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[kvu] 18/11/2004 21:05

Stoic

No advice intended as I am sure you are a very competent trader....but be careful of out the money puts. Those loose a lot of value very quickly even three weeks before expiry and should this market go sideways, they will be very hard to get out of.

I nearly bought the $41 puts as they had more intrinsic value and gained value far quicker on any fall, but decided against just because I felt the cash out lay for more intrinsic value on a shorter term play wasn't worth it. If i were looking to hold to expiry then maybe.

Best

KVU

[stoic warrior] 18/11/2004 20:54

And I just took more QQQXM (Dec 39's) @.65.

[kvu] 18/11/2004 20:41

Just got hit on my final purchase of qqq puts on the $40 strikes for DEC. $1.10 for the last lot making my average $1.22.

[kvu] 18/11/2004 20:39

The spx, ndx are all showing ending diagonal patterns (ndx looks much better)which are clearly visible on the 15min and 30min charts. I would paste but I am having difficulties pasting charts tonight......

The qqq's look totally "nakered".....anyone looking for cheap puts with high poosible gain should look to short the dec $40 or $41 puts. For more longer term look at the january ones.....you'll pick them up very cheap around now for totally limited risk being options and not futures.

[kvu] 18/11/2004 17:13

added a few more jan qqq puts. Thats 30% of my entire puts position on that i was looking to add over the next week or so. I am keeping the rest for more confirmed actions.

[wonging] 18/11/2004 16:07

spx looks like an abc off yesterdays low complete

[kvu] 18/11/2004 15:36

Mr E.

KBH looks good, but i think you may get to use your "powder" once more....not sure just yet, but i think a test of 92 is def possible. Lets wait and see.....i am keeping an eye on this little number too. I like the look of BARC in the UK on options as well for a short at the moment, but i am going to do a few more charts and see what i think after that.

BKX usually leads and its rolling over nicely so I am feeling happy with puts at this level.

Best

KVU

Wonging.....i dont like the futures at these kind of junctures as its difficult to close if the position gets far away from you......all's good if it goes in your favour, but I aint to good with stops so i use futures for scalping.

[wonging] 18/11/2004 15:16

kvu, i added more spx shorts at 1183.75, ndx looking weak

[kvu] 18/11/2004 15:08

Bought Dec and Jan puts on both the QQQ's and MER. The MER puts were the $60 strikes and the QQQ puts were the $40 strikes on the opening break up.
Could have got them cheaper yesterday, but felt better doing it today after seeing a few supports being broken on the nas and QQQ's to the downside on the shorter term charts.

[kvu] 17/11/2004 20:38

MER and QQQ's look good now for a play on in the money put options for january. I would say wait for a retest of the highs on the QQQ's on lower volume. I ultimately would like a top around $58 MER or 39.60 on the qqq's. The Jan or dec $41 puts look like the best one to play. Good being patient.

[stoic warrior] 17/11/2004 18:57

Closed my Dec put for a small loss on NY's open; glad I cashed in the Nov put yesterday ... with the double top today to 10-6 I'm watching to see if it's 3rd time lucky or continued drop from here ... I shall be poised to go either way but I suspect down ...

[energyi] 17/11/2004 15:47

so close to 10,600, I reckon it has gonna go thru.
If only briefly

[torturedsoul] 16/11/2004 20:15

watch for a backtest of the h&s neckline imho...

[collection agency] 16/11/2004 20:09

nice thread E

[energyi] 16/11/2004 19:44

Yes, SW.
These low Vol. prices give option buyers a chance.

[stoic warrior] 16/11/2004 19:41

Hello energyi, et al ... good to find a Put-specific thread and glad to find like minded souls. ... I mentioned on "view" last week that I endulge US options and on FX$$ yesterday that I had SPX put positions ... I have just closed my STPWP from yesterday for +65% ... still holding Dec S&P put, same strike ... QQQ seems to be trying to hold out so I've just taken a put on the Dec 37's (QQQXK) @.25 ...

[energyi] 16/11/2004 19:39

The big boys normally like to ramp
the market into the option expiry.
Where's MaxPain?

[kvu] 16/11/2004 19:23

Very possible mr e.....there is a real fight on at the moment at 1553 and 1178 on the nas and spx respectively.

Which way will the cookie crumble?

Nas still on uptrend support and spx looks like a "c" wave drop could happen, but we jsut saw a 5 wave decline on the 5 min chart from 1179.75 to 1176 which could signal the completion of the down move. 60 min support on NAS at 1552 area which iswere we are now. Holding fire at the moment till a break either way.

[kvu] 16/11/2004 18:42

TS

That could well happen...its just the spx and the qqq's dont look that convincing for a break down so i think its too risky to hold a short for any significant move. A scalp maybe.

Lets wait and see what happens.

Later....seeing a lot of support on the qqq's. The ES and NQ futures are seeing lots of test selling that is being bought, so i'd be very careful being short. Something just doesnt feel right for me.

[torturedsoul] 16/11/2004 18:16

nyse is being supported while it's being hit with heavy selling.

nyse trin is 1.7+ now and has been rising pretty much all session.

this is looking like bear flag like action which will break to new lows around 3:20pm est when the insitutions come out to play. seen it before, no doubt will see it again.

[kvu] 16/11/2004 18:10

The qqq's and the spx are showing three wave corrective patterns at the moment. There is/was a rising wedge in play for the last few hrs which looked bearish, but it could have broken to either side and it looks like it has more chance of breaking to the upside. If it does then this would have been the larger 4th wave corrective pattern i was looking for and we could be heading back to the highs for the spx and qqq's. The nas may not make a new high, but the spx I feel still needs to.