Probability Share Discussion Threads

[ceohunter] 04/2/2013 09:46

The directors of ANGLE plc (AIM: AGL), Xenetic Biosciences (AIM: XEN), AFC Energy (AIM: AFC) and Probability Plc (AIM: PBTY) will be presenting on Wednesday 13th February 2013

Venue: Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB (Charles Suite)
The presentations will start at 6:00pm and finish at approx 8:00pm. After the presentations are complete the directors will also be available to take questions during a free canapé and wine reception.

REGISTER HERE:

[lucky_punter] 30/1/2013 12:33

Specialist software firm Probability (LON:PBTY) has raised £2.8mln from institutional investors, in an oversubscribed placing, as it pursues its growth strategy.

[the analyst] 30/1/2013 11:03

I'm looking at the placing and seeing it as a 15% discount. It looks like a few large shareholders got wind of the placing and sold into it, back when the share price was 68p+

It might be that they bought the shares back during the placing - a common trick which can make them a few quid, but more than that, it transfers funds to the company, from the shareholding public.

Pleased they got the cash, though.

[leedslad001] 30/1/2013 10:42

How would they know in advance that it was going to be oversubscribed?

[1356] 30/1/2013 10:35

My post at 689 was very bullish, as I'm long here and excited by the prospects. That said this placing has taken the edge off it.

Naively I'd overlooked the cash-burn, as looking at that would have shown an obvious need for finance. £1.1m spent on marketing in one quarter, and just £700,000 cash left.

So this was a necessary need for funds. I'm annoyed as i thought I'd bought in at a time when the company could finance expansion with its own reserves - but I've bought in too early. That said, I still look on with optimism.

As for the "oversubscribed" bit - that should be taken with a pinch of salt. If it was so over subscribed, why the 5.1% discount? The PR team love companies to add "oversubscribed" to a placing RNS. It's simply the default message.

[fuiseog] 29/1/2013 11:04

Yes, I would have had a few more at the price they got it for!

[leedslad001] 29/1/2013 10:19

Don't forget this was oversubscribed so the inst were wanting more. thats also a good sign!

[trentendboy] 29/1/2013 08:39

The got this funding away at a decent price that should put a floor on the share price and as pointed out above explains why the share price has been held down or slipped in recent months.

The dilution is never ideal but to compete with the big boys PBTY has to exploit its first mover advantage.

Shoring up the balance sheet will also give more confidence to any future clients or partners.

This is good news but it is accepted that this will slow any share price rise.

I expect £1 by the end of the year which is a good return by anyones standards.

All in all this is good news and a fairly small discount. Backing by large institutions is also a strong signal.

Now this is out of the way corporate action might kick off again - bring on the takeover from Ladbrokes or similar.

[fuiseog] 29/1/2013 08:27

With this mornings RNS it's clear why we have share price slippage since the last trading statement: a 13% dilution priced in favour of "both new and existing institutional shareholders". Has some of them been selling down the share price in anticipation of a better deal?

I find it disturbing that it's at a 5.1% discount to an share price thats already well below it's average over the past few months.

Why protest about it? I was considering increasing my position to take advantage of the share price lows. Fortunately I didn't, and I'll be very wary from now on.

When Mr Cohen asserted in the January trading statemant, "We expect to expand our exclusive content offering to more customers in the UK and Italy during 2013 and remain very confident about making further strong progress in the period ahead", he failed to mention that it would be financed by institutions at the expense of PI's.

Maybe I'm wrong, I'd be interested to hear others views?

[the analyst] 28/1/2013 21:55

Great post, 1356 - very interesting

[1356] 25/1/2013 13:32

First mover advantage... ahead of schedule release... a company doing things efficiently and strategically.

Press release here:



Encouraging momentum building operationally, even if the share price may take a while to catch up with events...

[leedslad001] 25/1/2013 13:30

Lots of MA to be had in this sector. Should be an interesting years ahead.

[beeezzz] 25/1/2013 13:04

I knew I sold too early, although the market place is becoming very crowded and other players have very deep pockets.

[trentendboy] 24/1/2013 21:00

Not bad.

Shows strong confidence in the future and he must also have bought the dream (sales pitch)

Got to look to pick up more of these

[leedslad001] 24/1/2013 14:30

Positive appointment. like the, when we move into profit looking sooner than later.

[looby loo] 23/1/2013 14:43

The directors of ANGLE plc (AIM: AGL), Xenetic Biosciences (AIM: XEN), AFC Energy (AIM: AFC) and Probability Plc (AIM: PBTY) will be presenting:

Wednesday the 13th February 2013, Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB (Charles Suite):

[beeezzz] 22/1/2013 16:13

Cheers, I know as soon I sell they will go up, here's too good year.

[leedslad001] 21/1/2013 20:13

Thanks. good luck, i hope to buy another 20k worth over next month.

[beeezzz] 21/1/2013 17:14

Sold out today, moving into OCG looks very promising. GLA here.

[trentendboy] 21/1/2013 08:04

Fair comment. You may well be right looking at it again.

[beeezzz] 19/1/2013 17:08

TEB...Everybody is entitled to there opinion, however, I've been watching pbty since Dec 07 then they were 42½p not even up 100%. No risky rating available for this company.

Carclo have risk rating of 213, since watching Oct 09 @98½p up over 400% so I know which company I like the most, and the less risky IMO.

To put the risk rating in context Tesco are rated at 73.

Good luck with both, will be moving my holding soon, better prospects elsewhere.

[trentendboy] 19/1/2013 13:37

Holding Carclo as well. Certainly as risky as pbty. Hard to know which is riskier. I would say Carclo actually