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PEQ Private Equity

166.75
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Private Equity LSE:PEQ London Ordinary Share GB0000504034 ORD 0.01P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 166.75 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Private Equity Share Discussion Threads

Showing 226 to 245 of 375 messages
Chat Pages: 15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
25/11/2011
21:09
There seems to be quite a lot of money and noise around iPhone App developers.
praipus
07/11/2011
10:39
NAV to 30th Sept down 4.1% to 236.16p. Portfolio fall just 0.6%, the rest of the fall due to a lower US$:
skyship
21/10/2011
13:26
Hi Skyship, yes I think it is important not to forget that returns could be sooner and much greater than expected.

You say: "I am unable to calculate the odds of any return here, no-one can. But it seems to provide value and ticks many boxes.".....Agreed.

So the allocation is circa 2% IMHO and wait patiently for more news on the Twitter IPO :-)

praipus
21/10/2011
06:35
Praipus - firstly, I bought PEQ for 4 reasons:

1. I like the Private Equity sector
2. I want some currency diversification
3. I like the 39% NAV discount
4. I like the possibility of voluntary liquidation

So, the possibility of liquidation is just one of the positive factors going for PEQ.

As to valuation, like other self-liquidation stocks discussed on the SL thread, I look at the Gross Redemption Yield at a range of prices. So with PEQ, I decided merely to make an assumption of a 200p payout after the 2014 continuation vote. I looked to 31st Dec'14, whilst recognising that such a date may be too soon after the vote. My reasoning was that there has to be a possibility of an earlier decision, so the date is perhaps a realistic average.

The GRY% @ 200p (18.7% discount to current 246p NAV) would be 8.75%. To my mind that would be a minimum outcome; but even at that figure it would be an acceptable return.

The GRY% @ 210p (14.6% discount) would be 10.4%.
The GRY% @ 220p (10.6% discount)would be 12.0%.
The GRY% @ 230p (6.5% discount)would be 13.6%.

I am unable to calculate the odds of any return here, no-one can. But it seems to provide value and ticks many boxes.

skyship
20/10/2011
10:52
Hi Skyship

1) Bitter experience to date and
2) difficulty in establishing a reasonable system for attributing probability to research and analysis and subsequently to position size / asset allocation.

NBPC, RAB and ENG were voluntary liquidations where between trade entry and liquidation the NAV plunged and the liquidators are now either unlikely to pay any more or definitely will not.

However I remain open minded and would like to understand the process you use to link facts and analysis to arrive at 70% probability of achieving NAV at liquidation?

praipus
19/10/2011
16:55
Praipus

Sorry - I need to seriously question your figures above. They would indicate that you would throw the dice on an investment with just a 40% chance of success!

That would not be an investment - it would be a wild punt on the blackjack table.

I know that is not your style, so could you perhaps reconsider your numbers with a more realistic assessment. Surely a 60% chance of success has to be the minimum figure you would contemplate even to play the game? The converse is a 40% chance of a loss after all.

skyship
18/10/2011
12:30
Chance of success 70%?

My take is:

20% chance of NAV or more being achieved.
20% chance or break even (on share purchase) or up to NAV being achived
20% chance of just your money back
20% chance of a small loss
20% chance or wipe out.

If you use gearing then you need an additional outcome for loss exceeding investment.

praipus
15/10/2011
07:49
Praipus - interesting that Benjamin Graham Formula. As it states it is intended for arbitrage deals before/after takeover bids. I've adjusted for a conventional market purchase, applying an example with PEQ:

Current security price 1.48

Chance of success on the deal 70%

Possible downside 0.48

Holding period to achieve gain 36months

Possible upside 1.00

==========================================

The Result is:

Return if successful = 67.6% (NB: that = 18.8% compound over 3yrs)

Annual Return = 12.5%

Presumably that difference is accounted for by the risk assessment.

12.5%pa looks good to me..........

skyship
14/10/2011
20:49
When do the underlying get revalued? I.e. the one's showing currently as last valued in June?
praipus
14/10/2011
20:37
Hmm..sp is looking tempting...time for a nibble
badtime
14/10/2011
20:19
Lol 13%....I doubt that.

Thank you for reminding me of your asset allocation framework.

Its similar to Benjamin Grahams Intrinsic Risk Arbitrage formula:

praipus
14/10/2011
15:27
Just remembered you're UP 15% YTD - You don't need me to tell you anything about this business......
skyship
14/10/2011
15:09
Praipus - Re Allocations & Targets - I see I posted this to you almost exactly a year ago on the SHA thread. It's a sort of system:

=============================================
Praipus - thnx for that. As to your question, I believe Simon, dasv & others (possibly enviro) were discussing this subject just last week on the SHA thread.:

For me %age asset allocation depends upon an assessment of:

# High/Medium or Low Risk – scores: 10/15/25
# High/Medium or Low Return – scores: 12/8/5
# High/Medium or Low Conviction – scores: 12/8/5

Score range: 20 – 49
Minimum Score for investment = 25
Asset allocation:
25/30 = up to 3.3%
31/36 = up to 5%
37/42 = up to 7.5%
43/49 = up to 10%

As an example, let's take my trade this afternoon in UKRO. I already had a holding and decided to top-up with a mere 3000 shares, because I deem the holding just Medium under all definitions. That score of 31 points should signal a 5% allocation, but I moved lower due to US$ denomination and poor marketability. I therefore elected for a lowly 3.3% allocation.

Envirovision's other find though, HPEQ, scored top marks in all categories, so I ended up with a 9% allocation. FPEZ, the zero I've just sold, was another high scoring play, but I've sold a 9% allocation due to the rising price reducing the further upside.
========================================================

skyship
14/10/2011
13:36
Skyship I post monthly performance and number of holdings here:



The holdings are based on what the activist/deep value investors do or those mentioned on your SL/JDT threads of course:



As for amount to allocate from .5% minimum up to 10-13% maximum.

It is the weakness in my portfolio I do not know how institutions assign probability to potential outcomes. Or if Ben Graham or someone has come up with a formula.

praipus
14/10/2011
12:48
Praipus

# So seriously, how many stocks do you on average hold in your main portfolio? 99% of what I do is in my SIPP as our capital went into our house when we retired out here to SW France. I usually hold 20-25 stocks in my SIPP, split between:

# core confidence holdings @ 10%
# overweight allocations @ 7.5%
# Standard allocations @ 5%
# specs @ 2.5%

At the moment all the specs have gone and the weightings trimmed so as to raise cash levels - currently 25%.

RE UKRO - I sold too early last time. Out at 3.05 if I recall, two weeks later they were up to c3.50. Not tempted back in again at the moment because of the political situation out there, as well as the wider markets of course!

skyship
14/10/2011
11:40
Fascinating "over diversification":) yes possibly. However if I had held 20% of the port here I would now be down 2% across the whole portfolio and 13% on the holding.

Agreed in term of company, though I sense you and Enviro leave me holding the baby...lol....at times UKRO for example :)

praipus
14/10/2011
11:18
Praipus - I assume you meant over 20%, as over 2% would have suggested over-diversification in yr portfolio!

Glad to be in good company here - now the two of you go and take a look at LMS - my favourite Private Equity play at the moment...

skyship
13/10/2011
11:28
Yes that was a tasty tender wasn't it. £2.23 from memory. Since then the NAV has increased to £2.46 or more so the next tender could be equally tasty.

I sold out in the summer at £1.75 but have recently bought back and wondered if you still held, hence the mention.

I'm surprised we have not seen any of the big three increasing their holding at this level.

envirovision
13/10/2011
10:55
Hi Skyship, I bought far too many at 171p. It was over 2% of the portfolio so sold a few then tendered the maximum possible to make a 29% profit.

I still have too many but I'm comfortable holding based on the possibilities:
1.IPO's of the 500 underlying
2.voluntary liquidation should it become necessary
3.windup
4. the fact Laxey, QVT and Weiss are holders whom I suspect will not let the NAV share price differential get too extreme.

Well done on your purchase great patience and excellent timming.

praipus
13/10/2011
10:28
Hi Praipus - bought in here @ 148p today after you and Enviro mentioned them on the SHA thread. Could be a line of stock to work through here as I see someone paid 148p yesterday too.

Personally I suspect they may opt for voluntary liquidation at some stage, well ahead of the continuation vote in 3yrs time. Either way, the 39% NAV discount surely provides attractive underpinning to the current share price

skyship
Chat Pages: 15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  Older

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