino table games that for over a year had been the sole casino offering on Italian licensed platforms...

[trentendboy] 14/3/2013 10:30

All correct. The herd will arrive in good time I am sure. I am steadily accumulating ahead of results. Broker coverage is low but once that kicks in the rest will follow.

[leedslad001] 14/3/2013 09:51

Well under radar at the moment. Lets us buy on the cheap before the herd arrives and they will. :-)

[joestraughan] 14/3/2013 09:47

Wake up pbty holders!

Another one for you - I think your share price might wake up too! ;-)

[joestraughan] 14/3/2013 09:38

one for pbty holders and rambutan! Looking positive.

[leedslad001] 14/3/2013 08:19

There is more than one player in every field

[bbluesky] 13/3/2013 21:48

Playtech goes live with mobile Bingo application for Sky Bingo

"The success story of Playtech's mobile Bingo product continues with the launch of iOS with such a strong brand as Sky Bet. We continue to set new standards in this growing space and are adding incredible value to our licensees," stated Shimon Akad, VP Operations. Shimon went on to add, "The roll out of this platform on the back of Android last year and the imminent launch of HTML5; plus on-going mobile/tablet development will drive us and our licensees forward to even greater heights. Not only do we offer the World's largest Bingo Network, but we also ensure it is accessible to players anywhere, anytime."

which leaves PBTY where?

[trentendboy] 13/3/2013 19:43

It is all about the mobile. Pbty have a lead and they are in Italy. They supply white labels to a lot of places.

The market caps are around a billion difference.

Think the future of gaming

[bbluesky] 13/3/2013 19:15

Q. What has Probability got that Playtech hasn't?

[leedslad001] 04/3/2013 15:46

All very promising. where's my funds. :-)

[joestraughan] 04/3/2013 12:38

not a holder - but looks positive!

[leedslad001] 01/3/2013 08:57

Could be an interesting year. Looking to top up when funds allow.