Premier Utilities Trust Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 15/2/2005 16:52

Bought some March 11,000 puts today, at near 200points/

These are the first puts I have bought since I took profits (on puts)
in January. Anyone else jumping back in on the SHORT side ?

[blackbear] 14/2/2005 22:51

look at the 10yr dow chart... what bear market?

[sampsonp] 14/2/2005 22:45

if you can get stock to borrow wnl looks like the lottery.

[a.fewbob] 14/2/2005 22:42

Just out of interest,

What would chartists make from the Dow reaching its previos high? We are reasonably close.

[energyi] 14/2/2005 10:34

ANOTHER INTERESTING CHART



"Under present circumstances, Lindsay's Model gives us an estimated final top due in June 2005, potentially between June 3rd and June 7."

@:

[tpaulbeaumont] 07/1/2005 16:28

nice +ve divergence on SPX 15mins too

[kvu] 07/1/2005 16:22

The ndx supports my theory that a bottom could be in place for 2.5 days as a throw-under bottom seems to be in place again with the cash chart pattern.

[kvu] 07/1/2005 16:14

For the first time in ages the spx futs and the cash seem to be showing different chart patterns. It seem easier to follow the cash index at the moment as it shows a more clear pattern with a three spike bottom on the 60 min charts on rising rsi, which I use as one signal for a possible short term bottom.

Its always hard to pin point bottoms, but as long as you cover shorts on bottoms and not go long then you are fine. I am looking to see what happens next to decide how to trade this as going short now as an opening trade seems rather suicidal if playing with stops on futures etc. Some people like labelling three wave corrections with a "B Wave" that under-throws the low of the ending wave 5 of the previous larger move and then a sharp "C Wave" that over throws the high of wave A, but I dont favour these counts. Therefore the spx cash putting in a lower low today indicates the three wave correction has just begun upwards if we take out some resistance points. I guess people that are short from higher up have the best play by just sitting and watching.

[collection agency] 06/1/2005 18:32

TS, it was "about" amongst the unwashed in 03, I really tried to look at it with an open mind but I agree its all tosh. Even mohair was better.......

[torturedsoul] 06/1/2005 18:24

surely all they (poly trend lines) are is curve fits to price data?

as more price data is entered the best fit of the curve changes.

when the price snaps out of the curve you'll be able to see it anyway and when it doesnt the curve is just streched to accomodate.

seems pretty pointless to me. got to do something to justify those subs though i suppose...

[collection agency] 06/1/2005 18:20

the poly lines tend to have a habit of moving to suit...

[energyi] 06/1/2005 18:09

You can get a three months TRIAL for FREE.

Im on one now

[tpaulbeaumont] 06/1/2005 17:45

how so josereyes?

[josereyes] 06/1/2005 17:32

E carvers charts are excellent.

[tpaulbeaumont] 06/1/2005 17:29

lol no, wtf is that, its an eye-sore, those arc's can be dragged to fit any price action surely!

[energyi] 06/1/2005 17:06

I am impressed by Bob Carver's charts:

SPX:

DJI:

Anyone esle use them?

[collection agency] 05/1/2005 20:58

Kept the hedge on till 1530ish and then started removing longs and letting shorts run on the downside of the spikes, went hedged again until 2015 and removed the longs again, put them back on at 1187, a touch early as I look at it now.

edit, a touch early is a slight understatement.....

[kvu] 05/1/2005 17:54

Ok, I can see the 3rd of 5th Wave complete on the nas, and maybe even the spx,and therefore we should get a break up in micro trend by either a sharp rally or a sideways movement over say 1-2hrs and then another down move to touch the upperside of the down trend containment line before using it as a trampoline and bouncing skyward. I have taken 5 QQQQ Jan $38 calls at $0.95 for a long play. I think we have now seen two of our three spike bottoms in place and medium to long term players with say 5 nas points of 5 handles of the spx as a stop may consider a long at 1569 or 1187 when this was posted.

Best

KVU

later@ 1800: I think the nas may actually have put in a bottom and the spx may be the one that is still possibly left to put in its bottom. Lets wait and see as it hasn't given as clear a signal as the nas.

The micro down trend will break if 1579 on nas and 1191 breaks on the spx. Macro down trend will break if 1584 or 1192 breaks on the spx under my charts.

[torturedsoul] 05/1/2005 17:35

looks like the nyse flood gates are opening.

[torturedsoul] 05/1/2005 17:22

kvu

yep, it's looking more like an end of the move rather than a continuation.

nyse has broken support but it's showing divergence to the other low on intraday timescales but not on the daily.

but i really really dont like the breadth divergence to long it right here.

for me, it all rests on the us$ index. it's on a knife edge here. once that makes up it's mind the indices should run in the opposite direction.

[energyi] 05/1/2005 17:21

Yes. I agree watch the dollar.
It may be in a A-B-C rally, with the A wave underway.
When that completes, the Dow should rally, as the dollar falls for
a bit. When the B wave is over, and the Dollar rallies again,
that may bring the end of this 4th wave in the DOW, if that is what
we are in.

So when? Maybe late Jan, or so we get the end of this drop.
Then a Dow 5th wave into Feb., for a final high on the Dow.
It may come on a touch of this Bolly



.. After that, the whole market comes apart
as the final high on stocks is made, and the Dollar starts a long
descent and/or Bond yields start running up

[kvu] 05/1/2005 17:12

Keep an eye on the EUR/$ as this seems to have bounced short term at a target that i mentioned on the EUR thread of 1.32 which may mean that a retest of 1.3450 or thereabouts might get tested.
The way I see it is this. The down trend on both the spx and nas got broken on yesterday's EOD rally which ended early today. That meant that the new low posted on the NAS touched the topside of the trend line keeping the downmove in shape. Yhis is something that I have used most of my trading life to spot ending patterns. Further more I look on the five minute charts and wait for the same situation to occur on the last 5th wave structure to show a minor 4th wave break the down trend and then touch the downtrend containment line from the topside which is what I refer to as "spooking out the fully margined longs with stops at break even" Soon after that I normally expect a reversal.

Not sure if all that made sense. I will try and post a chart later if I get the chance to show what I mean, but I do expect new lower lows than yesterday on both the spx and nas and since the nas is showing that already without the support of the spx, i feel the spx may spike bottom and rally after touching 1183/85 area or if the nas bounces sharply then the spx may show a failed fifth wave bottom with a low higher than that posted yesterday

Best

KVU

[torturedsoul] 05/1/2005 17:02

kvu

im flat too. im waiting for it to signal direction.

weak dollar is supportive at the moment, but it looks to have done 5waves down on the 10min us$ index chart.

so if the dollar moves up again, im expecting that 7080 nyse support to be smashed and take everything else down with it.

or if we see dollar fall back then it should rally the indices from supports.

[kvu] 05/1/2005 16:59

Ok this might be a silly comment, but when the cash and futures prices are way off, because of yesterday's huge drops, I believe the people who control the futures premiums buy the futures and sell the stocks of the index concerned or vice versa to acheive their targets. I also sometimes notice, although no major work has been done on this theory of mine, that stocks still have a high decline to rise ratio towards market bottoms and vice versa towards tops.

Lets see what happens as I am flat at the moment and just keeping an eye on things.

[torturedsoul] 05/1/2005 16:52

kvu,

spot the odd one out. such bearish divergence between price and breadth is never healthy. especially with low trin, it's a symptom of market tops.

nyse


nas


dow